TwoMisfits
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Posts posted by TwoMisfits
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1 minute ago, Porthos said:
We still had one locally as late as 2020. Doing decently too, as a second run theater. The 'rona killed it and it never came back.
I expect a lot of second run theaters died during the theater lockdown. Might be interesting to know just how many, if any, are still around.
COVID might have hastened the inevitable collapse due to streaming, but I get the sense that second run theaters still had a tiny niche as a "good place for teenagers/collage student to go and hang out and have a good time". Not nearly enough of them to make a thriving business model with multiple locations in a given market, but maybe enough to keep the lights on.
A similar niche that drive-ins occupy, come to think of it, though drive-ins still usually show first-run content.
'Covid killed my 2nd run with the owner switching it to a 1st run...
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13 minutes ago, AniNate said:
I feel like most people who pony up for PVOD weren't gonna otherwise be spending that money seeing the movie in theaters. My impression is the appeal is mostly for large families where going out to a theater is prohibitively expensive both financially and logistically and just a one click payment to watch a movie on your home theater and start it, pause it, mute it and turn it off whenever you want is a pretty damn good bargain by comparison, honestly even compared to rounding everyone up to drive to a dollar theater it probably has more appeal.
I think the biggest appeal is for elderly members with family visiting. When you're on a weekly caretaker visit and want something new to do with them for conversation and just happy fun.
Like my spouse's parents no longer really go anywhere (one is completely shut in and the other is a full time caretaker). I know if there was a movie they wanted, they'd buy it on PVOD now. And when we visit and my kids want to watch something they didn't have on streaming, they'd buy it to have something to do together.
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2 minutes ago, AniNate said:
I'm just relieved we're finally past the "reading into critical reviews to confirm your biases" and manufactured controversies phase and people are deciding now how much they like the movie themselves
RT actually has identical 82% scores (critics and audience) right now. One is usually a good sign; one is usually a bad sign. Flip your coin.
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25 minutes ago, AniNate said:
Surprisingly high PLF demand for Civil War compared to normie screenings around here. I guess the marketing was really effective at pushing it as something like a blockbuster. Crocker Park 7pm IMAX showing nearly sold out.
If that's an AMC, all their subscribers just watch Imax (or whatever PLF something is on) every week b/c it's free for them, so why not. It would tend to confirm a low GA turnout and a high subscriber one...
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43 minutes ago, Ziddletwix said:
Deadline/the-numbers reporting 2.9M for Civil War Thursday. Is that gap (from the 3.5M expected) surprising, or am I missing something?
Could be the movie was VERY over indexed at MTC1, maybe due to limited geography appeal, maybe due to very limited GA, etc...
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10 hours ago, narniadis said:
This is where I want to quote my post from the weekend about the drops being returned to normal.
Then they turned a tad higher than normal 🤣🤣
@TwoMisfitsguess we both were wrong this time.
I guess eclipses are just wildly more popular for day off viewing:)...
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13 minutes ago, Speedorito said:
To be clear, I actually have seen this film already. My comments about the Purge film were hyperbolic of course, but the film really doesn’t have much to say politically. If anything, the war is set in America for shock value and to make it more relatable (and marketable) than setting it in a generic Middle Eastern country.
I’d say the issue is less that there’s little context behind the alliances, or even why the war even broke out, but that the factions are sort of indistinguishable. The obvious rebuttal would be “the point is that we’re all humans and war is bad” (and maybe some people need that reminder) but it came off as…amateurish.
At the end of the day if you’re arguing about the politics you’ve already fallen for the marketing hype.
So, having seen the film, the movie is all hype, no delivery? Disappointing, but what I expected when I thought $10-$15M OW after seeing the trailer and the film title. I checked this thread to see if my gut feelings from the trailers differed from folks' experiences, since I thought someone must have gotten to see this early...
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6 minutes ago, emoviefan said:
Should be a interesting battle between Civil War and GXK for number 1 next weekend. Seems both will target 15-20 million weekends. Maybe Civil does surprise a little and hit or get close to 20 or maybe it flames out ala Monkey Man and does 10-15. Gxk was this weekend's drop just because it was coming off a holiday fueled 1st weekend and it will stabilize or has it burned through the audience who really want to see it. Should be interesting.
