TwoMisfits
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Posts posted by TwoMisfits
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Prediction #7 Snatched DOM < $50M Total. Preview looks like awful...and there are only so many fans of the 2 leads that will show up no matter the movie.
And b/c I've got another lined up:)...
Prediction #8 Pirates 5 DOM < Baywatch DOM (and 8a - Pirates OW DOM < Baywatch OW DOM) - I have that little faith in a #5 sequel and that much faith that fans may just want something really silly Memorial Day weekend (especially since Snatched will have crashed and burned) - it's a time to lighten up and party at the beach/pools, and I think Baywatch couldn't have a better timed release. It worked for the Hangover sequels and they weren't any good...
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1 minute ago, YourMother said:
Guessing either Justice League or Spider Man Homecoming?
Yup, and why pick b/c it could be either til we know which one is any good:)...I'm leaning Justice League to make up for Coco not hitting its desired male audience and it becoming the Thanksgiving movie and carrying through as a family Xmas movie...but it could as easily be Spidey b/c he's one of the most popular characters and if it's finally a good Spidey movie, it will be unstoppable:)...
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#6 Prediction: Top supers movie DOM and WW for the year is NOT Disney's...
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7 hours ago, MCKillswitch123 said:
Top 5 of the year, or all time? Just wanna know.
Coco will not make Top 5 DOM for the YEAR. Some mix of Lego (both movies), DM3, Cars 3, Emoji, Captain Underpants, and either Boss Baby/The Star/Smurfs will all top it:)...
Now, this may be a little negative for Coco, but someone wanted bold, and I can see this happening for all the reasons I said before:)...
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Prediction #5 (A bolder one for DMan7) - Coco will not make the top 5 for animated films DOM Box Office. I don't care how well Disney advertises this one:)...
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4th prediction - Coco < $200M DOM over its run. Strange opening date when Day of the Dead will have passed weeks before, repetitive "music saves all" plot, human animated character, boy character when huge supers movie opens 5 days before, etc.
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3rd prediction - No matter how good they are, all 5 major releases on Dec 22nd (Jumanji World, Pitch Perfect 3, Ferdinand, Downsizing, the Six Million Dollar Man) will make less than $200M DOM for their full BO runs. Star Wars 8 will just eat the entire Domestic BO, like it did for Star Wars 7. Now, if any move dates, they fall out of the prediction, b/c it's based on Star 8 just taking all the Christmas Family BO dollar.
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I'm tempted to make my #2 prediction that The Star will beat Coco DOM...
But I think that might be a bridge to far until I see a trailer for The Star (wasn't impressed with Coco, since I've already seen Kubo this year and Rock Dog is coming - only so many "must play music" animated movies I can handle:)...
It might be better to say (if this is any good), I think The Star will be $100M+ DOM...
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14 minutes ago, Frozen said:
She had better, since this is her last ever chance. I hope she has a bigger role in this movie and they weren't saving that for the final one.
Not sure you want to know what the original draft was then...I'm wondering if they are gonna try to rewrite/reshoot this somehow, b/c I think fans will now hate it...SPOILER WARNING (Maybe??)
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Disney/Pixar will not win the top DOM animated movie title this year...I gotta think on my other 9:)...
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I'm most confident about Hidden Figures. With 2300 screens, I think this opens like Arrival with a little less due to already being open in a few places. I have much less confidence on the other 2 (although another bad sequel just doesn't seem like it will sell and the kid/monster movie seems ill-timed with Sing and even Moana still grooving at the Box Office - if it released another time, I could see a higher open, but with only 1800 rumored screens or so, it's gonna struggle, although I'm a little more optimistic than previous posters - if it gets less screens, I'd drop my estimate)...
UPDATE 1/4: Now only 1500 screens for Monster Calls, so 1/6 less than originally planned...gotta drop my estimate by the same %...
