YM!

I think eventually it’ll normalize as theatrical animation will normalize but for now yeah, don’t think we’ll see a 300m animation until next year if we’re lucky and that’s from Illumination.

I’m not sold on Lightyear opening to 100m OW, it gives me Pikachu/Lego Batman vibes but the double screenings will help Strange.

For stuff with like newer like Shang Chi 2, origins like Blade or sequels that are more so normal sequels like Quantumania or Thor or Wakanda, they should be fine but for event level stuff especially in May suspect weaker legs.

And tbh I think that’s partially why I do think MCU films onward might have larger second weekend drops because of the rush to see it OW and Thursday previews acting like Friday.

Yeah absolutely best case scenario for this thing was like 210m/480m

There’s a difference between being free to stream vs a $20 rental/$30 purchase.

But enough about the Multiverse of Flop how did EEAAO or The Bad Guys do?

Tbf nuance is a odd blind spot here lol. But yes I agree with that statement especially when it’s looking like at least 15 pieces of superhero media at the least a year.

Oof that’s rough. O/U $60m this weekend?

Or Dark Avengers, what ever the lady from FaTWS and Black Widow was planning. I was thinking that could also work for Cap 4 but I think they’ll do Serpent Society and add an Avenger. The title would be Black Widow and Hawkeye: Thunderbolts though. Something like Yelena and Kate trying to uncover the Thunderbolts (prolly Abomination, US Agent, an Iron Man enemy (Hammer or whoever Usnavi is playing in Ironheart), Moonstone (who would be introduced somewhere), Scorpion and maybe one more).

I think if Nope has strong WOM and the trailer is a knockout, I think it’ll have insane legs over the summer. Like one of those old runs of $50m/$200m way back in the 2000s.

To pivot a bit as these past few pages have been kind of a shit show. What’s y’all top five of the summer looking at box office wise? 1. Dominion - $575m 2. Thor 4 - $450m 3. Maverick - $405m 4. Strange 2 - $400m (that sweet sweet fudge with help from Lightyear and Thor) 5. Minions - $250m

Stop feeding the troll, my dude.

WWH is World War Hulk. I can a Black Widow 2 hypothetically being a stealth Thunderbolts movie with Yelena and Kate doing espionage shit (and hopefully becoming a couple as those two were cute together).

As for the MCU doom and gloom talk, I think the franchise will continue to be successful but I think so long as you don’t have eyes in the skies, every MCU film must do 400m/$1b ww cause inflation/EG yadda yadda yadda. I always thought before the blitz got our predictions higher that even with the multiverse stuff/NWH hook, MoM would have likely not been as big as there’s only so much a Doctor Strange sequel (yes it’s multiverse but at its core it’s a Doctor Strange sequel with Wanda) could jump and the May openers with only an Avengers movie and a Guardians movie being the outliers, the multiple was going to be around 2.4x at the absolute most with 2.2-2.3x being the likely range. Strange looks more around the 2.1-2.2 range. I also think with 3 PM previews, movies especially CBMs will become more frontloaded for fear of spoilers. So that played in a factor but at the end of the day I do think there’s some (don’t haha I’m not saying it’s all downhill or everything will flop, I hope people will read the nuance in this as I’m saying some not all) GA fatigue for superhero stuff which should not come as a surprise when there’s at a minimum 8 MCU movies and shows, 4 DCEU movies and a show, and 3 Sony Marvel movies a year especially when including stuff like The Boys and Invinicble too. Hell amongst my friend group who even fell CBM fatigue like myself are still huge fans but I’ve tried to get into both Peacemaker and Moon Knight but haven’t been able to and I think I’m done with shows henceforth apart from the ones that interest me. This doesn’t mean that all superhero movies will flop but I think some slight diminishing returns in the future. Slate wise MCU is fine, Thor and Wakanda will be bigger than Strange due to less baggage and probably more accessible to the GA. The Marvels and Guardians 3 will do the 400m/1b grosses, and Shang-Chi 2 should have a solid jump (albeit more TWS than MOM). Blade (which I suspect will be some form of team up) will do within the 200m-300m range and Quantumania should have a nice jump (275m-335m). But partially because of why Feige is pushing more crossovers for the MCU and most solo non introduced heroes to the plus is because I do think for CBMs more of a shift will be towards the event ones and the newly established will do a bit smaller (kind of like Pixar in the 2010s).

Dude, I’ll say this once. Fuck off with this shit.

Wait, so you’re telling me the film with 3:00 pm previews, a multiverse angle that would’ve likely skewed fan driven and mixed-ish WOM is being frontloaded?! I’m so shocked.

One benefit for Cap 4 is literally nothing important happens in FATWS, you can pretend the show doesn’t exist and the stretch from EG and Cap 4 pretty much fills in blanks.

So who’s distributing this one? Apple or Warner Bros?

I mean yes pandemic recovery is slow but like five months ago in the heat of Omicron, No Way Home did a $800m+ domestic run and nearly $2B with many markets shuttered. If the film is big enough audiences will flock and I’m confident at the bare minimum A2 will top NWH WW. Hell even in the case of older audiences, Top Gun Maverick which skews far more older than Avatwo is tracking at a $100m+ opening so there’s really not much to be too concerned about.

Marcus Theaters is doing a Burger of The Day for The Bob’s Burger Movie as a promotion, the No More Mr. Nice Sides Burger, a bacon double cheeseburger with fries on top.

Still it will benefit from the summer weekdays at play, and Lightyear while will play more older like Sonic 2/ITSV is a different demographic (besides more and more if i were to pick from the likely blockbusters of the summer, it’s the underperformer).

Eh I think Thor and Dominion will eek out the win, but I will say $300m+ seems very likely.

I think Shazam and Puss will be good counterprogramming for Avatar 2, as while I expect it to be the top dog both are accessible enough to act as the Jumanji/TGS or Chipmunks/Holmes. Shazam could do 200m and Puss could go in the mid 100m range.

I can’t see Kraninski direct this because I suspect this to be a 2024 release and the turnaround between it and his next movie IF which also seems likely to be a big budget movie is too short.