If anyone says NWH’s run is disappointing if it doesn’t reach 700m is just being ridiculous. In the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, the fact that this opened to $260m+ and will probably finish $680m+ is pretty damn impressive. (A $700m total is still very likely especially as the big test for numbers is this week) Especially considering most of us including myself thought the pandemic would hinder box office optimism for it.
However that said we’re still in a pandemic. I do think calendar configuration is a big culprit but I do think fears of Omicron probably helped cause legs to be weaker. Sure,
the target 18-34 demographic likely doesn’t give a shit but for families and older audiences it’s more concerning. And they help drive the Christmas and holiday legs. We’re probably not going to see normal numbers for everything apart from a few exceptions until Q4 2022, because whether we like it or not, the pandemic exists and they’re still a lot of people hesitant about moviegoing.
I also think (and I’m going to get disbeliefs, not cools and WTFs for it), the MCU in particular the event movies like NWH are starting to get more frontloaded, mainly in order to avoid spoilers as the 18-34 demographic is much more spoiler averse and the insistence that every MCU film post NWH looks looks shaping up some sort of crossover event and want to see it the first weekend as well as the other demographics like families and the occasional women which helps the MCU aren’t in full return. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if MoM opened to $175m+ but then had legs like Civil War despite weaker competition. I think they’ll naturally be some exceptions as Shang-Chi is an obvious one and I think onward my guesses for the MCU films with stronger legs are probably Wakanda Forever, Quantumania and Blade, as not only are these films should be when the pandemic eases up but the audience to boost the legs will help (Quantumania being families), one being a solo and the former likely being the big conversation piece next year.