Jonwo
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Posts posted by Jonwo
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Alvin was just previews, it doesn't open until next week but it doesn't bode well but it'll have holiday legs. AC should definetly benefit from Christmas week, like ACC it just done great business even against the likes of HF2 and Hugo.
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I hope this isn't an omen for Sherlock Holmes A Game of Shadows although I think that'll open very well and with nothing opening the week after apart from the IMAX screenings of Mission Impossible, it should have decent legs. I think IIRC Sherlock did £3.08m two days but did £3.5m the weekend after so I think it'll do £4-5m OW next week and Alvin £2-3m including previews.
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Gullivers did £7m 7 days, Tintin did £6.7m 7 days. Think Mission Impossible is going to do very well although maybe my intial prediction of £13m 11 days is a tad too high, maybe £8-9m 11 days?
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£8m 7 days can't see it TBH maybe £5-6m. Mission Impossible's numbers are going to inflated due to the IMAX screenings and opening on Boxing Day. Think £13m for the combined Opening.
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Think it'll do well but I can't see it doing huge numbers but it'll have legs, depends on how it fares against the likes of The Iron Lady and War Horse in January. The other adult appealing films are J Edgar which I saw in America and enjoyed but think it would struggle here, The Artist and The Descendants.Think Puss will be number 1 although the Alvin previews should do well but I wonder if being against so many family films is affecting it? AC just continues to do well which is amazing considering it's doing poorly in the US. How did NYE do, I hope it flopped as it looked terrible!
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The LOTR films got Wednesday releases and it's surprising The Hobbit just got a Friday release, I imagine in many countries it'll get a Wednesday/Thursday release. MIB3 and The Pirates! In an Adventure in Scientists is released two days before the US release. The Avengers and Ice Age 4 are released a week before their US release.
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The Hobbit will be huge, it wouldn't surprise me if they move it forward to Wednesday 12th December to ensure a big five day weekend.
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Both KFP2 and Cars 2 underperformed, The Smurfs was a surprise hit but I think it benefitted from the lack of similar films throughout its run. Bridesmaids just took off which was a surprise considering US comedy don't tend to that well over here.Will be interesting what the box office hits of 2012 will be. The Dark Knight Rises, The Avengers, The Amazing Spider-Man and The Hobbit are the surefire hits but there should be a few surprises.
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It's been an interesting year for UK Box office, the surprise hit IMO was The Inbetweeners which I expected to do well but not as big as it became. Don't think anyone could have predicted that the top three grossing films of 2011 would be a. British and b. outgross blockbusters like Pirates of the Carribbean and Transformers. Other successful British films this year include Johnny English Reborn, Tinker, Tailor Soldier Spy, Paul and Arthur Christmas.
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Hugo got squeezed out by HF2 and AC, shame really, think it would done better had they released it a week earlier. AC should do £14-15m total, as I mentioned its had incredible legs.
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Hugo did poorly but I think it'll have legs, Tintin should finish at £16-17m which is a very healthy total and on par with the animated summer blockbusters like KFP2 and The Smurfs.
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Arthur Christmas' legs have been excellent and it managed to face off HF2 and Hugo, Puss in Boots should be number 1, there should be interest in NYE although it won't do as well as Valentine's Day did.Alvin 3 has weekend previews next week which may hurt PIB and AC so it's OW will be higher although Sherlock Holmes will easily be Number 1.
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How's Hugo doing? Would have thought both it and HF2 would have hurt AC. Think Twilight will be number 1 again.
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The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo has been rated 18, that may hurt its box office potential as I assumed it would be 15. Given the popularity of the books and to a less extent the Swedish films, I think it should be successful over Christmas and January.
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Will be interesting if Arthur Christmas got a boost from the Public sector's strike today as I went to see it this afternoon and it was packed!
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I imagine they want to try and make as much money as possible before HF2, Puss in Boots, Hugo and Alvin. I've noticed that unlike previous years the two blockbusters Sherlock Holmes and Mission Impossible are not in 3D.
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I don't think it was promoted at all and the subject matter isn't likely to appeal to British audiences. Tintin has had solid legs although it helps that its the only other family film apart from AC.
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Happy Feet 2 has received a lot of promotion but I don't it'll do that well especially as PIB comes out the week after then Alvin 3. Arthur Christmas has done incredible but I think it's making most of its money on weekends which is understandable.
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They're really getting the promotion early for The Muppets, i think they'll be doing the rounds from January onwards, hopefully Jason Segel comes over to promote it but he might be busy with HIMYM. £4-5m OW is likely but I think they should move the release date up to 8th February to get a head start on Star Wars 3D and Journey 2.
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The promotion already started with the Mahna Mahna numbers on Children in Need and I imagine Disney are going to promote it very heavily through December and January and I imagine the Muppets, Jason Segel and Walter will be promoting it across the chatshows and radio shows in early February.
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It's made by Aardman plus the fact there is no similar kids competition, next week it faces Hugo and Happy Feet Two so it'll be interesting if it can hold up against those two, HF2 will not do as well as the first film simply due to competition from Hugo, Puss in Boots and Alvin 3. It seems there is more family film competition this year compared to previous year, last year was only Narnia and Gulliver's Travels.
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Given that The Muppets is going to be rolled out to cinemas worldwide over the next few months, I'd thought I'd start an OS thread and what predictions what The Muppets will do OS, I'm thinking at least $100-150m, The Muppets are very well known property and I think it'll be hugely popular in countries like the UK and Australia especially the UK as that is where The Muppets got their debuts and it's released just before the half term holidays.
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Saw this yesterday and I have to say it's definetly the best Muppet film since The Muppet Movie, it manages to combine what makes the Muppets with the humour, songs, celebrity cameos etc with a more serious story, Chris Cooper was great as Tex Richman although his motivations aren't really made that clear such as to why he hates The Muppets and also none of the Muppets especially Kermit stand up to him. Walter's a great additition but I felt Gary and Mary got pushed to the side once the Muppets came in but all in all it's a wonderful film.
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Hugo really underperformed, think GK Films got overambitious and should have kept it in December. Arthur Christmas did as well with competition from new and existing family films, hope it won't affect the Aardman/Sony partnership but it puts pressure on The Pirates! to perform well although I'm confident it will.
UK Box Office Thread
in International Box Office
Posted
Arthur Christmas should hit £14-15m by next week and I predict it'll hit £16m total. It bodes well for Aardman's next film The Pirates! which is released in March and has no similar competition aside from Wrath of the Titans and it's claymation rather than CGI.I do think AC would have done better in the US had Sony kept the original date of November 11th, I think releasing against Hugo, The Muppets and HF2 hurt it whereas in the UK it had time to grow and has just done remarkable business against firstly Twilght then HF2 and Hugo.