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Hilts

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Everything posted by Hilts

  1. Killers of the Flower Moon OK Thursday - showings starting 2.30pm Day Theatres Showings Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold Growth T-14 21 82 81 1,431 15,266 9.37% 6.00% T-13 21 82 114 1,545 15,266 10.12% 7.97% T-12 21 82 69 1,614 15,266 10.57% 4.47% T-11 21 82 60 1,674 15,266 10.97% 3.72% T-10 21 82 137 1,811 15,266 11.86% 8.18% MTC1 8 32 +61 792 5,897 13.43% 8.34% MTC2 4 18 +29 345 3,132 11.02% 9.18% MTC3 3 18 +26 470 3,798 12.37% 5.86% Other 6 14 +21 204 2,439 8.36% 11.48% Comps Oppenheimer 1.518x = $15.94m Barbie 0.793x = $17.60m Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One 2.411x = $21.22m Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny 1.757x = $18.44m Sound of Freedom 1.306x = $6.79m Great day. Unless I have time I will probably swap this one out for the Marvels from tomorrow and bring back in once Taylor is out.
  2. Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour OK Friday - showings starting 6pm Day Theatres Showings Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold Growth T-8 24 185 54 12,407 31,189 39.78% 0.44% T-7 24 185 104 12,511 31,189 40.11% 0.84% T-6 24 185 69 12,580 31,228 40.28% 0.55% T-5 24 185 70 12,650 31,228 40.51% 0.56% T-4 24 185 122 12,772 31,228 40.90% 0.96% MTC1 7 67 +53 7,149 11,518 62.07% 0.75% MTC2 4 41 +22 1,989 6,420 30.98% 1.12% MTC3 3 34 +14 2,298 6,396 35.93% 0.61% Other 10 43 +33 1,336 6,894 19.38% 2.53% T-0 Comps Raw ATP adj* Barbie 1.292x = $27.26m $40.89m Oppenheimer 2.623x = $27.54m $41.31m Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny 4.235x = $30.49m $45.74m T-4 Comp Raw ATP adj* Barbie (EA) 18.116x = $19.93m $29.89m *+50% Better day. Could this finally be the start of the ramp up.
  3. Random question which may have minimal impact on box office and sorry if it's already been mentioned/discussed to death. Any thoughts on RT score here? Or any embargo dates? Not really sure how reviewing this type of movie works and if there are special features or new content that would even warrant an embargo. Had a look at a few prior concert movies just now and to my (perhaps naïve) surprise all had fresh scores, except the Jonas Brothers... Just thinking aloud a red tomato may help walkups a bit for any non-swifties still on the fence but appreciate given the genre it would probably not make much difference ultimately.
  4. Five Nights at Freddy's OK Thursday - showings starting 2pm Day Theatres Showings Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold Growth T-22 16 67 103 577 11,157 5.17% 21.73% T-21 16 67 73 650 11,157 5.83% 12.65% T-20 16 72 50 700 11,880 5.89% 7.69% T-19 19 83 67 767 13,196 5.81% 9.57% T-18 19 83 34 801 13,196 6.07% 4.43% MTC1 7 21 +25 372 2,213 16.81% 7.20% MTC2 4 29 +2 157 4,653 3.37% 1.29% MTC3 3 20 +2 208 4,277 4.86% 0.97% Other 5 13 +5 64 2,053 3.12% 8.47% Comps Asteroid City 13.131x = $14.44m Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One 1.679x = $14.78m Barbie 0.619x = $13.74m Haunted Mansion 7.853x = $24.34m Oppenheimer 1.055x = $11.08m Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny 1.028x = $7.40m Killers of the Flower Moon 0.764x
  5. Killers of the Flower Moon OK Thursday - showings starting 2.30pm Day Theatres Showings Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold Growth T-15 21 82 70 1,350 15,266 8.84% 5.47% T-14 21 82 81 1,431 15,266 9.37% 6.00% T-13 21 82 114 1,545 15,266 10.12% 7.97% T-12 21 82 69 1,614 15,266 10.57% 4.47% T-11 21 82 60 1,674 15,266 10.97% 3.72% MTC1 8 32 +22 731 5,897 12.40% 3.10% MTC2 4 18 +12 316 3,132 10.09% 3.95% MTC3 3 18 +11 444 3,798 11.69% 2.54% Other 6 14 +15 183 2,439 7.50% 8.93% Comps Oppenheimer 1.501x = $15.76m Barbie 0.809x = $17.95m Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One 2.322x = $20.43m Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny 1.682x = $12.11m Sound of Freedom 1.280x = $6.66m
