TwoMisfits
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Posts posted by TwoMisfits
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14 minutes ago, Shawn said:
A lot to get into here, but the TL;DR version is that Wish's numbers were "finalized" a little longer out from opening day than usual due to some immediate family health issues I've been dealing with for the last couple of weeks.
Disney mentioned early last week that they expected 45-50 5-day, which looked feasible based on the most recent pre-sales data I had seen and what was being told to me. I didn't have time to hands-on re-model in the way I usual like to. I didn't actually intend to have the high end of the range in the weekend forecast article but it slipped my mind and honestly wasn't very important to me with things going on at home during that time.
Unfortunately, it didn't even come close to that range, but again we're talking about numbers from different points in time. I very likely would have gone sub-45with enough time to pay attention on Saturday morning when I was trying to finalize the forecast early in anticipation of a hectic week. Hindsight is 20/20.
Even that would have been too high, of course. I agree with you, though, the major underperformance is a clear indication Disney's audience is now trained to wait for non-urgent theatrical releases until they hit streaming, probably more so than any other studio or streaming service. That's certainly something I'm going to be factoring into long range and pre-sale tracking/forecasts for Disney pics going forward now that we have a movie that's more squarely within their wheelhouse (unlike Strange World) to provide a better comparison point for their audience specifically without things like COVID skewing data.
Just keep pinging us and asking us for ranges if you aren't sure - if it helps, I think you're too high on Beyonce this weekend, but this is coming from someone who is not a concert movie goer who is just seeing showing contraction in my area, not from actual presales or presale rates per se...but you figure if you're losing shows, you can't sell those seats later...so...
Then again, maybe, what $23+ ticket minimums do pay off if you get just your core wild base there...
Edit to Add: And I hope the family is on the path to recovery now, since you're posting...fingers crossed!
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Please, please, please don't write another origin story. Just have the 4 already powered up, as a team, ready to go. Their stories are what sell, not their origin, especially in 2023.
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26 minutes ago, Taylor89 said:
Don't think it will do over 40m.
I think the over/under is $20M for the weekend, but yes, we'll definitely see.
It might be priced too high and seem to boring for any GA to check it out, unlike Taylor's show which seemed like a party to GA...
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Non-PLF Cinemark 12 is also in early. Here's their set...it did NOT book Silent Night...
NEW
Beyonce - 1.5 (5 showings) screen - this is also a contraction of .5 screen from presales
Animal - 1.5 screens - a slight expansion
The Shift - 1 screen
Godzilla - .25 screen (1 showing) - I think someone didn't set this correctly, and it's getting some of the missing screen sets, but we'll see
Returning
Wish - 1.5 screens
Napoleon - 1 screen
HG: BOSS - 1 screen
Trolls - 1 screen, but with 2 early shows and no late show (that went to Animal)
The Marvels - 1 screen
Thanksgiving - .75 screen
1.5 screen-ish not set, so I think Godzilla is getting most and possibly a 2nd foreign film
Dropped: Next Goal Wins, Elf (return), Foreign film - they had already done most of their drops last weekend - this weekend just cut all the screens to the bone for the holdovers...
Again, under $20M for the weekend winner, i think...
Edit to Add: I looked ahead on the weekend and Beyonce drops to one screen Sat/Sun with Wish and Trolls getting the excess...it was definitely overset in presales here...
Edit to Add 2: Godzilla got the whole extra screen, so it's at 1 screen + 1 showing. Now, there's just a showing or two held back, which could be for whatever opener does best.
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So, figured I'd update a set for post Thanksgiving -
No real expansion for openers at my PLF 14, save the foreign film...so it's...
NEW
Beyonce - 1.75 screens - 1 PLF/1 reg - 7 showings (4 PLF / 3 reg - earliest showing stolen to bring back an animated) - no expansion (in fact, it's a slight contraction)
Animal - 1.5 screens - ,5 PLF/ 1 regular - 5 showings - this expanded slightly
Godzilla - 1 screen
Shift - 1 screen
Silent Night - 1 screen
Returning
HG: BOSS - 1.5 screens - .5 PLF / 1 reg (lost 1)
Wish - 1 screen (2nd smallest type) (lost 1.5)
Napoleon - 1 screen (lost 1)
Trolls - 1 screen (same size as Wish) (lost 1.5)
Marvels - 1 screen (same size as Wish)
Thanksgiving - 1 screen
Saltburn/Taylor/Glisten - 1 showing each
At the end, there's about 1/2 screen worth of showings left, so they may be booking a 2nd foreign film...