I'm thinking $10-15M is the right range for Civil War...I just don't see the potential for bigger numbers that some folks do...
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1 hour ago, narniadis said:
I mean, poor(ish) openings aside, this was a fairly solid weekend for the products in the marketplace. The week ass Friday increases set the story though overall... still not sure why they were less than 100%, especially for the family leaning flicks. UNLESS there were more schools out this past week then we realized (which could definitely be a factor.) Monday drops should be back to the nasty normals of 75-80% outside of the major adult films.
Except maybe this Monday - so many school systems have off for the eclipse. Of course, the question is will folks all be doing that, or enjoying the day off?
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2 hours ago, JimmyB said:
Ordinary Angels? That movie already came out and is gone from theaters. Do you mean Unsung Hero? That looks like the same type of movie as Ordinary Angels. Movies that open to around 7m and end their run at 18m.
Oops - yep, that one. Can you tell I was rushing to get ready this morning?:)
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Speaking of deals, I didn't post these b/c they were Atom limited (and ran out within hours)...but The Long Game offered free tickets a week ago for today (but were usable for whatever opening day was at a theater), and Ordinary Angels offered free tickets (twice) for their opening day only. So, if both movies have surprising previews and/or opening days, now you know why (no idea how many were offered, but as I said, they ran out in a day, so I think it was more limited than KFP4, as an example)...
I couldn't do April 7 (kid college admission event), so no seeing The Long Game for me.
I do have April 24 tickets for Ordinary Angels, which I'm hoping I'll be able to see, but we'll see if kid stuff gets in the way (weeknights are tough, but free date nights are priceless, so fingers crossed)...
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This is why holidays (Christmas/Easter) and summer (swim teams/summer camp) are now the only times to sky family movies...families will pay twice a year for movies, and summer kid groups will pay for cheap field trips for their campers (walk into any weekly summer kid movie showing and you see ACRES of campers) - so you have guaranteed huge audiences for those times...and no others.
It's why every animated movie fights for those slots now.
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1 hour ago, harry713 said:
I guess it also depends on how often you frequent the theater. I pay $25 a month for my AMC A-List pass, which is $2 cheaper than my current Netflix subscription, and have seen 17 films this year, mostly in Dolby, and spent an average of $5.88 a ticket so far (4 monthly payments x $25), which will keep averaging down as I see more films this month.
My point being, if theatergoing is an activity someone wants to invest time in it doesn’t need to be expensive in 2024, and in fact I’m spending significantly less than I did in 2008 when I was at the theater all summer long, and without a guaranteed seat.
Right, for individuals...
Now compare that Netflix subscription monthly cost vs AMC individual subscriber cost to a family of 4-6...and see why families/kids have fallen away from theaters while individual adults have not (and why most blockbusters now have a subscriber floor, but also a pretty hard ceiling, unless they become the true breakouts)...
$25 to $27 - $2/month difference...no big deal.
$100-$150 to $27 - $73 to $123/month difference - huge deal.
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12 minutes ago, M37 said:
But it’s the only real family movie, so will be held mostly by default. Migration was still in 2400 locations in week 11, before KDP4 came out. The overall release schedule will be stronger (Migration was still top 6 that week!), so wouldn’t bank on that number, but should have no problem keeping 2000+ through April, maybe ~1500 until late May
Maybe. It will also depend on where it ranks on BO/screen...you get held when you are staying near the top of the average.
Right now, Ghostbusters, Kong, and KFP4 are all drawing families of 8+. Unlike Migration, none of them draw "little kids", so there's no need to choose one over the other except by box office.
To be held long term, you have to keep having openers open and fail. Next weekend, the 4 March movies (Dune, KFP4, Ghostbusters, and Godzilla) will probably be safe again at their theaters b/c this weekend's openers bombed and Civil War is the only thing of note opening next weekend (with a Shrek re-release). So, there will still be enough screens to carry the big 4 (plus this weekend's openers 2 week requirements and this week's openers) at most midsize and up theaters. And that will probably continue on the April 19 weekend b/c this week's 2 openers will get dropped as will the Shrek re-release for Abigail, Spy, and the Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare...
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6 hours ago, SaltyPistola said:
Isn't a C pretty average for a horror
No, that's actually a below average score, even for horror...
