TwoMisfits
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Posts posted by TwoMisfits
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Reading the tea leaves, the post premiere social media seems like this might be a single, and definitely not a home run. Too long in the 1st act, doesn't hit the ending/3rd act, etc...
No idea how RT critics flow these days, but I'd expect a GA-light/Fan-heavy turnout b/c reviews will be okay, but not enough to move the needle (say right around fresh)...but this has always been uber-fan-heavy since the 1st, so no change there...
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1 hour ago, kayumanggi said:
Well, I can't see Apes going under $25M DOM next weekend, so all May can do is get better now...
Garfield, don't let me down:)...
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1 hour ago, Eric the Fall Guy said:
lmao wut
I mean, I picked this and Inside Out 2 to battle it out to win the year DOM...maybe I have some Brazilian roots I don't know about...
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59 minutes ago, AniNate said:
Well, Cinemark's still doing ok at least
Cinemark Q1 Earnings on Lower Revenue (hollywoodreporter.com)
Well, they kinda cheated to do okay...true net profit would have been negative if it was regularly done ($2.9M loss vs last year's quarter loss of $3.1M)...
"The company reported a net profit of $24.8 million, compared to a loss of $3.1 million in the prior year, though, helped by a gain of $27.7 million from an income tax benefit due mainly to the release of valuation allowances in certain foreign markets. The diluted earnings per share was 19 cents, against a per share loss of 3 cents last year. That beat an analysts estimate for a loss of 21 cents per share.
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2 minutes ago, lightinfa said:
1.4m Wednesday for Challengers:
Roughly 40% drop from Tuesday...and 14% from Monday...
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57 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:
suddenly I can’t read English
So, reading the article title, he ruled out all results for the Fall Guy between $30-$50M...seems a risky approach...
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9 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:
I think Bad Boys is really gonna surprise some people here! Then again, I am in a mostly non-white area in Miami metro region, so certainly I'm oversampling. It led me right last time!
Not the thread...but I agree.
I think it's the perfect timing for the open, and it's gonna open in a great weekend spot. I'd join a Bad Boys OW DOM over The Fall Guys OW DOM...heck, I might even join one against Apes (which I think is also gonna disappoint, but probably not as bad against folks' initial Jan 2024 expectations as Fall Guy will)...
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6 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:
The thing is, even if there was no Mufasa, I don't see why Sonic 3 would miraculously turn into an event. Because Mufasa simply exists, suddenly Sonic 3 is going to do $200m more than Sonic 2? I just don't buy it.
As for Mufasa, I'm not convinced this will do over $1 Billion, but it's Audience Score is in the high 80s, while Captain Marvel's is rotten.
It's not that Sonic 3 will do $200M more domestic than Sonic 2. It's that Sonic 3 will at least match Sonic 2 DOM and probably do a little more...whereas Mufasa is a huge wildcard for DOM - matching The Lion King seems really unlikely, so it's a question of how much less. And that's where the discussion for Christmas is.
If your family can only afford one movie, which one will they pick? I have gamers and now older kids, so my kids are an easy vote. It will be interesting how the families split - boy/girl, young/old, etc. And quality will matter for both to see the split.
Mufasa will be a lot of family audience with a likely decent sized young adult to older adult female base. Sonic 3 will have a very large teen/young adult male base to help buoy its movie on top of families. Who is coming out to movies now...and who will at Christmas?
Seeing this month and last...I think the males currently have it for turnout, but anything can change by Christmas.
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Local Cinemark final sets for this weekend - Fall Guy got ONE extra late night showing at my PLF for 2.25 screens (and 9 showings Fri/Sun and 11 Sat) - at the non-PLF, it got an extra screen to have 2 screens (8 showings Fri/Sun and 9 Sat)...
So, even if walk ups are bonkers, there's just not gonna be a lot of open space to walk into...aka, Cinemark does not have faith this is breaking out wildly above its current presales-to-weekend-multiplier landing spot (aka, no $50M+ incoming, I don't think)...
