Jonwo
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Posts posted by Jonwo
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4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:
The whole major emphasis on celebrity voice cast and Justin Timberlake hit soundtrack angle reek of desperation on their part. I think they're confused as to what to do after audiences basically rejected a quality film like HTTYD2, so they're just back to cheap marketing tactics in hopes they pay off.
It did work for Home although I'm not sure it'll work for Trolls.
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2 minutes ago, cannastop said:
If Trolls doesn't make $100m, I think Dreamworks' operations might be in some serious shit. Maybe they'll make Shrek 5 and shut everything down.
DWA won't shutdown so soon after Comcast just bought them but I expect the budgets will be slashed to under $100m apart from the ones already in production .
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3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:
Yeah Trolls could definitely be another Rise of the Guardians. They're pimping the hell out of it with the marketing, but Storks is showing that doesn't necessarily matter.
DWA needs this to be a hit since KFP3 underperformed. Storks underpeforming for WB/WAG isn't good after the success of The Lego Movie but they'll survive and the two Lego films next year will do much better business.
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2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:
On the plus side, Stork's bombage (and IA5's and Angry Bird's underperformance) might signal that the bar for animation has been raised for the GA. So many quality animated films this year, perhaps the generic juvenile stuff isn't cutting it for the GA anymore. And before anyone brings up SLOP, that at least has top notch production values and a certain entertainment factor.
It'll be interesting how Trolls does because if it's mediocre then I can't see it doing more than $30-35m.
I do think Storks being a talking animal film didn't help either. Not that there is anything wrong with them but they're the most overused animated concept and audiences need a break from them
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I imagine WB thought Sully would do $20-25m and Storks $35m and not the other way around.
The scheduling of Sully I thought was so it could play in IMAX, October wasn't feasible because Hanks would be too busy promoting Inferno and November and December were just too packed. It worked out for them in the end.
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2 minutes ago, DAJK said:
Maybe storks IS a good movie, but an OW is usually indicative of how good marketing/brand was. And Stork's trailers were awful, so maybe this should have been expected.
The reviews for Storks has been mixed at best. I imagine Lego Batman and Lego Ninjago will do better but it's dissapointing their first non Lego film didn't open well
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1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:
I'd imagine it needs to be making somewhere around $225m or so WW to breakeven. They had to have spent over 100m on it by the time you add the marketing campaign in.
That's doable although Trolls has a early OS release which will eat into its audience.
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2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:
Good for M7. Yikes @ Storks. I mean it looked like generic garbage to me, but I thought the marketing was effective for its audience. Apparently not. Maybe there have finally been too many animated hits for the GA this year.
WB marketed it really well but clearly it hasn't clicked with audiences. The budget is under $100m so with OS it'll make a profit or break even at least but I imagine WB were hoping for a lot more. It does put original films in jeopardy though as they're not releasing an original film Smallfoot until 2018, The 2017 WAG films are Lego spin-offs and the other 2018 film is Scooby Doo.
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Just now, Treecraft said:
Fuck me that's bad for Storks. I haven't seen any marketing for it (though I'm not 100% sure when it releases here)
October 14th with previews the week before but I imagine Trolls which is released a week after will do better. It's also releasing in the same week as Inferno in the UK which will likely do very well.
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Storks' Friday is lower than Cloudy 1 which did $8.1m opening day for a $25m weekend, WB better be hoping it does at least $10m on Saturday.
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Sony are lucky that Hotel Transylvania, Smurfs and to an extent Cloudy were successful as I imagine SPA would have closed by now.
WAG seems to taking the WDAS/Pixar approach with their Think Tank but they don't have an actual studio using companies like Animal Logic, Imageworks etc for the animation itself, Storks costs $70m which is slightly lower than Illumination but half of Pixar. Interesting that they're using live action directors like Nicholas Stoller and Dax Shepherd to help co-direct their films,
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3 minutes ago, Maxmoser3 said:
Not bad for an original family movie, I hope it makes north of $30 million and makes $100 million domestic.
Anything above the $30-35m mark is a win for WAG, HT is the exception to that and that had the advantage of Adam Sandler and monsters, Storks has no big names apart from maybe Samberg and Kelsey Grammer.
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1 minute ago, James said:
I'm wondering it Storks could win the weekend. I'd love to see the meltdowns.
