Valonqar

January 23

Winners predictions:

Game over: Randolph, Zone (Foreign)

Almost there: Oppenheimer, Nolan, Stone, RDJ

2-way race: Murphy and Giamatti, Script categories (Anatomy and Holdovers, American Fiction and Barbie), Spider and Heron

January 23

15 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

I still think The Holdovers is the #2 to Oppenheimer. Missing Best Director looks bad initially but whatever it's not a showy movie like that. It's the one that has that "feel good" vibe the Oscars like sometimes. It got all the same nominations Green Book got put it that way.

Director miss is not bad cause preferential ballot favors Script and Acting combo. Holdovers is locked to win Acting (at least Randolph). It's facing competition from Anatomy in Original Script but it's between these 2 movies.

14 minutes ago, cannastop said:

I don't believe for a minute The Holdovers will win Best Picture.

15 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

I don't either Oppenheimer is like one million miles ahead of every other movie but I think it's #2.

Yeah, pundits are creating fake race here but Oppenheimer has SAG Ensemble nom and Holdovers doesn't which is a minor setback but still a setback given how actors driven votes tend to be.

20 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Poor Things as the second most nominated movie does lead me to believe Oscar #2 for The Stone Age is indeed happening after Gladstone's snub at BAFTA.

It has been Stone's to lose since Venice raves. Gladstone won GG only because of Drama/Comedy split.

January 23

34 minutes ago, WorkingonaName said:

Maestro is top 2 in the BP lineup.

Nope. It's Poor Things. That one will win Actress for sure and has a good shot at winning Production Design, Costume and Makeup and who knows what will win Adapted? Maestro isn't a lock for even Makeup and it's not going to win anything else.

January 23

11 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

Maestro was a boring pile of garbage.

yep and might end with zero wins or only makeup.

January 23

1 minute ago, YM! said:

Decent roundup this year but there’s a few notes I got:

Lowkey if Ferrera gets the win for the speech and Bassett couldn't that kinda bullshit (think Hsu was the clear choice last

she's not winning lol. She missed all precursors but CC which had 6 slots. She's #5. Randolph is locked to steamroll this even if BAFTA hypotetically picks a Brit. Randolph's winning SAG. It's over.

January 23

1 minute ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

I heard shirley awful, but I wouldnt be surprised if it ends up being nominated in the acting categories next year

Awful Netflix biopic? 100% IN! I'm not joking. Netflix is really good with this shit cause they know what Acting branch falls for. And they are the biggest voting body.

Some fun facts: French submission Taste of Things missed in Foreign while the movie they didn't submit cause of some feud between Macron and Triet got Picture, Director, Actress, Original Script and Editing noms. :hahaha:

January 23

never udnerestimate Netflix ability to push through actors in shitty biopic baits. Rustin, Nyad, Maestro. Bravo, Netflix. :apocalypse:

January 23

7 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

If cruise doesn’t get in, no reason Robbie should. It is just isn’t method enough for their role to play a macho-fighter and stereotypical doll.

That is not the point. The point is that she was snubbed together with the director while Ferrera who was missing precursors cause her performance was nothing to write home about except that cringe speech got in. It would be as if Jon Hamm got in for TGM without Cruise. It's nonsense.

January 23

WTF was this? How the heck did Gerwig and Robbie miss for being the reason for the movie's succes alongside Gosling but the cringest part of the movie, Ferrera, somehow made the cut? I see Internet is raging over this BS and rightly so.

January 22

10 hours ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

since ava duverany is somewhat relevant again, I feel like asking

is 100 million domestic really such a terrible gross for a movie like that?

sure it for some reason had a 130 million budget, but even with great reviews I cant imagine it getting to 200 million dom, maybe 150 million and since the book has no real international presence it could have maybe done 100 million max

Yes because it was based on the popular book with big built-in fandom in US and it had big names (Reece, Oprah, Pine). It was unreasonably budgeted (lack of) quality aside. Even if it was good it depended on one market only and it's very hard to blow up so much to offset disinterest elsewhere.

January 21

18 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:

In France it's depending of the mood and the WOM but in general it's not good , No Hard Feelings made just 100k admissions ( it's a flop) but the movie was 2-3 days at the top on ITunes ( more success in streaming like other countries) , The Lost City made just 650K and Ticket to Paradise just under 400K so not the best country to make money

The advantage of Anyone But You is Sony made promotion on Tiktok . Also contrary to other movies that I quoted , he begin one month after the US and could profit of the WOM and box office of other countries + lack of competition . ( This wednesday , we have with ABY , Color People and May December ( yes , one of the few countries that the movie begin in theaters instead of Netflix))

oh wow that's an excellent input into French boxoffice! Big thanks! :bravo:

January 21

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

It's the same grassroots campaign that paid off for Andrea Riseborough last year. If Ellis manages a nomination Tuesday, why would anyone need studio campaigning going forward when Rose's Mom can get the job done herself?

If Ellis gets in it will be interesting to see at whose expense.

1 hour ago, Krissykins said:

So Aquaman 2 passed Black Adam worldwide this weekend.

$425-430m final maybe.

Really saved its face with late legs. If WB didn't wait so long could have made more.