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25 minutes ago, AniNate said:
We're over a month removed from the last kids movie so I definitely think that will help this on opening weekend
It will help, but animated is an easier sell to kids than live action. You use live action when you want to appeal to an older crew more (see the recent Ghostbusters). So, we'll see how this does.
It feels like Pokemon (aka Detective Pikachu) without the Pokemon...maybe that helps, but maybe it doesn't...
I'm not as optimistic as the Twitter post...
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3 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:
At least paramount is trying new pricing mechanism, from all day matinee price and now PiF to safeguard theatrical experience. Unlike other studio that actively exploiting the moviegoers by shortening the exclusive window.
Not for IF - that movie does not have all-day matinee price at my Cinemark...
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4 minutes ago, filmscholar said:
Does this mean "Sonic 3" will move out of this slot. I mean it will clearly have to fight for Families against a Juggernaut like "The Lion King". Regardless of how the critics or fans of the original feel. Disney had 1.6 Billion reasons to do this sequel. It's also been 5 years since the last one and this is the 30th Anniversary of the original. The timing is right for another gangbuster performance. Of course this is Post-Covid so 1.6 Billion again will be hard. "Avatar 2" even dropped as good as it did. But over a Billion is definitely a lock with Christmas and New Years to clean up.
No?
It's shaping up to be another Christmas season where everyone splits the holiday money and goes away mostly satisfied...
A super, a gamer movie, and an animated musical...pretty much the only thing left to schedule is the Oscar dramas...
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51 minutes ago, AniNate said:
Cinemark still doesn't have it on sale yet so yeah, I imagine anyone's who's already bought a ticket would have to be an abnormally huge Krasinski fan
But, it does have it set.
IF is getting the same opening sets at my Cinemarks as the Fall Guy - 2 screens (1 PLF) at PLF theater, and 1 screen at non-PLF theater.
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6 hours ago, ringedmortality said:
I feel like the “cost of living” thing gets brought frequently but is there any evidence that has an effect on theaters? Inflation rate was higher during Barbenheimer more than it is now. The Great Recession didn’t seem to impact the 08 box office at all.Inflation is cumulative. So the rate now may be lower, but you're feeling all the pain of the increases from before plus still the lower rate now. It hurts more and more as time goes on if wages don't keep up...and they haven't. So, unless you get deflation or some extended period of time when wage increases exceed inflation, you don't escape the pain of what came before for a while.
Okay, smart stuff done for the day - time for movie box office.
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1 hour ago, AJG said:
A guy at work said The Fall Guy looked like a Netflix Original Movie and that stuck with me. It doesn’t look bad - it just looks Netflix-y (maybe it’s Gosling. IDK).I was thinking it looks like Red Notice - big stars, big stunts, a twist, and a sorta-but-not-totally rom com.
It's why I've been thinking it's not catching. Netflix has made these movies available for free, so why pay $20/person for a date night weekend?
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5 hours ago, cinema pal said:
Not sure
It's R against PG family movies.
I know the writers are trash, but Chandor is good director so there's still hope.
Didn't watch Lion king 2019 and both Sonics, I think many moviegoers will skip them as tired IP chore.
Btw, loved Barry Jenkins' previous efforts but I will sit this new one out, it just feels like a colossal waste of his talents .
I agree - Karate Kid was gonna get obliterated b/c it was gonna be a 3rd family movie, and obviously a 3rd choice.
This movie might be able to survive in the holiday corridor on bored college kids and young adults (particularly males) - and a supers movie usually does okay during the holiday corrdior.
So, smart move by Sony to kick their family movie - I don't know if this was the right replacement, but it is what they had, and this should do better than the Labor Day corridor would have given them b/c September is unusually stronger than normal...although less so now...
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12 hours ago, filmlover said:
In other news, major Sony release date changes:
Kraven the Hunter: from 8/30/24 to 12/13/24
The Karate Kid legacy reboot: from 12/13/24 to 5/30/25
'Kraven the Hunter' Pushed to December Release by Sony (variety.com)
Kraven now hitting screens over 14 months after losing the original October 2023 date that marketing money had already been spent on. What a joke.
Definitely deciding they want the Aquaman 2 corridor...not sure it's as empty in 2024, but I guess we'll see if other movies slip out of December...