Hidden Figures $22.5M
Underworld $12M
Monster Calls (old $5.9M) - NEW $4.9M
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50 minutes ago, JB33 said:
It's going to be interesting to see what happens in 2018. If I'm Disney, I'm putting Han Solo in that mid-December slot regardless of what happens with Avatar 2. They're better off to let Avengers: Infinity War wreak havoc in May and early June than have two of their own tentpoles cannibalizing each other.
Your wish may be Disney's command - http://makingstarwars.net/2017/01/rumor-could-the-untitled-star-wars-han-solo-stand-alone-see-a-december-13th-2018-release-date/
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6 minutes ago, That One Guy said:
Ice Age is the exception, not the rule.
Unless it's the new rule:)...there was a rule about sequels of hits being no-brainers before 2016, too (I heard about this rule all the time on another game)...and then we had Zoolander 2, Alice 2, Independence Day 2, TMNT 2, Huntsman 2, My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2, Bad Santa 2, etc...
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16 minutes ago, miketheavenger said:
Pirates franchise is a true juggernaut overseas. The last one made over 800m. Even with bad exchange rates, I can't see sub-500m OS. Probably 600m+.
It's been 6 years since the last one...Ice Age could tell you that the 4th installment doesn't indicate what the 5th installment will make, even OS...
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16 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:
May 26: Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales: Some people are underestimating this film. When the trailer premiered a few months ago, it generated a lot of buzz online. The franchise’s quality has been very spotty, but early word is saying that the fifth installment is up there with Curse of the Black Pearl in quality. Disney knows how to market a movie, and they won’t let the 320M spent on making this film go to waste. Add in the return of Orlando Bloom, and this could be a surprise hit with proper marketing. 80/220 (2.75x)
If they spent $320M, ummm, why would $220M DOM make them a hit? Even if they almost double that number WW and hit say $600M total, they are probably looking at just making their investment back...that's not my definition of a "hit"...
Although, $320M for a FIFTH movie in a sequence?? Who, on Earth, greenlit all that budget and didn't just shut this down $200M ago?
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At Home: Mr. Church (On Netflix) BO $685K Domestic
In Theaters: Kubo
Both of these movies should have done better - I actually enjoyed both a lot...
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5 minutes ago, terrestrial said:
Then you are prepared for the crazyness a big release can bring with itself I guess
But just as fast it can go very silent, if nothing interesting is happening with the BOs during the... low months... But maybe a good time to get to know the members here a bit, more time to discuss...
Have a lot of fun!
I love to discuss - I played another Hollywood game for the last few years, so I have the hang of both predicting and being totally right and totally wrong:). You get to be both a lot!
Like, for this movie, if it wasn't St Patrick's Day and March Madness weekend and a female-skewing movie, I definitely think it would be way higher. But (being a woman), I know we don't always go out opening weekend (I've gotten burned with sleeper movies I knew would be hits, but which took longer to show it, like Bad Moms, this year). Trying to price that in for this one.
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41 minutes ago, terrestrial said:
Hello, at first
to the forum.
OD is nowadays previews and Friday's (if Friday is the 1st official day in release), that started during 2011.
I wrote you into the list wit;
OW = $125.1m (previews $11m/OD $43m) if that is not what you meant please let me know. You have time, the last day is in March '17, see first post.
Have a lot of fun here!
Yes, that's what I meant - and thanks for the well-wishes:). I've been lurking a few months here, and it being New Year, it seemed the perfect day to join and contribute to these boards:).
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$125.1M
Preview - $11.0M
OD - $32.0M + $11.0M previews = $43.0M
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to the forum.
Your 10 Bold 2017 Predictions
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
I agree - R rated female comedies can work - I had Bad Moms as my summer sleeper last year on another game...and I was the only one. That one felt really good when it exceeded practically everyone's expectations but mine:).
But this comedy looks BAD!:) It looks like it's forcing all the humor in the trailer and the movie concept - a kidnapping of American women overseas - is not one many people are gonna wanna laugh at. I mean, I give it one thing - it's original and I love original - but, it's still got to make me wanna laugh...