  6. Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour OK Friday - showings starting 6pm Day Theatres Showings Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold Growth T-9 24 185 355 12,353 31,189 39.61% 2.96% T-8 24 185 54 12,407 31,189 39.78% 0.44% T-7 24 185 104 12,511 31,189 40.11% 0.84% T-6 24 185 69 12,580 31,228 40.28% 0.55% T-5 24 185 70 12,650 31,228 40.51% 0.56% MTC1 7 67 +29 7,096 11,518 61.61% 0.41% MTC2 4 41 +7 1,967 6,420 30.64% 0.36% MTC3 3 34 +16 2,284 6,396 35.71% 0.71% Other 10 43 +18 1,303 6,894 18.90% 1.40% T-0 Comps Raw ATP adj* Barbie 1.279x = $27.00m $40.49m Oppenheimer 2.598x = $27.28m $40.92m Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny 4.194x = $30.20m $45.30m T-5 Comp Raw ATP adj* Barbie (EA) 17.969x = $19.77m $29.65m
  7. Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé OK Thursday - showings starting 7pm Day Theatres Showings Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold Growth T-59 17 56 78 303 12,333 2.46% 34.67% T-58 17 57 36 339 12,432 2.73% 11.88% T-57 17 57 22 361 12,432 2.90% 6.49% T-56 17 57 10 371 12,432 2.98% 2.77% T-55 17 58 9 380 12,530 3.03% 2.43% MTC1 7 19 +8 270 3,910 6.91% 3.05% MTC2 4 21 0 31 3,975 0.78% 0.00% MTC3 3 14 +1 44 3,518 1.25% 2.33% Other 3 4 0 35 1,127 3.11% 0.00% Day 1 Comp Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour 0.062x Friday (+5 days of sales) 131 showings (+9) 295 total sold (+128) 77.6% of Thursday (previously 74.2%)
  8. Five Nights at Freddy's OK Thursday - showings starting 2pm Day Theatres Showings Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold Growth T-23 16 64 123 474 10,818 4.38% 35.04% T-22 16 67 103 577 11,157 5.17% 21.73% T-21 16 67 73 650 11,157 5.83% 12.65% T-20 16 72 50 700 11,880 5.89% 7.69% T-19 19 83 67 767 13,196 5.81% 9.57% MTC1 7 21 +35 347 2,213 15.68% 11.22% MTC2 4 29 +16 155 4,653 3.33% 11.51% MTC3 3 20 +10 206 4,277 4.82% 5.10% Other 5 13 +6 59 2,053 2.87% 11.32% Comps Asteroid City 14.204x = $15.62m Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One 1.813x = $15.96m Barbie 0.617x = $13.70m Haunted Mansion 7.747x = $24.02m Oppenheimer 1.061x = $11.14m Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny 1.030x = $7.41m Killers of the Flower Moon 0.803x Pretty even sales numbers from each pull today.
  9. Killers of the Flower Moon OK Thursday - showings starting 2.30pm Day Theatres Showings Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold Growth T-16 21 82 162 1,280 15,266 8.38% 14.49% T-15 21 82 70 1,350 15,266 8.84% 5.47% T-14 21 82 81 1,431 15,266 9.37% 6.00% T-13 21 82 114 1,545 15,266 10.12% 7.97% T-12 21 82 69 1,614 15,266 10.57% 4.47% MTC1 8 32 +42 709 5,897 12.02% 6.30% MTC2 4 18 +6 304 3,132 9.71% 2.01% MTC3 3 18 +15 433 3,798 11.40% 3.59% Other 6 14 +6 168 2,439 6.89% 3.70% Comps Oppenheimer 1.543x = $16.20m Barbie 0.856x = $19.00m Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One 2.388x = $21.01m Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny 1.671x = $12.03m Sound of Freedom 1.341x = $6.97m