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2 hours ago, Eric Atreides said:
Civil War is the only one I can see being a breakout. A lot is riding on it. Otherwise, I’ll have to rant about n*stalgic t*y c*mmercials again. I’m out here looking like this rn.
While I think April will underperform, if I had to throw my marker down on "what movie breaks $20M OW", it would be the Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare. Seems like a movie that the movie subscriber base will see even if they really aren't that interested or invested...and that helps give a movie a certain floor.
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37 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:
I'd say most of the country has spring break in the middle/late portion of March. I'd imagine the only April spring breaks are in the cold portions of the country.
Catholic schools normally take the week after Easter - that's small, but widespread.
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2 hours ago, JohnnyGossamer said:
Far more people are off for Christmas than they are for Easter in US/CAN. Far more people are off the day after Christmas than are off the day after Easter in US/CAN. Easter is kinda falling down the pole as to how many people are given holiday and/or celebrate the holiday.
All true. My kid in college not only didn't have days off, but had lab Friday night and an exam and paper due Monday morning - aka, no break at all. My spouse got and took no days off.
Plus, Easter is about Church, egg hunts, and a nice meal. Outdoors is a thing b/c you celebrate new life. It's all about spring.
Christmas is cold. Outdoor entertainment is pretty limited. Movies are about the one thing all ages can do. And there's 2 weeks where everyone K-16 are off, and most of the workforce takes off a full week or more, too.
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2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:
So my locals look wasn't crazy:)...
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1 hour ago, M37 said:
Looked at bit more into data this morning, and I’m starting to think $7-$9M for GxK was a bit too cautious, even after the flattish Tue sales
Going to bump that up at bit to $7.5-$9.5M, making $70M right arounf the midpoint
You know, I feel like Porthos when there's a TMobile/Atom deal...I look at my MTC2's in my area, which is on spring break, and I say, "Self, does this looking like a $70M opener in presales right now", and I have to say no. But I don't doubt strength elsewhere...it's just not at an MTC 2 spring break area...ie - this is not drawing families, at least here. Almost all sales for Thurs/Fri are evening only...
PS - This is fun to watch, even as I play no part.
PPS - Okay, I'll play a little part - my PLF local isn't even giving Godzilla all PLF - it's splitting with Ghostbusters (did I mention we're on spring break here)...
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2 hours ago, AniNate said:
Well, while that political beef is going on, the one that started two years ago has finally ended
Settlement reached in lawsuit between Disney and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis' allies | AP News
Seems like Iger wanted this issue out of the way, b/c Disney got almost nothing out of the settlement. But now it's over, so it's a done issue.
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Another option on Ghostbusters is they carried some of the Atom $5 ticket juice forward (ala Sound of Freedom with the prebought tickets) and as they get used (b/c I could have bought all the way through Easter weekend), the days will all just be a tiny bit lower...
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5 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:
MON
Should be 2.85, lets see what Sony give
1.9
1.65Did you consider theater buyouts for kid birthday parties for the weekend? They wouldn't show in your Ghostbusters numbers, right? It's like the 2020 problem when we were tracking movies that allowed theater buyouts vs ticket sales that now really only affects new kid/family movie releases b/c they are so infrequent, you get a pile all booking the same movie for the same Sat/Sun showings...maybe?
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1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:
The question for me is whether it can outopen Dune 2. It felt like a solid possibility but last few days have been a bit slow for that. Still could make a comeback.
@TwoMisfits can you tell about GxK offers and when do they begin.
There aren't any now. No TMobile/Atom deal, and last week's B2G1 free Fandango deal ended Sunday night.
I'll look if anything later has popped up last minute...
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Weekend Numbers | actuals | 15.54M GODZILLA×KONG: THE NEW EMPIRE
in Numbers and Data
Posted · Edited by TwoMisfits
Dang, I have given the F- grade, but yeah, it's normally b/c I really, really hate it. It doesn't even have to be the worst made movie, it can just put me in the most pissed off mood about what they made (or didn't make)...
PS - This is the kinda WOM where I say "yep, legs will be awful" b/c "it's good" doesn't go nearly as far as "I was pissed off after seeing this"...no one wants to pay to be pissed off...