1 hour ago, Grand Cine said:

The movie has a good chance, if the holds continue to be good, to be the biggest rom com Movie of the Post-Covid era ( surpass Ticket to Paradise) and the biggest since Crazy Rich Asian in 2018, i think .

The movie has also France/Italy/Brazil to open this incoming week

Not idea about France but Brazil and Italy should be romance-friendly markets at least Brazil considering all the dating show spin-offs that the country is getting (Too Hot to Handle Brazil, Love Is Blind Brazil, etc).

January 21

ABY is the holiday season and beyond story for sure.

January 21

I think that ABY proving leggy in mainstream and Saltburn exploding on streaming are stealing the sexy buzz from Poor Things. It also helps those other movies that are contemporary which is appealing to younger audience and have young up and coming cast.

January 21

5 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Good for MGM, they may have two 50m mid-sized hit from some genre that no longer deemed theatrical worthy.

Proof that tapping into the underserved audience is a win.

January 21

Watched it again. Addictive stuff!

January 21

3 minutes ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

For prior Regal/AMC secret movies I always wonder how they include the grosses. For a wide release they probably just roll it into Thursday previews, but I suppose distributors can do whatever they want.

Origin got a very mixed response from being sprung onto randos at $5 screenings but maybe plays better to awards movie fans?

If it gets awards nominations. Rn it's hoping to crash the party thanks to Frances Fisher giving the movie and especially Ellis To Leslie grassroot campaign. We'll see what happens on Tuesday.

January 21

Wonka should pass 200M dom and A2 120M dom eventually since holdovers should hold well next weekend too.

January 21

3 hours ago, Jerri Blank-Diggler said:

Deadline Weekend Box Office (as of Sat) -- 1 Mean Girls $11 M (-62%); 2 Beekeeper $8.3 M (-50%); 3 Wonka $6.75 (-20%); 4 Anyone But You $5.4 M (-24%); 5 Migration $5.3 M (-15%); 6 Aquaman $3.75 M (-29%); 7 ISS $3.3 M

Per Deadline:

ISS -- *PostTrack a low 49% positive and 27% definite recommend* to go with C- Cinemascore

Total Weekend Box Office $68M; "-8% from same frame" in 2022

https://deadline.com/2024/01/box-office-mean-girls-weak-winter-weekend-1235799017/

I hope Aquaman 2 hold holds. It didn't crash contrary to pre-release expectations but saved a bit of face both dom and OS. Momoa walkups.

January 20

17 minutes ago, JonathanMB said:

Yeah it's odd that Searchlight went ahead with the 1,400+ theater expansion now for Poor Things instead of right after the nominations like they did for Shape of Water or The Favourite, but I guess they figured that there was almost nothing opening this weekend or next weekend so the odds of them losing those theaters between the two weeks was low (my local AMCs still don't even have showtimes for Miller's Girl).

yeah and then next weekend they can report increase from this weekend.

January 20

1 hour ago, Becker said:

A major part of it was not only was the story meandering at best and painfully low brow at worst. But, it also had the added effect of not being cinematic. In many respects, it had the feel of a Star Trek episode. Made for Television is how I would describe it.

Bingo. It feels like a money laundering scheme that that made for TV thing had 250M budget after a tax break! So originally more than that and even covid cannot explain how the heck it looked like a Canadian sci fi (the lowest of sci fi) on such a big budget. TV characters, TV quality of visuals, TV pilot plot.

January 19

18 minutes ago, Becker said:

Has anyone here had the chance to actually sit down and watched the movie from beginning to end. Unless I'm mistaken, It would appear as though that most of the people ranting about the movie have not. As someone who has, I can confirm the movie itself, regardless of genre and actor/studio name prestige, is quite mediocre to point where I would recommend against viewing it unless you are an Alpha-Omega-Beta-Gamma-Delta SuperHero Fan.

I didn't watch cause I had zero interest in this team but all you said was obvious from trailers. Mediocrity, annoyance, no hook, promo tone and focus shifting with each new teaser/trailer/clip/spot. First they wanted to present all 3 as equals than when that didn't work they tried last ditch attempt to refocus on Carol, etc. Disposable movie. Everything about it screamed disposable especially cast members from streaming shows. That just spelled cheap, and wait for, well, streaming.

January 19

1 hour ago, efialtes76 said:

What a fucking moron this man is!🤣

where did he come from and what site is he working for? It really sucks that we had to get numbers from him.

January 19

58 minutes ago, dudalb said:

I think there is still some denial going on here. I think the GA has simply has their fill of Superheros for the time being, and are going to be a lot more selective about the ones they see. And they won't spned as much on the movies as they have been doing.

This 1000%. People showed up for Tom, Tobey and Andrew. That was an event. They sure as hell didn't show up for Ms Streaming Show 1 and Ms Streaming Show 2. That was not an event. Not a rocket sceince.

January 19

50 minutes ago, Speedorito said:

Empire said ATSV would make 500M Dom and that Songbirds and Snakes would bomb. He was banned for a reason.

Luiz is a joke as well.

Not saying it won’t happen but those two don’t exactly have crystal balls.

To be fair, it's harder to predict final total than OW since OW can be figured out from presales while final depends on legs and legs can't be accurately forcast numbers/holds/reception unseen, only wishcast.

Luiz is a joke, though.

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