RealLyre

current favorite top 25

hmm Mank seems like it's much more divisive than initial reactions suggested. maybe Oldman could miss a nom.

Oldman and Hanks would need to flop for Yeun to get in in a non-english performance from an A24 movie.

Fincher not pandering to the general audience for more accessibility appeal is probably the most exciting part of these reactions.

Hudson is out. the Oscars delay look really silly right now, either the film is a dud or they want it to make money in theaters.

supporting actress is so weak this year that I can see Close getting nominated even with a 40s MC. although I wouldn't be sure of her winning as much as pundits were initially thinking.

yeah my thoughts as well, especially when the little boy is the lead and the parents are just co-leads so Yeun could've worked as supporting. the movie is also mostly in korean (like at least 80% of it ) so that doesn't help with the AMPAS. Antonio Banderas got nominated last year but his performance was undeniable and in Minari the boy and the grandma got the most bait-y material. although it was one of the best A24 movies I've seen (like top 3) so I wouldn't underestimate it for a bp nom and but the odds don't look too good for it in other categories now that they wasted a supporting nomination. imo they should put it on Apple TV+ and make it Apple's main push for the Oscars.

Nomadland has little to no chance of winning bp for obvious reasons but Mank could still do it ( like the Artist in 2011). I think it will be between Mank, News of the World and Chicago 7. (Judas has a shot too if it makes the deadline but it has no release date yet so) Nomadland and the Father being 2 of the best movies of the year getting nominated but winning nothing meaningful will be disappointing to see but it would mirror Little Women/Irishman and Marriage Story to an extent from last year.

this is something that could actually give Hopkins competition in this category, he was almost locked to win against lindo/oldman/hanks/Kaluuya imo but against Boseman he is in danger.

Hillbilly Elegy looks like it will be the most bait-y film from Netflix acting wise this year, I don't think it will get good reviews (it should be fine awards wise with 50-60 MC) but Glenn Close is def happening and older voters will probably eat it up so a filler BP nomination wouldn't surprise me. I hope the whole movie isn't just screaming, yelling and crying though

Soul sounds like a step down from Inside Out but I still think it can get into screenplay/picture

I might be wrong but with Dune and The French Dispatch going to next year (and no word on whether Judas will make it in time or not) I do not see a scenario in which BOTH da 5 bloods and Ma Rainey's Black Bottom don't make it in best picture. one of them will get nominated imo if we assume that the top 5 is Nomadland Mank Chicago 7 Miami News of the World That leaves 3-5 spots for: Soul The Father Ma Rainey's Black Bottom The United States vs Billie Holiday Da 5 Bloods Tenet (?) Minari I would say their chances are more likely than not. hillbilly elegy could be this year's The Two Popes and get the acting nods, although probably with much worse reviews (like a yellow MC score)

with soul going to Disney+, there will possibly be 6 best picture nominees from streamers. Mank, Trial of the Chicago 7, One Night in Miami, Ma Rainey's Black bottom, soul and da 5 bloods. a record to be sure

with Billie Eilish's No Time To Die out of the race, this category is looking pretty grim. My Home Town is too good for a Eurovision movie but I hope it gets nominated.