Dropped: FNAF, Next Goal Wins, Priscilla, The Holdovers
So, with this type of set, nothing's going high this weekend - maybe $20M tops for the winner?
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Final Numbers...Wish only beat Trolls by $1.8M for the 3 day...
Weekend Domestic Chart for November 24, 2023
Register with The Numbers for free to see additional data and customize this chart.
← Previous Chart Chart Index Movie Title Distributor Gross %LW Theaters Theaters
ChangePer
TheaterTotal
GrossWeekends In
Release1 (1) The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes Lionsgate $29,042,517 -35% 3,776 n/c $7,691 $98,601,297 2 2 N Napoleon Sony Pictures $20,638,887 3,500 $5,897 $32,752,716 1 3 N Wish Walt Disney $19,698,228 3,900 $5,051 $31,609,340 1 4 (2) Trolls Band Together Universal $17,809,660 -41% 3,893 +23 $4,575 $64,763,725 2 5 (3) Thanksgiving Sony Pictures $7,070,793 -31% 3,204 n/c $2,207 $24,000,325 2 6 (4) The Marvels Walt Disney $6,325,243 -38% 3,070 -960 $2,060 $76,755,559 3 7 (7) The Holdovers Focus Features $2,798,235 +4% 1,601 +123 $1,748 $12,931,320 5 8 (6) TAYLOR SWIFT | THE ERAS TOUR AMC Theatres… $2,307,857 -16% 946 -627 $2,440 $178,243,751 7 9 (14) Saltburn Amazon Studios $1,860,648 +477% 1,566 +1,559 $1,188 $3,222,673 2 10 (5) Five Nights at Freddy’s Universal $1,729,155 -51% 1,754 -1,075 $986 $136,184,280 5 11 (8) Next Goal Wins Searchlight … $1,638,775 -34% 2,240 n/c $732 $5,659,837 2 - (9) Priscilla A24 $1,300,032 -44% 1,063 -739 $1,223 $19,602,138 5 - (10) Killers of the Flower Moon Paramount Pi… $1,105,099 -44% 767 -947 $1,441 $65,675,456 6 - (13) Radical Pantelion Films $755,341 -21% 325 -136 $2,324 $7,817,638 4 - (12) Journey to Bethlehem Sony Pictures $650,000 -35% 1,384 -618 $470 $5,725,293 3 - (16) Dream Scenario A24 $639,521 +149% 124 +99 $5,157 $1,387,818 3 - (11) Tiger 3 Yash Raj Films $389,139 -62% 196 -174 $1,985 $5,365,263 3 - (-) Anatomy of a Fall Neon $91,282 -48% 77 -93 $1,185 $3,372,396 7 - (-) Fallen Leaves MUBI $41,406 -15% 8 +6 $5,176 $114,511 2 - (-) Oppenheimer Universal $28,255 -35% 102 -2 $277 $325,361,665 19 - N Monster Well Go USA $25,603 2 $12,802 $25,603 1 - (-) The Exorcist: Believer Universal $22,185 -83% 35 -260 $634 $65,532,035 8 - (-) After Death Angel Studios $19,267 -73% 40 -105 $482 $11,460,826 5 - (-) Barbie Warner Bros. $13,625 -33% 36 -22 $378 $636,188,142 19 - (-) The Persian Version Sony Picture… $8,947 -49% 17 -17 $526 $547,556 6 - N Menus-Plaisirs Les Troisgros Zipporah $6,500 1 $6,500 $8,500 1 - (-) Peeping Tom Rialto Pictures $6,126 1 $6,126 $90,083 1,295 - (-) The Pot au Feu Mongrel Media $5,902 -59% 9 -3 $656 $114,357 3 - (-) Orlando, My Political Biography Janus Films $5,879 -16% 6 -1 $980 $27,860 3 - (-) The Disappearance of Shere Hite IFC Films $2,327 -85% 2 n/c $1,164 $20,610 2 - (-) It’s A Wonderful Knife RLJ Entertai… $2,269 -90% 5 -236 $454 $811,307 3 - (-) Four Daughters Kino Lorber $1,935 -21% 6 -25 $323 $36,344 5 - (-) Common Ground Area 23a $1,809 -80% 2 -2 $905 $215,815 9 - (-) The Marsh King’s Daughter Roadside Att… $1,763 -88% 8 -33 $220 $1,788,180 4 - (-) Cat Person Rialto Pictures $1,660 +33% 3 n/c $553 $55,548 8 - (-) Scrapper Kino Lorber $1,286 2 $643 $210,936 14 - (-) My Sailor, My Love Music Box Films $1,173 1 $1,173 $87,210 10 - (-) Black God, White Devil Janus Films $1,032 -68% 2 +1 $516 $6,818 2,723 - (-) Strange Way of Life Sony Picture… $1,020 -35% 4 n/c $255 $501,081 8 - (-) You’re All Gonna Die Indican Pict… $1,002 1 $1,002 $1,002 2 - (-) Story Ave Kino Lorber $857 +333% 1 n/c $857 $59,932 9 - (-) Fremont Music Box Films $725 2 $363 $268,300 14 - (-) Carlos Sony Picture… $640 +433% 2 -1 $320 $431,374 9 - (-) Creation of the Gods I: Kingdom of Storms Well Go USA $579 1 $579 $1,706,355 10 - (-) Your Lucky Day Well Go USA $198 1 $198 $18,232 3 - (-) Camp Hideout Roadside Att… $108 -52% 1 n/c $108 $1,125,010 11 - (-) Sound of Freedom Angel Studios $32 -78% 1 n/c $32 $184,174,617 21 47 $116,054,522 -
2 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:
Navigating their website is a little difficult, but it seems that they are doing the “pay it forward” thing for The Shift, and when you click the link to pay it forward for this film, that’s when it takes you to the tracker that shows 120 000 tickets so far. So I think that is like SOF, where those can be redeemed by others. But also people might buy tickets directly themselves. I’m seeing quite a few sold out showings in some places for Friday - though definitely at the smaller screens that theatres have.
RT describes this as a modern retelling of the story of “Job” from the Bible.
Interested to see where this one goes.
im sure theatres will appreciate any extra patrons. This weekend will have an eclectic mix of causal moviegoers, Beyoncé fans, Godzilla fans. The Shift pulling in some of that SOF crowd and and Boy and the Heron pulling in some more niche viewers.
And with Silent Night getting good reviews so far, this is going to be an unusually strong post Thanksgiving weekend.
I think the 120,000 is all the tickets sold, not just pay it forward ones...although I don't know if it counts any tickets outside of its own site and/or Atom (where its site directs you if you try to buy). Being a film that probably sells very well in smaller, middle America chains, this might matter more for trying to project the weekend.
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5 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:
Even someone as ever-negative as you can't possibly seriously say Kang Dynasty will be under The Marvels
Well, is Jonathan Majors still starring as Kang? If so, anything at all is possible for the movie - see this summer's The Flash...
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On 11/26/2023 at 8:52 AM, SpiderByte said:
I really don't think the idea that audiences hates supeheroes lines up with stuff like Guardians The Boys, Invincible, Gen V etc. Loki also was just very well received with its series finale. I think it's just more choosy.
But, almost all the series you mentioned above are "free" - I love free superhero stuff and end up watching all of it eventually (although I haven't gotten to Invincible and Gen V yet)....if you want me to pay $20/ticket or about $100 for my family to see in theater...well, at this point, it's mostly a "pass" unless I think it's gonna be amazing...
This year, I watched Spidey and Shazam 2 in theater (and Shazam was on cheap day) - that's it. But, I've seen all the supers, except The Marvels.
And I think I'm more the norm GA "invested" supers viewer...
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11 minutes ago, Bob Train said:
The MCU is doomed.