  10. Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour OK Friday - showings starting 6pm Day Theatres Showings Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold Growth T-10 20 166 87 11,998 29,294 40.96% 0.73% T-9 24 185 355 12,353 31,189 39.61% 2.96% T-8 24 185 54 12,407 31,189 39.78% 0.44% T-7 24 185 104 12,511 31,189 40.11% 0.84% T-6 24 185 69 12,580 31,228 40.28% 0.55% MTC1 7 67 +26 7,067 11,518 61.36% 0.37% MTC2 4 41 +5 1,960 6,420 30.53% 0.26% MTC3 3 34 +16 2,268 6,396 35.46% 0.71% Other 10 43 +22 1,285 6,894 18.64% 1.74% T-0 Comps Raw ATP adj* Barbie 1.272x = $26.85m $40.27m Oppenheimer 2.584x = $27.13m $40.69m Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny 4.171x = $30.03m $45.05m T-6 Comp Raw ATP adj* Barbie (EA) 18.023x = $19.83m $29.74m Saturday (+6 days of sales) 370 showings 7,586 total sold (+665) 60.3% of Friday (previously 58.7%)
  11. Some exorcistical comps: EXORCIST 3, THE (1990) EXORCIST: THE BEGINNING (2004) EXORCISM OF EMILY ROSE, THE (2005) LAST EXORCISM, THE (2010) RITE, THE (2011) DEVIL INSIDE, THE (2012) POSSESSION, THE (2012) LAST EXORCISM PART II, THE (2013) DELIVER US FROM EVIL (2014) PREY FOR THE DEVIL (2022) POPE'S EXORCIST, THE (2023)
  12. Five Nights at Freddy's OK Thursday - showings starting 2pm Day Theatres Showings Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold Growth T-24 16 64 156 351 10,818 3.24% 80.00% T-23 16 64 123 474 10,818 4.38% 35.04% T-22 16 67 103 577 11,157 5.17% 21.73% T-21 16 67 73 650 11,157 5.83% 12.65% T-20 16 72 50 700 11,880 5.89% 7.69% MTC1 7 21 +19 312 2,213 14.10% MTC2 4 26 +6 139 4,227 3.29% MTC3 3 20 +22 196 4,277 4.58% Other 2 5 +3 53 1,163 4.56% Comps Asteroid City 14.000x = $15.40m Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One 1.966x = $17.30m Barbie 0.607x = $13.47m Haunted Mansion 7.292x = $22.60m Oppenheimer 1.014x = $10.65m Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny 0.975x = $7.02m Killers of the Flower Moon 0.831x Similar story to yesterday. MTC2 added a few shows. Removed Exorcist comp as now we know the number it is spitting out a ridiculous figure. May add it back later once it has more activity as the longer presale window had quite a lull around this time for about a week.
  13. Killers of the Flower Moon OK Thursday - showings starting 2.30pm Day Theatres Showings Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold Growth T-17 21 82 70 1,118 15,266 7.32% 6.68% T-16 21 82 162 1,280 15,266 8.38% 14.49% T-15 21 82 70 1,350 15,266 8.84% 5.47% T-14 21 82 81 1,431 15,266 9.37% 6.00% T-13 21 82 114 1,545 15,266 10.12% 7.97% MTC1 8 32 +67 667 5,897 11.31% MTC2 4 18 +5 298 3,132 9.51% MTC3 3 18 +31 418 3,798 11.01% Other 6 14 +11 162 2,439 6.64% Comps Oppenheimer 1.601x = $16.81m Barbie 0.858x = $19.05m Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One 2.348x = $20.66m Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny 1.660x = $11.95m Sound of Freedom 1.402x = $7.29m And back to beating all comps again. Reminder for newcomers - major overindex here. Reason I am keeping SoF is that also overperformed here (mostly due to the pay-it-forward I assume) so may be a reasonable indicator, maybe not. That was a Tuesday (or Monday?) opening so bear that in mind. Starts to pick up tomorrow and then a bigger ramp up from T-7 onward so that may be an interesting comparison.
  14. Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour OK Friday - showings starting 6pm Day Theatres Showings Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold Growth T-11 20 164 118 11,911 29,080 40.96% 1.00% T-10 20 166 87 11,998 29,294 40.96% 0.73% T-9 24 185 355 12,353 31,189 39.61% 2.96% T-8 24 185 54 12,407 31,189 39.78% 0.44% T-7 24 185 104 12,511 31,189 40.11% 0.84% MTC1 7 67 +44 7,041 11,518 61.13% MTC2 4 41 +12 1,955 6,420 30.45% MTC3 3 34 +31 2,252 6,396 35.21% Other 10 43 +17 1,263 6,855 18.42% T-0 Comps Raw ATP adj* Barbie 1.265x = $26.70m $40.05m Oppenheimer 2.570x = $26.98m $40.47m Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny 4.148x = $29.87m $44.80m T-7 Comp Raw ATP adj* Barbie (EA) 18.238x = $20.06m $30.09m *+50% Alright picked back up again a little today.