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So, OT, but Deadline reported Paw Patrol 2 was the 10th most profitable movie last year...dang!
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"Amazon MGM Studios’ Challengers is looking at $6.2M today (that includes the near $2M previews) which will get the movie to $15M at 3,477 theaters...
In second is Lionsgate/Kingdom Story’s Unsung Hero with $3.4M-$3.9M today, and $7M-$9M for the weekend at 2,832.
Legendary/Warner Bros.’ fifth weekend of Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire is in third at 3,312 locations with $1.7M today, and $7M for the 3-day, -27%, for a running total of $181.5M.
Fourth is the third frame of A24’s Civil War at 3,518 sites with $1.8M today, and $6.2M, -44%, for a running cume by Sunday of $55.3M.
Fifth goes to Universal’s Radio Silence directed horror movie Abigail in 3,393 theaters with a Friday of $1.35M, 3-day of $4.5M, -56%, and ten-day of $18M.
Bill Skarsgård in ‘Boy Kills World‘Courtesy of TIFF Roadside Attractions’ Boy Kills World is coming in at $900K today, $1.9M for the weekend at 1,993 theaters."
From Deadline's early numbers - https://deadline.com/2024/04/box-office-challengers-zendaya-1235896116/
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12 hours ago, VanillaSkies said:
I can’t remember the last time I’ve seen such front loading than with Unsung Hero’s EA shows today compared to its preview shows tomorrow. I guess all the fans of the band decided to come out tonight? Was it marketed to that target audience to get tickets for Wednesday? The front loading just seems so extreme. If they end up rolling EA and Thursday previews into Friday numbers, that Saturday drop could be epic!
Free tickets were only available for the opening preview.
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1 hour ago, vafrow said:
Full showtimes are up for the Thursday previews for Fall Guy, and across my five screen sample, it only added two showings.
Theyre really maintaining a light touch on this one. It's not like there's a lot in theatres right now that warrants holding onto screens either.
To go along with that, while final sets are not up for my Cinemarks, it is telling that Fall Guy is NOT getting all PLF at my PLF theater. Instead, the Star Wars re-release is getting 1 full XD (and 2 screens for presales), which is the same as Fall Guy. At my other local, Star Wars is not yet booked, and Fall Guy is still sitting at 1 screen for presales.
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7 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:
Challengers MTC1
Early Shows(4/22) final - 18092/62617 373746.58 263 shows +3377
Previews(T-3) - 14715/272266 288951.39 1540 shows +3000
Friday - 14722/428870 278017.78 2375 shows +3665
Good for sure. Early Shows will skew MTC1 big time(looking at MTC2, gross wont be that much). I am thinking 550-600K for early shows. Previews should accelerate tomorrow if WOM from early shows is good. Thinking 2.5m+ previews including early shows and 20m ish OW.
$5 tickets are live...but remember, they tend to help Friday and Saturday more than Thursday, b/c if it's $5 anytime, why not go on a weekend night:)...
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Yeah, maybe I've outgrown it or gotten sick of the multiversal stuff...but I'm not feelin' it. It's not funny and the plot seems like another Loki-series-adjacent plot. I am glad others are liking it.
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3 hours ago, Spidey Freak said:
Garfield would have been insanely huge if it had come out this month instead of on Memorial weekend. It will still be big but in April it may have delivered a GxK level surprise
Nope, it needs all the swim team and summer camp trips before Inside Out 2...April would have been a terrible month for it.
KFP2 and Ghostbusters will do the mop up that's available in April. Memorial Day is the big "schools out" for many areas, so that's as early as you want to set your summer animated.
Weekend Numbers | Thu Previews | 3.15M THE FALL GUY | 0.715M TAROT
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
Well, March proved people wanted to go to movies during a big holiday/school break corridor...
March = spring break/Easter
June/July = summer break
Half of November = Thanksgiving break
Half of December = Christmas break
And GA is okay only going then, and possibly not every one of those breaks if the movies aren't good enough.
It's gonna be hard to keep a business alive with real business only 4 months/year...