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hmm Mank seems like it's much more divisive than initial reactions suggested. maybe Oldman could miss a nom.
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Oldman and Hanks would need to flop for Yeun to get in in a non-english performance from an A24 movie.
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Fincher not pandering to the general audience for more accessibility appeal is probably the most exciting part of these reactions.
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Hudson is out. the Oscars delay look really silly right now, either the film is a dud or they want it to make money in theaters.
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supporting actress is so weak this year that I can see Close getting nominated even with a 40s MC. although I wouldn't be sure of her winning as much as pundits were initially thinking.
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yeah my thoughts as well, especially when the little boy is the lead and the parents are just co-leads so Yeun could've worked as supporting. the movie is also mostly in korean (like at least 80% of it ) so that doesn't help with the AMPAS. Antonio Banderas got nominated last year but his performance was undeniable and in Minari the boy and the grandma got the most bait-y material. although it was one of the best A24 movies I've seen (like top 3) so I wouldn't underestimate it for a bp nom and but the odds don't look too good for it in other categories now that they wasted a supporting nomination. imo they should put it on Apple TV+ and make it Apple's main push for the Oscars.
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Nomadland has little to no chance of winning bp for obvious reasons but Mank could still do it ( like the Artist in 2011). I think it will be between Mank, News of the World and Chicago 7. (Judas has a shot too if it makes the deadline but it has no release date yet so) Nomadland and the Father being 2 of the best movies of the year getting nominated but winning nothing meaningful will be disappointing to see but it would mirror Little Women/Irishman and Marriage Story to an extent from last year.
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this is something that could actually give Hopkins competition in this category, he was almost locked to win against lindo/oldman/hanks/Kaluuya imo but against Boseman he is in danger.
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Hillbilly Elegy looks like it will be the most bait-y film from Netflix acting wise this year, I don't think it will get good reviews (it should be fine awards wise with 50-60 MC) but Glenn Close is def happening and older voters will probably eat it up so a filler BP nomination wouldn't surprise me. I hope the whole movie isn't just screaming, yelling and crying though
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Soul sounds like a step down from Inside Out but I still think it can get into screenplay/picture
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I might be wrong but with Dune and The French Dispatch going to next year (and no word on whether Judas will make it in time or not) I do not see a scenario in which BOTH da 5 bloods and Ma Rainey's Black Bottom don't make it in best picture. one of them will get nominated imo if we assume that the top 5 is Nomadland Mank Chicago 7 Miami News of the World That leaves 3-5 spots for: Soul The Father Ma Rainey's Black Bottom The United States vs Billie Holiday Da 5 Bloods Tenet (?) Minari I would say their chances are more likely than not. hillbilly elegy could be this year's The Two Popes and get the acting nods, although probably with much worse reviews (like a yellow MC score)
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with soul going to Disney+, there will possibly be 6 best picture nominees from streamers. Mank, Trial of the Chicago 7, One Night in Miami, Ma Rainey's Black bottom, soul and da 5 bloods. a record to be sure
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with Billie Eilish's No Time To Die out of the race, this category is looking pretty grim. My Home Town is too good for a Eurovision movie but I hope it gets nominated.