YM!

Did Ant Man 2 blow up after IW? Besides Endgame is the reason why it won’t do insane.

This doesn’t have the hype for $600M nor does it have the benefit of lack of strong family films (Pikachu is doing $150M, Aladdin doing $250M and Pets 2 around $270M) especially with Pets 2, weeks before it. I think it has a strong shot for $400M, and Frozen 2 seems destined for $600M imho.

Even with the Marvel brand, I don’t think it has the visual panache or spectacle for the OS market. Also imagine it’s lower budgeted.

Minions 2 sub $200M? Scoob O/U TLM2?

Also no big blockbusters outside of Eternals and if Godzilla KOTM is loved, they can use it to build up hype. While we are at WB should put Scoob the second weekend of May, more time for legs, Spongebob will die anyways and I doubt Black Widow does more than say TWS numbers.

@cayommagazine Endless Animation’s Super Mario Bros is confirmed to have a Should You Imagine sneak peek attached to it.

It depends on how China reacts to it.

Why not GVK for Christmas? It could drum up some monster business.

I wonder if Detective Pikachu would’ve worked out better as an entirely CG animated WAG/Legendary movie.

Thinking (and following ticket sales) $70M-$80M three day/$90M-$100M four day, with around $230M-$270M DOM

Disney’s second feature adaptation of one of its classic tunes this year, Aladdin, hit tracking today with a combination of industry and tracking projections betting $70M-$90M over four-days Via DHD. Something like $50M-$60M for the three day of tracking sticks.

$80M four day.

Spongebob is about to have a major decrease.

I can see it possible, it seems like the only film of 2020 with a chance at it. Exactly. Besides the family competition from Croods 2, Vivo and Clifford as well as Disney’s own Dragon Empire and Fox/Locksmith’s Ron Gone Wrong would’ve hurt Cruella and doom it sub $100M. If they kicked off November with it, it’d be ahead of it’s competition. I would’ve done: November 6th - Cruella November 25th - Dragon Empire December 11th - Ron Gone Wrong December 18th - The Eternals December 23rd - West Side Story

Minions 2 is about to have big drop DOM ala IA5/PIB. @cannastop

Same, Widow worked best as a supporting character and it feels 6 years too late. Now The Eternals could easily be big. If I were Disney, I move it to December and ditch Cruella as it's already dead.

BW is more likely to do half of a billion than over it. The spectacle isn't there as CM or BP.

While it’s obvious Aladdin won’t be as big as Captain Marvel, it’s direct competition.

I mean, at this point I expect the GA to gobble it up.

It’s not doing strong enough opening wise and HTTYD3 will likely have better legs as it was fully animated.

You know what I think is breaking out: Toy Story 4. 2 months ago, I thought competition would be too powerful but with Pikachu looking at anywhere from $130M DOM to $180M DOM, Aladdin looking around mid $200M, and Pets 2 doing Grinch numbers. I can see a real breakout.

But it may not get to half off $1B. $400M-$425M seems about right.

Aladdin is one of Disney’s most loved movies and kids remember and know it unlike Dumbo or MPR. TWNW is buzzing decently. Haven’t checked presales in a while due to North Shore dying on me but they seem good. But I do think families are more likely to save for Pets 2 and TS4 and especially TLK not to mention Disney will likely throw it aside in favor of the latter two.

My guess for the multiplier is probably anywhere from 9-11x, so $51M-$62M OW. I can’t realistically see Aladdin under $200M DOM. 90s kids will prevent that but the proof for those who want $300M+ DOM isn’t evident. My guess is a Monsters University run DOM/WW

On one hand, I think that 4 PM previews do make films more frontloaded especially Pikachu and Shazam! but at the same time judging from theaters, past WB family films with 4 PM previews like Smallfoot and Lego 2 Don’t do shit because kids are still in school. Granted Pikachu is way more older skewing but it’s still a PG rated film.