cdsacken
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Posts posted by cdsacken
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49 minutes ago, baumer said:
Without having read the article, I find it funny that Deadline sites 750 as the break even. Marvel isn't making movies just for profit and they never really have since IM. They do it for the money no doubt but they also do it to set up future earnings. CM is really just a trailer for the next phase of the Marvel universe. Even if it needed a billion to break even, it wouldn't really matter because their future earnings is all part of the plan. And I'm not sure how DL came up with 750, that seems kind of absurd. So they are basically saying Marvel spent 375 million on the film? I doubt it that's high and even if it is, this notion that you need to earn double your total expenditures is nonsense.
As for what it will potentially make this weekend, I think the drop will be 55-60%, just like most Marvel second weekends. This is not going to drop less than 50% did like BP. Also, it's March Break here in Canada this week so the Friday jumps will be slightly lower than normal.
Spring break in the States start on Friday right?
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Thursday projection like 8.3 million?
Gotg 2 dropped 5% after 7.5 million first Wednesday then had a 65 million 2nd weekend. If it follows the same drop it would do 68.3 give or take. Granted that was in early May and 2017.
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1 hour ago, The Futurist said:
OS still won't give a frack about this.
Feels so American.
But who knows, maybe it can billie me wrong.
Agreed. I can't wait to see it but absolutely no one is talking about in England. I really hope it does well
(Comic wars are bullcrap I loved Aquaman and really liked Captain Marvel). Curious to see how it does globally. What America likes the most doesn't always translate well globally. Realist in me says it does way below Wonder Woman but hope I'm wrong.
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18 minutes ago, UserHN said:
But BP has really low Maoyan rating, 8.0 i think. CM has a China drop that is unfit for an 8.8 Maoyan.
I mean come on. That's just dumb. I liked Captain Marvel but Aquaman was better, Black Panther was so much better. For me easily #1 of all marvel films. Rewatchability of that film is so high. Yet Venom is near dead last of all comicbook adaptions I have seen (50+) and it did awesome. What makes sense in America doesn't necessarily make sense in China.
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On 9/20/2018 at 6:03 PM, DMan7 said:
What's the ETA on all movies from studios going to their respective streaming services and there will no longer be any movies or theaters anymore?
If I had to guess absolutely never. Subscription model will expand considerably. Crazy people spend $50 to finance an iPhone XS, $25 for unlimited movies is so cheap in comparison.
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On 9/20/2018 at 3:16 PM, Barnack said:
Theater chain program has a big advantage over a movie pass, they pay the studio not the studio + theater, so the giant heavy user just cost them half of what MP would pay and they have the extra concession sales if they occurs.
It's worked in England for years (I live in Cambridge and had a pass back in 2013). Movie pass was the dumbest model ever. I had it at $30 a month because it was awesome and I knew it would die or end up worthless. AMC controls so much and their margins are crazy high on food. People with passes spend a lot more than casual users and have bring full paying friends. AMC also knows the can slowly raise prices and keep almost everyone. Even with 700k users they are making money as we speak.
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59 minutes ago, AndyK said:
I put 14.5 prediction in the Monday thread, very predictable coming off the Monday numbers.
Unless one thought it was going to tank big time. You nailed that prediction. Thoughts on 2nd weekend numbers. Maybe bit less than 65 million say 64/63?
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I'd love to see 900 million WW beating Wonder woman but that seems ridiculous. Then again China somehow like a horrible movie in Venom, maybe they will like this one.
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22 minutes ago, RealLyre said:
Alita over Captain Marvel?
In China seems more likely than Shazam WW over CM. I wonder what Shazam will do in China? I literally have no idea or expectation at all. Hopefully good.
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26 minutes ago, UserHN said:
What's your gut feel for Shazam worldwide? Greater than CM?
I would be absolutely shocked if it even sniffed 900 million. I'd guess 750 million worldwide and that's probably super generous but I'm optimistic. Looks awesome.
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21 minutes ago, john2000 said:
you are savage i dont like it ,still can hit 130-140 mill ?(this market continues to dissapoint me not only with captain marvel though i mean they loved venom i just ..... and i say that as someone who liked it )
It's not like they have any better taste. Venom was pure trash. Kinda funny to watch one but trash indeed. Every market has it's quirks, China as well. Can't wait to see Wandering Earth though.
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I imagine it will do very good but I don't love horror films, even critically acclaimed ones. My wife loathes them and not a chance I would ever let my kid see it. Potential is limited for several reasons but I bet it's great for that genre. Get out was so creepy for me but good nonetheless. I imagine US would be the same.
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5 hours ago, Warhorse said:
But, he was risking his life, willing to lay down over the wire so the other men can be saved. That is what makes a hero. Not someone who is completely invincible and risks nothing.
Superman often risks nothing until he faces something so great he dies in the process. She has incredible power and with that comes incredible responsibility which I believe will be put to good use in End Game.
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8 hours ago, Noctis said:
Poorly acted by who?
