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TwoMisfits

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Posts posted by TwoMisfits

    Weekend Numbers | estimates | 45.2M GHOSTBUSTERS: FROZEN EMPIRE | 17.6M DUNE II | 16.8M KFP IV

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    51 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

    Do we know that Monkey Man will not those 5 dollar tickets yet?It's still 2 weeks away. 

     

    No, we don't.  So, we'll see what happens if it does.  We should know, at minimum, a week before release if a deal is coming from TMobile (normally 2 weeks, but Ghostbusters just showed last minute decisions are made)...Fandango (or corporate ones, which KFP4 got) are much more random...

    • Like 1

    Weekend Numbers | estimates | 45.2M GHOSTBUSTERS: FROZEN EMPIRE | 17.6M DUNE II | 16.8M KFP IV

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

    It's because of all the people saying things like Arthur The King and Immaculate would not have made money ever. Maybe. But we hear that line with every single movie of this size that struggles. And so I wanted to point out - these movies used to make money, all the time.

     

    Only a few movies can make money at a time.

    I think religious movies can only support 1 every 3 months or so.

    I think family movies can only support 1 every 2 months or so, except in summer, when 1 a month is doable.

    I think only 1 uber-big blockbuster a month can be supported, except in summer and at Christmas.

     

    It's just the way it currently is.  There is a movie subscriber base that will see most things each and every week (save family, international, religious. and bad movies) and give a floor to many movies, but also a pretty hard ceiling.  And there's a GA that will go 2-5 times a year and sky 1-2 movies/year and help a few other movies go big, especially with reduced ticket price options or summer set ups (aka summer camp viewing).  But, only a few...

     

    And that's where we are.  

    • Like 1

    Weekend Numbers | estimates | 45.2M GHOSTBUSTERS: FROZEN EMPIRE | 17.6M DUNE II | 16.8M KFP IV

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by TwoMisfits

    24 minutes ago, Maggie said:

    Yeah, this April's gonna be a wasteland. Studios' fault for not scheduling at least something interesting. I agree with your prediction for the above movies.

     

    Gonna give March movies a chance for some nice late legs...the next 2 weeks should be very nice already for the March movie legs...and then the blockbusters probably hang around til May (looking at Dune, and less KFP4)...

    • Like 2

    Weekend Numbers | estimates | 45.2M GHOSTBUSTERS: FROZEN EMPIRE | 17.6M DUNE II | 16.8M KFP IV

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, AniNate said:

    Eesh, don't think $200mil is happening anymore. That word-of-mouth really must've dinged it.

     

    Nah, it just opened as a $35M family movie with $25M in older teen money.  So, it's gonna go 4x+ that family money + the OW teen money (which didn't catch on post the weekend, like Minions did), or exactly where it should have ended up.

     

    It wasn't really a "family opener" in the traditional sense, but more a hybrid, so a lower leg multiplier...

    Weekend Numbers | estimates | 45.2M GHOSTBUSTERS: FROZEN EMPIRE | 17.6M DUNE II | 16.8M KFP IV

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by TwoMisfits

    So, we saw Ghostbusters:).  It has the same problem as Eternals, but to a lesser degree...TOO MANY characters.  Just too many.  I mean, it had the advantage of having them all introduced before, but it just doesn't help enough, especially when they do continue to introduce new characters. 

     

    So, the movie struggles all movie juggling the cast and their purpose, giving them spotlight time, hitting nostalgia points, getting through plot exposition, etc.  Like Eternals, the movie just feels way longer than it is b/c of trying to fit in too many folks.  

     

    That said, it was still an enjoyable movie.  My 2 youngest boys (tween and teen) loved it, while my older teen girl was not thrilled.  Spouse and I were happy, but not amazed.

     

    For the grades, spouse and I gave it a B-.  He also said it was 2 written drafts and some character pruning from being a home run.

    Boys gave it an A-.

    Teen girl wouldn't grade, but was happy she saw a movie.

     

    The best times of the movie were with Bill Murray on screen - damn, he still has it.  The worst parts were where the 2 teen girls shared a scene b/c my own teen girl said that "looking lifeless" was not supposed to be what both were doing, and they couldn't decide what they wanted their screen emoting to be, so you have this deadness on screen.

     

    Also, going to the (audience asks, why would she do that - answer "b/c she's a teen and the movie plot needs it") trope over and over was a bit...much...

    • Like 8

    The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted · Edited by TwoMisfits

    So, this month's movies have added more deals on Fandango - Ghostbusters one won't matter (b/c TMobile's is WAY better) but Godzilla's might...

     

    Ghostbusters - $5 off 1 ticket

    Godzilla - Buy 2, Get 1 Free - up to $15 off (would have way more effect as a BOGO, but this IS a national, publicized deal)

     

    Godzilla will NOT have a TMobile deal.

    • Like 5

    Disney + Hulu | Marvel Studios' Echo | January 10th | Marvels First TV-MA Series

    in Streaming, TV Series, & VOD Movies

    Posted

    I finally watched Echo.  It was kinda horrible.  It's one step up from Secret Invasion, but that's about it.

