YM!

What would be a good comparison for it? Sonic? TLM? Across? Trying to think of older-skewing PG family films.

Yeah. To be honest if something like Soul/Encanto were the 2023 releases or even TR/Raya or Luca/Raya, they would’ve done much better. Like if Elemental can do almost 500m, think Soul, Luca and Turning Red would’ve also been able to breeze by that. Encanto seemed like a Moana sized hit if it was a year later and not at the start of Covid with a 30 day window. Lightyear and Strange World died not because of homophobia or mad rural Americans (though I think SW B CinemaScore is suspect) but both were fundamentally flawed movies that didn’t click with the target audience. Out of all the problems Disney theatrical arms are, animations are the easiest to fix because you just need to deprogram the window of the Plus.

Do think Bad Guys and Elemental chalk up as successes for original animation. But the problem for the both were bad scheduling (atrocious marketing for Elemental too) but legs saved them. Budget moreso for Bad Guys.

At least the Friday is pretty solid.

Yeah am feeling under Elemental but could still get to 400m WW. Something like: 50m five day/150m domestic/425m worldwide

Comcast usurped Disney as the leader of animation and are good at pulling decent marketing campaigns. It’s no Shrek but it’s definitely within the top 3 of Dreamworks most beloved franchises.

Feel KFP4 seems like the obvious 50m+ opener. Long gap for a kids movie, and has nostalgia. Could even do around 80m OW if the marketing is effective but is it staying in March?

Thinking our range for this RT wise is 55-75%. Leaning a bit more towards the latter.

On the bright side, both Trolls and Wish look like whiffs judging from reviews/reactions outside of kids.

Yeah this is looking at Strange World/Elemental level reviews

My mistake lol. I meant that in exchange for doing mixed on MTC1, it overperforms in other chains.

I’m confused. Do you mean Trolls will overindex in other chains more than MTC1 compared to Wish?

Unsure if they can get Pascal in time though. With The Last of Us 2, and Gladiator being top priorities could he even be fit in. Marvel isn’t the biggest fish in that proverbial sea.

That’s what I’m thinking as well. I am okay with Pascal Reed not to torn up but not creaming. Pascal probably could do both “real” acting and Marvel stuff the most out of their recent gets. Wanted Driver because both CBM Twitter and Film Twitter having tantrums is hilarious to me.

Probably because dude doesn’t have the time for it. Krasinski likes to make movies and being in a big franchise limits time for that so unless Feige was giving him control, it wasn’t going to happen.

KFP4 if it stays in March

Friday and previews

Is the 1.5M including or excluding EA? Also do think if it has another good day like yesterday and keeps in tangent with Elemental, should be able to do a 10M OD.

This looks like a cheesy 2000s superhero movie. Love it

Tbh think they can keep most of their films for now and just tough it out until Secret Wars but I think any movie or TV show not in production can get canned. If Echo which seems to got people 180-ing and Deadpool being nostalgia bait works, and a big Comic-Con presence might help bring back fan good will but they need to drastically cut back the amount of projects and just try to get to SW asap. I think the schedule for 2025 should be F4 as the kicker, followed by SM5, then Cap 4 for end of the year as I do think it’s obvious that is being set up a psuedo-Avengers/Hulk sequel (think that has much more benefits than most of the non sequel or F4 stuff they got right now even with the messy production which they never should’ve started filming in a middle of a Writers strike). Whether we like it or not, seems they really want to do Blade and Thunderbolts. Think both should be after SW but if they got to, there’s way around it. So make Blade a separate universe flick and the lower budget can help breakeven, make a Marvel’s Elseworlds joint and just be Ali killing vampires. Put it under the Spotlight label and have a post credit scene with Blade being yanked by the TVA. Thunderbolts seems to be conceptually being reworked but tbh, do it after SW if they can. If they got to go full steam ahead, let it be 2026 but for the love of god, add villains that are cool or visually interesting (Hammer, Mordo, Mysterio, Vulture, maybe Namor, Abomination) and go from there.

Interestingly enough, my theater went ham on Trolls with it having Marvel level screens (3+).

At the very least the DeBose songs are good. I’m very curious to see how reception pans out come this Friday with reviews. Suspect story will be generic but everything else carries which is fitting giving the team of Buck, Lee and Fawn.

Not sure if Wish could make the rounds it need to by Thursday evening to catch up to Elemental or go too much over it. That’s a hefty jump and it added about 1500 tickets these past four days in that chain.