YM!

While there’s still another day before I give Dune’s statistics from my theater, it may be overindexing as it’s already 67% of what Shang-Chi and LTBC sold on the Tuesday before release, meaning it would give some crazy numbers like $5.9m-$7.77m previews/$51m-$61m OW, anyone else getting big numbers for Dune?

I thought that at first too as I thought The Batman would take a small silver of families and males but apparently it’s missing out on spring break. Bullet Train would be a good choice for the 3/25/22 slot.

I mean The Flash is bigger than Spider-Verse 2, if anything had more to lose it’s definitely Spider Verse 2. It’s moreso MI7 being the problem.

I mean for those two I get them not wanting spoilers to get out and while MOM has big things it’s nowhere near as big as IW/EG

I’m pretty sure Blade was the October film, my guess is that it’s not ready yet to make a 2023 spot as I think October or February would be the go to months for that film.

If anything the May release makes those 400m+ predictions more plausible.

I was thinking Universal, Sony, and Lionsgate/Summit as the main examples, I’d include Paramount and WB but it does seem clear those two are pivoting towards tentpoles but this is a very great point, especially consider most of the mini majors have been either absorbed like Dreamworks and now MGM by something bigger and receiving a slate cut or gone. Perhaps a lot isn’t the best phrase of words in hindsight but I still think there’s hope for mid budget films still being prevalent in the future. However, one factor I’m curious about is theatrical release and streaming, as I can see it become closer to reality that some streaming releases will get a wide theatrical release before being sent to streaming due to the big names going to streaming (which I do see and understand as a casualty related to the last few years).

Besides tbh, when the mid budget movies truly die out, I think the tentpoles would only realistically have maybe 5-7 years left before they bleed out too.

Besides while I think the shifting in viewing habits like @Porthos isn’t just due to box office trends that has been set up for decades arguably but a combination of a pandemic taking away the older demographics, the noticeable shift to PLFs screenings, a cascade of multiple streaming options with some more successful than others and bad experience with theaters/pricing making home more luxurious has made the shift more apparent. Not to mention with physical media dying kind of hurt longevity. However, I don’t think it’s the end. While if it wasn’t obvious in 2017, that Disney basically used Fox for just more IP and to absorb a competitor, not to survive in a streaming world, there’s still a lot of studios commited to both the theatrical experience and mid budgeted films like Universal as evidenced with not F9 being the sole savior but mid sized hits like Old, Candyman, and Halloween Kills for instance still generating strong revenue, as well as investing big in names like M. Night Shamalyan, Jordan Peele and now Christoper Nolan and it’s clear they’re continuing investing in mid budget films as they know it helps separate them. Same for Sony, while 2021 hasn’t had a major hit for them outside of Venom 2, is still clearly investing in the mid budget film, as evidenced by paying big for the J-Law’s comedy. I don’t think it’s necessarily the end for mid budget fare despite a gloomy outlook as there’s a lot of mid budget films in 2022 that are likely to be big hits.

And even if they don’t I think there’s a lot of adult fare in 2022 that can bode very well.

https://variety.com/lists/varietys-10-animators-to-watch-in-2021/ Now titled: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: The Next Chapter It also seems Mikros Animation (Paw Patrol: The Movie, The Spongebob Movie: Sponge on The Run) is doing the animation. The variety article also hinted at an animation style inspired by Into The Spider Verse and The Mitchells vs The Machines.

Once again, thanks to some major help from @cookie I present to you, the long awaited Y8 totals

Thinking The Batman will likely be third behind Wakanda Forever and Avatar 2 domestically, maybe something like $150m-$175m/$420m-$475m, the hype seems more there than before.

As for the HBO Max affected releases and a non as dominant Covid period: GVK probably an OW around $80m-$100m and Space Jam 2 would’ve done around $50m, and while it’s too soon to say I think Matrix 4 would’ve been a 400m+ domestic hit. I do think Malignant with a proper marketing campaign and no MAX, I think a 20m OW could’ve happened.

Considering at first I was at Dune was destined to die, I think now considering how well it’s tracking as well as the hype it has been garnering, I think in a normal Christmas 2020 barring COVID, it probably would’ve had a $75m-$100m five day imho.

Great for Halloween Kills, just goes to show a dual release works when no one gives a shot about your streaming service, also strong holds for NTTD and Venom.

Imagine being ignorant enough to miss the point on what Eric is saying.

There’s a post in the IASTE thread that explains it. Basically any movie currently not finished with an MPA rating is effected, so yes NWH would likely see a delay with the strike.

I meant like top 40 of the year.

Oh, I mean yeah that too.

I doubt NWH makes my top 40.

Eternals North Shore Cinema Mequon, WI (23 days before previews, 24 days before release) 11/4/21 6:00 - 7/147 7:00 - 46/301 - Ultrascreen 8:00 - 2/147 117% of Thor Ragnarok (T-32/T-33) ($142.77M OW) Considering that, this is the start of presales a day later for both, it is pretty damn impressive that Eternals is doing this well.

I mean the last 4 out 5 Star Wars films have grossed more than the last 4 out of 5 Bond films. The last 4 out 5 Star Wars films also did more than the last 4 out of 5 Potter films. I’m not saying NTTD is doing bad, it’s doing quite good but to say that Star Wars is a dead franchise is laughable.

I think they’ll probably move Black Adam, Flash and Aquaman 2 eventually. My guess is BA takes off the August kick off as Flash takes Aquaman 2’s Christmas slot and Aquaman goes to March or late summer. I think we’ll probably get film announcements at Fandome anyways so I can see a date change or two.