It wouldn't be the first time an animated film beat a big live action film e.g BH6 and Interstellar, Madagascar 3 and Prometheus,
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Flight was a much more difficult sell even with Denzel at the helm and I think a lot of people weren't sure if Zemeckis could pull off his first live action film in over a decade.
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4 minutes ago, grim22 said:
This has to be my favorite bit of news this weekend. So many scriptwriters in Hollywood struggle to get even one of their ideas on the screen, and a 4-year old gets a 125M budgeted movie greenlit
That explains a lot about the movie for sure.
I imagine they saw how successfull Transformers was and thought what they could with other automobiles and came up with Monster Trucks.
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3 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:
It's a co finance with MGM who needs it after Ben Hur (though they did well on their joint productions with New Line this year)
Ben Hur likely wiped out any money MGM made with the New Line films. Mag 7 will make a decent amount of money but not enough to cover Ben Hur's losses
Inferno will likely be a big hit for Sony moreso OS than domestic. I think it'll do over $250m OS and crack $100m domestic.
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10 minutes ago, grim22 said:
No good comps unfortunately. None of the September animated movies had previews. Lego had 400k but that was only 10pm onwards. Spongebob had 560k in February, but by and large not too many preview comps for non-summer animated openings.
Its interesting that WB opted for previews considering it's not holidays. It's difficult to see what the final OW will be just from previews but using Spongebob's multiplier would mean $46m OW which is too high, low to mid $30m would be more likely and on par with September animation
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Deadline is predicting high 20s- low 30s for Storks which would put in range with other September animation apart from HT and HT2.
$30-35m would be a win for WB and WAG for Storks, they are ramping up the slate with the two Lego films next year then Smallfoot and Scooby Doo in 2018. I'll be curious how Ninjago does as doesn't have the name recognition that Batman does, the short in front of Storks will help audiences will familiar with the characters
I'll be curious to see what WAG comes up with, they're drawing upon existing IP like Lego but also the various libraries that WB owns as well as original ideas. I imagine they'll be a Plastic Man or Metal Men movie from WAG since those characters lend themselves to animation and also we've seen how successful Big Hero 6 has been from WDAS
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18 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:
Currently? Hanks. He has one with the Dan Brown thing but that came much later
I'd love to see a Hanks-Denzel movie but I imagine that it too expensive as both are $20m a film each same with Leo
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Given Denzel a draw for audiences, I wonder if studios have approached him for big tentpoles and he's turned them down.
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If it does $43-45m then that's the second highest September opening and the the highestt live action film debut for the month.
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13 minutes ago, Arlborn said:
A very valid point, but still, it seems to me like a movie that can overpeform OS. Call it a gut feeling I guess. We'll see.
This movie was likely made for more for OS rather than domestic, I do think $30-35m OW is doable, Hanks is on a roll after Sully although there is a fair bit of competition from The Accountant and Jack Reacher
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7 minutes ago, AHepBurn said:
Upcoming movies for WB are:
Storks Warner Bros. 9/23/16 The Accountant Warner Bros. 10/14/16 Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them Warner Bros. 11/18/16 Collateral Beauty Warner Bros. (New Line) 12/16/16 Storks I can see doing fine since there's a dearth of new family entertainment, Wild Life crashed and it's a good alternative to Magnificent Seven. The Accountant I can see doing well since Affleck seems to have increased his profile even more playing Batman and we're into awards season. Fantastic Beasts should do well and close out their year of tentpoles with (what I continue to believe will be the only) $200-$299mil domestic earner. And Collateral Beauty opens alongside Rogue One, but is one of WB's low budget films that can pull in an older audience for the holidays.
So all-in-all, unless Fantastic Beasts unexpectedly tanks, WB should close out the year in style. I haven't fully looked at the possibilities for Rogue One, but thus far it's looking like WB will have the highest return-on-investment for every dollar they've spent this year.
Warner Bros has had a good balance of tentpoles and midbudget titles, New Line Cinema has been on a roll with their films being profitable.
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14 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:
WB had a good Summer and is now having a pretty sweet September.
October should be solid with The Accountant and Fantastic Beasts will do great in November.
Weekend Estimates (Page 28): Magnificent 7 35M | Storks 21.8M | Sully 13.8M | Bridget Jones 4.5M
in Numbers and Data
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I agree, hopefully WAG will look at what happened with Storks and try again with Smallfoot but given WAG has Lego and the various characters from the animation libraries and DC for ideas, it'll make it harder for original ideas to get greenlit if films like Storks and Smallfoot don't do as well as the ones based on IP