  15. I will take the 5% off here. Lessons learned: Demeter does not seem to be a good horror comp for me. Also be more selective on comps. Insidious and Nun were pretty much nailed on so this will add to my collection nicely. $30m OW is not over, does not take an outrageous multiplier to get there but let's see the FRI number. Negative WOM won't exactly help but may not be much of a hindrance either until after the weekend. I will happily eat my words though since I have gone under in the Derby 😉
  16. Without EA it is easily outpacing here, including EA seems to be a decent barometer at the moment considering how quickly those sold. I doubt it keeps up later in the run due to the Barbenheimer effect but it is pretty nuts we are asking this question at any stage!
  17. The Exorcist: Believer OK Thursday - showings starting 5pm Day Theatres Showings Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold Growth T-4 22 80 30 191 16,341 1.17% 18.63% T-3 22 80 39 230 16,341 1.41% 20.42% T-2 25 101 48 278 18,794 1.48% 20.87% T-1 25 107 66 344 19,512 1.76% 23.74% T-0 25 106 333 677 19,340 3.50% 96.80% MTC1 8 31 +95 253 6,037 4.19% MTC2 4 29 +85 129 5,265 2.45% MTC3 3 16 +100 205 3,338 6.14% Other 10 30 +53 90 4,700 1.91% Comps Haunted Mansion 0.702x = $2.18m A Haunting In Venice 1.680x = $2.02m Talk To Me 2.184x = $2.72m The Last Voyage of the Demeter 2.517x = $1.89m Insidious: The Red Door 0.555x = $2.78m The Nun II 0.929x = $2.88m The Creator 1.138x = $1.82m Saw X 1.190x = $2.38m If it does squeak to $3m I won't be shocked but my data does not quite support that. Pure horror comp average is $2.5m, it did have a decent final day but did not move the needle much so I will bump slightly my prediction to $2.7m. I am liking Friday numbers from @el sid though so can scrape over $30m OW. Reckon it may be a nailbiter/fudge.
  18. Five Nights at Freddy's OK Thursday - showings starting 2pm Day Theatres Showings Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold Growth T-25 15 61 195 195 10,575 1.84% - T-24 16 64 156 351 10,818 3.24% 80.00% T-23 16 64 123 474 10,818 4.38% 35.04% T-22 16 67 103 577 11,157 5.17% 21.73% T-21 16 67 73 650 11,157 5.83% 12.65% MTC1 7 21 +25 293 2,213 13.24% MTC2 4 21 +15 133 3,504 3.80% MTC3 3 20 +27 174 4,277 4.07% Other 2 5 +6 50 1,163 4.30% Comps Asteroid City 14.130x = $15.54m Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One 1.952x = $17.18m Barbie 0.600x = $13.31m Haunted Mansion 7.831x = $24.28m Oppenheimer 0.977x = $10.26m Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny 0.953x = $6.86m The Exorcist: Believer 14.444x Killers of the Flower Moon 0.895x Slowing down at pretty even pace but most comps still rising. No new shows added today.
  19. Killers of the Flower Moon OK Thursday - showings starting 2.30pm Day Theatres Showings Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold Growth T-18 21 82 93 1,048 15,266 6.86% 9.74% T-17 21 82 70 1,118 15,266 7.32% 6.68% T-16 21 82 162 1,280 15,266 8.38% 14.49% T-15 21 82 70 1,350 15,266 8.84% 5.47% T-14 21 82 81 1,431 15,266 9.37% 6.00% MTC1 8 32 +26 600 5,897 10.17% MTC2 4 18 +18 293 3,132 9.36% MTC3 3 18 +19 387 3,798 10.19% Other 6 14 +18 151 2,439 6.19% Comps Oppenheimer 1.573x = $16.51m Barbie 0.856x = $19.01m Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One 2.268x = $19.96m Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny 1.583x = $11.40m Sound of Freedom 1.389x = $7.22m Asteroid City 19.338x = $21.27m Still selling decently everywhere. Finally largely settled against comps. Actual accurate number is probably ~25% of these.