Season 2 was the much better written Loki season - it made season 1 and its ending MUCH better. And I see from Deadline, he wrote season 1, and not season 2?
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37 minutes ago, YachtyLogs said:
Migration still continues its 0 sale streak on T-24. Very excited for the first sale to eventually occur. Ngl I'm losing just a little bit of the motivation because of how slow sales are for all three movies I'm tracking along with how long it takes to check the three movies.
If you are getting demotivated, check Christmas Day. If your movies don't have sales on Dec 25/26, the biggest movie going days of the year yet, then it's time to totally panic and abandon ship:).
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6 hours ago, JustLurking said:
Never agreed with the first Knives Out being better. It is a fun film and all but I had the culprit and how he did it figured out within like 15-20 minutes. The second one is still reasonably obvious but there are more attempts at misdirection.
Still, both are good as far as I'm concerned.
See, I solved the 2nd right away, and then wondered if I really saw it right...
But even solving it so soon, the watch was enjoyable on how they got to the finish...
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FYI for openers and holdovers this week..,
My 14 has already reserved 6 screens for 5 new openers, so it's gonna be a tight week for holdovers (assuming none of the new films get any more screens). As for the openers and their presale sets...
Beyonce - 2 screens (1 PLF / 1 reg)
Godzilla - 1 screen
Silent Night - 1 screen
Shift - 1 screen
Animal - 1 screen (early booked, so probably a bigger foreign film than normal)
So, 8 screens left, assuming nothing opening gets any more showings.
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8 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:
Hunger Games has a lower CinemaScore than Wish?!?
Cinescore comes from a selected group of cities on a selected day. It very rarely will show GA thoughts, particularly in suburban and rural locales. So, it's a data point for movie goer thoughts, but I always think a better one is verified audience RT reviews after the 2nd weekend. How many folks hate something or love something so much to review it, and then what the reviews are.
As Charlie has said, always look at the not-liked part of the score. The difference between Wish - 81%, so 19% of the audience dislike the movie enough to say so and HG BOSS - 90%, so 10% of the audience dislike enough to say so - means Wish has almost DOUBLE the number of unsatisfied movie goers as a percent so far (which is really bad in a 1st weekend for a brand movie, b/c usually you overwhelmingly get brand fans the 1st weekend, so middling movies tend to sink in weekend 2 and beyond)...
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2 hours ago, Kon said:
Honestly, I don't think so much people will see The Marvels in Disney+. I know there are people who wait for Disney+, but there seems to be a real lack of interest on that movie.
It was expected Disney+ will be profitable in 2024. Will this be achieved? Maybe.
I'll watch it on D+...not when it drops, but in the doldrums on April/May when nothing else new is around for streaming b/c of the strikes...I assume that will be how and when most Marvel fans eventually watch it...
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7 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:
If Disney wants another bomb, let them release another loser. No one one going to watch it though.
Eternals 2 = Nut Job Never Again, a sequel doomed at the concept stage no matter what the concept is, b/c the audience already rejected the original material and characters.
I mean, MCU was still riding high at Eternals release...and it thudded. So, there can't even be superhero fatigue to blame for that one.
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27 minutes ago, Flip said:
HG can probably hit 140m, only November release above 100m
Trolls 3 will also probably clear $100M...so, 2 releases might get over $100M...
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17 minutes ago, Borobudur said:
Can't believe we lose two "supposed-locked" 100m movie in November coming from same studio. Luckily Trolls 3 is there to help the situation, I thought that movie will have a hard time going to 100m for releasing this close to WIsh. Now I know why they never take Disney seriously.
Universal's animation studios can no longer be doubted - they have taken over the top GA audience spot for the 2020s.
Now, that overall GA audience level is lower than the 2010s, but we've discussed why ad nauseum. Suffice it to say, it's now other studios who will now have to move for Universal's animated products, not vice versa.
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8 minutes ago, Brainbug said:
I dont think the problem is that people have issues with female characters that are involved in a romantic (sub)plot.
I think the issue is that people dont like badly written and bland female characters like the ones we see so often in many (wannabe) blockbuster movies.
People don't want robots - strong, emotionless, relationship free ninja superheroes.
