RealLyre

I can see Lindo getting snubbed but I doubt Holland would get in either.

idk i was hoping it would be more universally liked. it seems like the direction is the blandest part of the movie so Sorkin's chances for director are very slim and at best he might only get a nom (Green Book missed a director nod too iirc). so its pathway to best picture would be through SAG Ensemble/Screenplay wins which might happen as everyone agrees that it's super Oscar friendly and like u said it will have industry support but I'm reluctant to put it as a frontrunner anywhere esp. when Mank will also probably be Oscar friendly and will get better reviews so Netflix will prioritize it. the industry also loves Fincher

Chicago 7 reviews are not as good as I hoped . should still get nominated across the board. but I doubt it'll be a frontrunner for anything.

not related to the Oscars but the BAFTAs are increasing the nominations for certain categories and bringing back longlists.

this new release date is good. I don't understand why people are angry over it. did they want it to be another Tenet/No Time to Die and flop?

it's more so the distributor's/producer's decision. they do that to try and replicate a real festival's capacity. although I think Nomadland initially started with only 2000 virtual tickets on TIFF but added more online tickets as the festival went on due to high demand so maybe NYFF would do the same.

Zendaya winning the Emmy when it wasn't even sure she'll get nominated is incredible . if anyone has HBO and can watch Euphoria, I think they should

but Soul is coming this year though. it premieres next month at London Film Festival. based on what we know so far and if Pete Docter delivers like he did with Inside Out. the win is locked for Soul imo.

also yeah the Father only had 3 hour window to screen online (while everything else was open for 24 hours) and had just 1 drive-in screening. Sony Pictures Classic sabotaging themselves I guess. I still think it will win lead actor but with more buzz it could have a shot at screenplay too

she's also a producer on Nomadland so she could win 2 Oscars this year

yeah if Nomadland is crowd-pleasing enough for TIFF audience award it will probably be crowd-pleasing enough for the voters, best picture win is back on the table

Wolfwalkers debuts with 94 on MC. could probably land a nomination for Apple TV+ if they campaign for it. it's from the same studio as Song of the Sea and the Breadwinner which both were nominated. https://www.metacritic.com/movie/wolfwalkers

wasn't Mulan unsuccessful on Disney+? doesn't make much sense to throw in two other high profile blockbusters to it if the first one didn't do well (if the estimates from 3rd party sites are to be believed).

I was skeptical about it and thought it would be close between him, lindo and Oldman but after watching The Father. Hopkin's performance is undeniable. it will be very hard for anyone else to beat him imo. also Hopkins hasn't won since The Silence of the Lambs in 1992 so he can have the comeback narrative for his 2nd Oscar (like Renee last year, although his performance is way better). The Father also might be the best film I've seen at TIFF overall and I would predict it to win the TIFF audience award if it wasn't only available for 3 hours to screen whereas everything else was open for the whole day so less people watched it.