  20. Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour OK Friday - showings starting 6pm Day Theatres Showings Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold Growth T-12 20 163 73 11,793 28,984 40.69% 0.62% T-11 20 164 118 11,911 29,080 40.96% 1.00% T-10 20 166 87 11,998 29,294 40.96% 0.73% T-9 24 185 355 12,353 31,189 39.61% 2.96% T-8 24 185 54 12,407 31,189 39.78% 0.44% MTC1 7 67 +22 6,997 11,518 60.75% MTC2 4 41 0 1,943 6,420 30.26% MTC3 3 34 +20 2,221 6,396 34.72% Other 10 43 +12 1,246 6,855 18.18% T-0 Comps Raw ATP adj* Barbie 1.255x = $26.48m $39.72m Oppenheimer 2.548x = $26.76m $40.13m Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny 4.114x = $29.62m $44.43m T-8 Comp Raw ATP adj* Barbie (EA) 18.272x = $20.10m $30.15m *+50% Slightly slower day today. Added new sales split by chain plus daily growth.
  21. Sorry yeah realised my typo at the same time and edited my post - cheers. Less than Oppenheimer but not really sure of the lower bound yet as my data has not been especially helpful for that. Given the long runtime and outside of summer this should be strong on the weekend as opposed to the Thursday preview number, so hoping for a good multiplier. Been seeing around $30m-$40m as a good target for OW.
  22. Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé OK Thursday - showings starting 7pm Day Theatres Showings Sellouts Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold T-60 17 57 0 225 225 12,529 1.80% T-59 17 56 0 78 303 12,333 2.46% T-58 17 57 0 36 339 12,432 2.73% MTC1 7 18 0 245 3,812 6.43% MTC2 4 21 0 24 3,975 0.60% MTC3 3 14 0 40 3,518 1.14% Other 3 4 0 30 1,127 2.66% Day 1 Comp Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour 0.055x Similar story to FNAF, early signs of MTC1 overindex and lower than usual show count. Plenty of time to change that though.
  23. Welcome! Yes exactly, I should probably put a disclaimer on this particular track as it will definitely massively over-perform in the region given the setting. For this movie I'd definitely pay more attention to the other trackers here as this will not be beating Oppenheimer or doing $15m in previews (as much as I would like) 🙂 we are still a couple weeks out and with the long run time and lack of direct comps it's still difficult to nail down. But my guess is somewhere down the middle. I may add some ad-hoc adjusted comps at some point to get this to a more realistic level. Or I might just stop posting this one and just track on the side to avoid confusion. Depends how much time I have available!
  24. Five Nights at Freddy's OK Thursday - showings starting 2pm Day Theatres Showings Sellouts Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold T-25 15 61 0 195 195 10,575 1.84% T-24 16 64 0 156 351 10,818 3.24% T-23 16 64 0 123 474 10,818 4.38% T-22 16 67 0 103 577 11,157 5.17% MTC1 7 21 0 268 2,213 12.11% MTC2 4 21 0 118 3,504 3.37% MTC3 3 20 0 147 4,277 3.44% Other 2 5 0 44 1,163 3.78% Comps Asteroid City 14.425x = $15.87m Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One 1.943x = $17.10m Barbie 0.571x = $12.68m Haunted Mansion 7.213x = $22.36m Oppenheimer 0.878x = $9.22m Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny 0.880x = $6.33m The Exorcist: Believer 12.822x Killers of the Flower Moon 0.897x Another strong day increasing on most comps inc Barbie+EA. Can confirm what @keysersoze123 is seeing though, MTC1 with really low show count but selling well here. Feel like maybe they missed a trick here by not expanding sooner.
  25. Killers of the Flower Moon OK Thursday - showings starting 2.30pm Day Theatres Showings Sellouts Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold T-19 21 82 0 113 955 15,266 6.26% T-18 21 82 0 93 1,048 15,266 6.86% T-17 21 82 0 70 1,118 15,266 7.32% T-16 21 82 0 162 1,280 15,266 8.38% T-15 21 82 0 70 1,350 15,266 8.84% MTC1 8 32 0 574 5,897 9.73% MTC2 4 18 0 275 3,132 8.78% MTC3 3 18 0 368 3,798 9.69% Other 6 14 0 133 2,439 5.45% Comps Oppenheimer 1.577x = $16.56m Barbie 0.871x = $19.34m Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One 2.364x = $20.81m Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny 1.554x = $11.19m Sound of Freedom 1.408x = $7.32m Asteroid City 19.014x = $20.92m
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