     

    Turning the character into a Walmart version of Black Panther vs showing her learning from Kingpin in her comic book physical mimcry style was such a mistake from the concept get go.  She could be so impressive with that mimicry (since once learned, she never loses the ability), and it was kinda just waved away as not important.  And it didn't help that to show the conversion of the power set away from mimicry to ancestor power, you got to see folks that I thought would have been better cast as Echo and who were better actors.

     

    The show had pretty much zero stakes, went nowhere, had little super powered action, concluded in a non-satisfying way, and existed solely, it seems, to re-establish that Kingpin is alive and back in charge.

     

    D+ for another D+ show is my grade.  They have to start doing better.

    • Astonished 1

    The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

    Normally that offer come just before release. Why so much earlier this time?

     

    It is just before release (it's always Tuesday before) - it's actually announced later than usual.  Usually, most films announce 2 weeks prior to the deal, not 5 days before, so this one might have been a little last minutes after the 2 big opens...

    The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted · Edited by TwoMisfits

    So, the Ghostbusters folks are reading this thread...and might be worried about being forgotten.

     

    3rd Atom/TMobile deal of the year - Ghostbusters - $5 tickets, available starting next Tuesday, 3/19.  Expect a slight slowdown in presales from now til then, and then a bigger "walk up" and last minute buyer through the weekend...

     

    2024 Atom/TMobile $5 ticket deals

    Beekeeper

    Marley

    Ghostbusters

     

    (Edit to Add - and 6 free months of Apple TV again...so I'll be a subscriber for the 3rd time...maybe I'll watch more this time - I did the 2nd time vs the 1st time)...

     

    • Like 5

    3/08-3/10 Weekend Estimates : KFP 4 : 58,3M , Dune 2 : 46,3M , Imaginary : 10M , Caprini : 7,6M

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    59 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:

    Diversity demos for kung fu panda 4 

     

    hispsnics/latinos 44%
     

    White 22%
     

    black 11%

     

    Asian 18%
     

    I did not know po was that popular with the Latinos, that’s awesome hahah. Bodes well for Latin America international numbers 

     

     

     

    Yeah, I figured Asian would overindex...and it did.  But dang on the Latino number.  Normally it would be a percent or two above Caucasian for a family movie that draws evenly by US demos.  But this time, it's enormous.  

    • Like 2

    3/08-3/10 Weekend Estimates : KFP 4 : 58,3M , Dune 2 : 46,3M , Imaginary : 10M , Caprini : 7,6M

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by TwoMisfits

    7 hours ago, leoh said:


    so you’re missing this forum for some weeks I guess lol, some people even called out @Shawn Robbins cuz his first projection was basically like  “Calm down, Dune won’t be making a 100M OW”, and he turned out to be right. However, some weeks ago some people were overhyped after some news saying that “rival studios” were seeing Dune making 1 billion. Shawn was the first one (or at least one of them) to bring down to earth those crazy expectations. Some people (not only on this forum) got upset because he was not even considering 100M as a possibility. 


    Who? I won’t be exposing anyone. Tracking is a really hard thing to do, people who this for love deserve every praise. Sometimes you get it right some times you don’t. And this is ok. :) 

     

     

    Shawn's 1st opening predictions were $50-$75M and $125-$195M DOM - and yes, I told him they were too low...a lot...those 1st few weeks when they weren't changing...and they were too low.

     

    My 1st opening predictions (which folks on this board know I don't tend to abandon just b/c of presales) of $102/$325M were too high (at least for OW)...we should have met in the middle:)...and he almost did at the end:).

     

    So, Leoh, please continue...over and over and over again...and keep beating the dead horse.  You've contributed so much valuable feedback to these boards so far.  

    • Like 1

    The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    13 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

    @keysersoze123 Troll 3 FRI MTC 1 was just 18.5%. Never really bothered about looking chain wise share for small animation films but make sense they will underindex heavily in MTC1. Though I guess KFP may be a bit better than Trolls 3.

     

    For everyone, Trolls 3 MTC1 comps for KFP 4  are $3.75M THU & $15.5M FRI. 

     

    If they end up true, it could be

    3.75
    15.5
    23
    16 // 58

     

    And now we know where every trackers high numbers are coming from...

    The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    20 minutes ago, Jerri Blank-Diggler said:

    Fascinating forecasting/tracking weekend when the trades (and referenced rival distributors) are the ones beating the High OW drums for KFP4. The Wrap coming out with "at least $56 million" OW for KP4 and even daring to invoke the $60 million possibility is wild compared to the more cautious tracking-based forecast consensuses developing on here.

     

    “Kung Fu Panda 4” is currently tracking to take the No.1 spot with an opening weekend of at least $56 million, with rival distributors saying the film has a chance to top $60 million. 

    Article can be read without a paywall at https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/last-box-office-variety-promising-173000900.html

     

    $3.2 M previews - $3.5 M previews would require IMs

           - between 16 and 17.5 to get to $56 M, and

           - between 17.1 and 18.75 to get to $60 M.

    That's a lot of Skadoosh.

     

    I feel like there's some hopecasting going on that family buying and attendance trends of early 2023 will repeat in early 2024 (aka the Mario spring break trend).  I mean, we have nothing to say they won't, b/c we have had so few animated movies.  Then again, we've had nothing to say they will.

    • Like 1
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