YM!

Again as history has shown, if GV2 has good holds for second and third weekend, even with Pirates and Wonder Woman it'll be just fine.

Still though, GV2 not only has Memorial Day Weekend, but again, it'll benefit a lot from double screenings with Pirates. However WW might be a problem. Still though, even if WW does $100M+ OW, IM3 dealt with consecutive $50M+ openers until June, and did well with a 2.35x multiple with more competition in May than GV2, Thor (again not the best comp.) did a 2.7x multiple in May despite dealing with two $85M+ OWs back to back.

A thing that may work in GV2's favor is that it's the only "family" film of May. Wimpy Kid would be lucky to end with $25M total. Unlike CW and IM3 there's no major ($100M+) family competition. Even Ultron had a small competitor from families, which was Tomorrowland ($90M) which may have benefited it due to double drive in screenings.

Civil War fought off Angry Birds and XMEN (both in the $100M-$155M range). Ultron fought off PP2, Fury Road, and San Andress, all doing over $150M domestic IM3 dealt with Gatsby, Trek 2, Fast 6, Hangover, and Epic, all of which did $100M-$230M. Again second and third weekend holds determine it's total, remember you needed 5-6 films for Ultron, and 6-8 films for CW which could have been turnoff for the GA more so the latter than the former.

Civil War to Ultron:Civil War has moved up to a total positive score of 88% and a 75% definite recommend to friends. That’s a tad under Ultron‘s 90% positive and 79% recommend, which isn’t a bad place to be. Audience make-up of Civil War per ComScore is 66% guys to 34% females, with 51% over 25. Ultron was more female at 38% and younger at 55% under 25. Ethnicity breakdown for Civil War was 48% Caucasians, 19% Hispanic, 18% African American and 16% Asian/other according to ComScore. GV2 to G1 in comparison: PostTrak continues to report that 76% of all moviegoers are giving GOTG2 a definite thumbs up to their friends; that’s one point above GOTG‘s 75%. PostTrak updates their audience polls throughout the weekend and GO9TG2 is still strong among older men and women over 25 with 32% and 26%, respectively. Guys under 25 rep 25% of all moviegoers, while females of that age are at 18%. All this means is that Marvel fans are aging up, and that those who were under 25 when the first movie opened crossed over. Strong positive reactions among all four demos with M25+ (94%), M25- (93%), F25+ (91%) and F25- (88%). Disney shows that 72% adults came out for GOTG2, 19% families, and 9% teens. Fifty-four percent of all GOTG moviegoers were Caucasian, 19% Hispanic, 12% African American and 9% Asian. Imax hubs delivered $13M of GOTG2‘s weekend stateside with the large format exhibitor ranking in seven of the sequel’s top 10 locations. Thirty-nine percent of all PostTrak respondents said GOTG2 blew away their expectations compared to 32% on the original 2014 film. Not the most reliable source but it could be a decent indicator.

It for like Drive Ins Theaters.

I'd say best case scenario is a 2.55x which gives us $373.57M Worst case is about a 2.3x which gives us $336.95M

Second Weekend and Third Weekend is what determines where it'll end. Besides GV2 will have lots of double screenings with Pirates.

Think it will, US looking at $350M-$370M which may help. $750M is locked at least. As long as it's over $620M this weekend, GV2 would still be on course for $800M.

WS > TA > IM > GV2 > CW/GOTG

http://batman-news.com/2017/05/11/diane-lane-justice-league-the-avengers/ Diane Lane thinks JL won't be better than The Avengers. I wonder if she means is in critical reception or quality. Thinking the former more than the latter:

Around there seems right.

Going pessimistic with $7.8M

$27M?

So O/U $30M for GV2?

@aabattery?

GV2 had the MCU's best first Tuesday (23%) tied with Strange (23%+).

GV2 seems to be playing like a family movie.

We don't know yet, but thinking around $9.5M-$10M.

Even Avengers 1, decreased from Monday to Tuesday, but we will see in a few hours. For now, think a small increase/decrease.

Still, only the smaller MCU solo movies like Strange and Ant-Man, and some sequels like TWS, throughout 2014-17 had those type of increases.

Civil War, a recent opener increased only by 3.5% on its first Tuesday, SS went up 8.5% and that was in the Summer.

Now that'd give me an early heart attack.

If we follow the pattern of Marvel's recent May openers, it'll stay flat or have a small decrease on Tuesday.

Looking back, Cinco de Mayo appears not to affect anything, IM3 had a normal Sunday (5/5/13 which was Cinco de Mayo) to Monday fall, AOU decreases slightly on Tuesday, like most Marvel May openers, CW had great previews too ($25M).