If you are perfect, you are uninteresting. No story will work well with you b/c where will the conflict be?
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Major sports are also struggling to get under 18s on board. It's too expensive to go to games, and too boring to watch.
So, I completely love the NFL's move to have kidcasts starting last year on Nickelodeon and continuing this year on Disney and again on Nickelodeon, to include a Christmas day game and the Super Bowl (yes, I'll be watching a kid cast Superbowl b/c my kid has now become an NFL fanatic - and watches normal casts, but he's also gonna love the Nick version since he's an uber Spongebob fan)...something to be "entry" for kids to the sports.
The summer movie series does work in part to get kids to theaters. Disney does not support those series AT ALL, so it's no surprise that right now, you see Universal (which sponsors the Cinemark series) and other animators (who at least provide movies and trailers for their showings) still have some spark in their animateds b/c they spend months getting kids in front of their trailers - but even then, that only goes so far b/c $2 movies are different that $15-20/movies.
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29 minutes ago, Arlborn said:
I guess people are just choosing to stay home instead of going to the movie theater with their kids. That sucks, honestly.
No, but he would’ve deserved it.
It's too darn expensive. I've said that over and over.
I've written about the trampoline park deal.
Now, local ice skating is just $9 ($5 to go and $4 to get skates). My daughter is now doing that every week.
When movies are $15-$20, and mom got new streaming (Peacock and Max have returned - spouse wanted Max, and Disney/Hulu were re-upped with Amazon and Netflix) on Black Friday, why not watch what's there. It was $20 for Peacock's year, $18 for Max's 6 months and it could have been $36 for Hulu AND Disney's year (I paid more, but that's on me) - if you got all 3 new deals, you paid $74 for all that streaming, which is about the cost to take a family of 4 to a non-discounted holiday movie showing, WITHOUT the popcorn.
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4 hours ago, CJohn said:
Universal must have insiders at Disney. They knew Wish was this massive dud. They had to know.
What gets me is that Disney didn't know they had a dud.
Universal had Trolls advertised to kids all through the summer at $2 kid summer movies - they went for the market they wanted and have now gotten it - kids and families.
They wanted the holiday b/c they knew it would work for their movie...and they were right.
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8 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:
2019 had six Disney films hit over 400 domsetic. The fall of the mouse house is an asteroid to the global box office.
I think they need a change in all leadership.
They have permanently lost theatrical audience. I don't think that's in doubt anymore. And like someone said in the "thousand cuts" discussion, they did it in a bunch of ways in a rapid spiral since 2020. And, regardless of what way mattered most, they did it and are suffering enormously in this business arm. And I can't see audiences returning in the 2019 and before way without a complete corporate personnel change from top to bottom. Because without that overhaul, the direction doesn't change, so it keeps going down.
Will they have a random hit here or there if they don't change - sure (I mean, I have Inside Out 2 in my Top 2 for next year). But not a hit like they used to, especially in INT numbers, where they have just been absolutely abandoned by audiences.
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8 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:
Just Wish and it seem to finish almost on par with Encanto opening wednesday. Actually fewer tickets but ATP is higher 2 years later and so its almost on par. So seeing 6m true wednesday and 8.3m with previews. Just meh considering where the presales were. Way worse walkups than Trolls last week. I think meh reviews had definite impact for sure.
No Disney movie walks up as well as similar type non-Disney movies anymore. It's best to compare Disney type to Disney type vs non-Disney to Disney.
Thanksgiving 5-days Weekend thread | BOSS: 42.2m, Napoleon: 32.75m, Wish: 31.6m, Trolls: 25.6m, Thanksgiving: 10.9m
in Numbers and Data
Posted · Edited by TwoMisfits
Mine's gonna be a finish between high teens and low 20s...Shawn's is above that, but he hasn't done his weekend pinpoint yet...
Edit to Add: As for why, I see it as very walkup and very GA unfriendly. Sky high ticket price (over Taylor's) that broke $20 starting barrier, not an actual concert film but a documentary so it looks like snoozeville if you aren't REALLY into Beyonce and her career (so uber-fans really won't be able to talk friends and friends into it), and higher age of fan who is less likely a movie goer...