I actually think it has a very small possibility for $200M+, but the last Dreamworks movie to accomplish that was Madagascar 3, so if CU opens over $60M, which is unlikely, it can happen.
CA3 also dealt with Angry Birds (and to a lesser extent Neighbors 2 and Nice Guys). AOU seems a better comparison, but I don't see Pirates under X-Men.
In terms of summer releases I know it's crazy but does anyone see a possibility where animated movies in the domestic box office is this:
DM3 ($275M-$300M) > CU ($165M-$200M) = C3 ($155M-$200M) > Emoji ($85M-$140M)
I think the fact that the GA needed to know about 6-7 films beforehand hurt Civil War the most, henceforth a rush factor OW, and then poor legs because the GA flocked OW.
45%-50%. Remember CW did have more competition on it's third weekend and the fact that you needed to know 6-8 films prior to understand it, may have turned off some of the GA.
I could see us having a consecutive $150M+ domestic grosser weekly until July 21st.
Pirates ($225M)
WW ($300M)
CU ($160M)
Mummy ($155M)
Cars 3 ($185M)
TLK ($190M)
DM3 ($325M)
SMH ($305M)
Apes ($220M)