Exactly my question. People say Larson was wooden but Hemsworth got hammered by many for Thor 1 which all loved him in Thor 3. I'm all for different directors but the movie was good. Too often it seems internal biases skew peoples opinions. I went into Aquaman with so many saying it was mediocre but fun, yet I loved it. I went into this film with super negative and super positive films and fell into the middle camp, I enjoyed it but thought it could have been better.
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12 hours ago, justvision said:
Likely to get a lot wtf or worse reactions, but I got to say this. I respect China market. CM is such mediocre movie compared to recent MCU solo such as Thor Ragnorok and Spider-Man Homecoming that it should not earn more than them. The heavy promotion and the tie-in to Endgame boosted its OD, but after that the movie has to face the audience on its own merit.
To those haters, and to those who demand China to show favor to MCU first female lead movie, China audience is like "I do what I would do, I like what I like", and "I got nothing to prove to you". 🙂😜
Sure except horrendous films like Venom did great there. Venom is easily one of the worst comic book type films I have ever seen and I love Tom Hardy. Saw it once and not a chance I would ever see it again. I have no more respect for it anymore than European or American markets. People have different tastes, for me Ant Man and the Wasp was incredibly boring and mediocre. I don't put Captain Marvel anywhere near the Hulk and that but it's nowhere near the top either. IMO of course.
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Just now, baumer said:
That's why I said IN MY OPINION several times.
Hulk is not great. Ant Man is terrific.
Captain Marvel was uneven, poorly directed, abysmally written in some spots, poorly acted in areas and it wastes a terrific deaged Jackson.
Sorry, just not my tempo. Thought it was a really poor effort.
Interesting. I liked Ant Man. Sequel I put in the range of the Hulk. I enjoyed Suicide Squad more....so yeah. I tried to rewatch but couldn't finish it.
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9 minutes ago, baumer said:
Not quite my tempo. Had some good parts but pretty much felt the first 75% of it was one giant hot mess. Liked the last 20 minutes. Needed for Coulston, needed better use of sLJ. Brie was definitely miscast imo as she just didn't have enough charisma to carry the role, in my opinion. Might be the worst Marvel film to date.....except for Thor 2.
Really? Hulk is way worse. Ant Man and the Wasp I felt was boring and generic with basically little purpose. Only marvel film I didn't see in theaters and thank god I didn't.
I also felt Brie was fantastic. Better directors and better script would have really pushed this movie into another level.
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10 minutes ago, tawasal said:
I was just clarifying it for you, not meant to be mean or anything.
Figured as much, no worries at all. That weekend figure was incredible, no one can even pretend otherwise. Can't wait for End Game.
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Of course I was adding those simply because they were marvel films which recently came out. I hope it does well the next 2 weeks. I'd love to see 400+/1.15B+.
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19 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:
7.4 isn’t crazy frontloaded or anything considering the Endgame factor. I think the appetite was there for 165+ if it was widely received as being in the top third of MCU movies compared to the “good, but 40th-50th percentile” reactions I’ve seen a lot of.
In the end this is a very strong debut for a new character, and it really went bonkers overseas. Can’t complain too much about being some % short of sky high hopes.
Yep. Good film could have been way better but not mediocre either.
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10 minutes ago, tawasal said:
How is a -26.5% drop yikes? It's freaking March and not the summer or holidays.
Probably normal just such a drastic change from Saturday. Black panther barely even dropped. Infinity war dropped 15.7%, Antman and the Wasp dropped 21.3% with a much weaker opening.
Thor 3: 27.4%
Spiderman HC: 21.2% again a lot smaller open
Gotg3: 23.7% with a smaller opening
If it was 40.0 it wouldn't look that big despite that really being a relatively insignificant difference.
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I'd rather have had a much stronger villain for sure. That said, it's her origin story. The real badass villain is in end game. Even with everything they have with her and the rest of the group, many will die in the next film.
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Yikes that Sunday.
Horrible slate of movies for the 15th and 22. Has basically no competition until the 29th.
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12 minutes ago, MyMovieCanBeatUpYourMovie said:
I do think we need to check our own biases when folks react to Thor in Infinity War taking on the power of a star and wrecking drop ships single-handedly as "Fuck yeah, finally Thor is at the power level he should have always been at!" yet we see Captain Marvel doing similar, and it's, "Oh, she's *too* powerful."
Agreed many people who love Superman hate Captain Marvel which makes zero sense to me. I like both, as well as Batman and Aquaman/Spiderman. I could care less if a Superhero is alien, a different race, or what gender. Also stoked to see Shazam, Zach Levi will crush it.
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Shazam! | April 5, 2019 | 21st Most Profitable Film of 2019
in Box Office Discussion
Posted · Edited by cdsacken
I'm thrilled to see it. Definitely going opening weekend in the UK. I even jumped in on the prediction above 275 million (276 😉) but that's my optimistic prediction of 276/800+. I could easily see something more like 225/600+ too which is not bad at all for the small budget. Mediocre is Alita box office wise and there has been much worse like John Carter or who could forget the dumpster fire of Stealth?
One thing I will help a lot is Zach Levi. I want a Chuck movie!