Mr Impossible
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Posts posted by Mr Impossible
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Looks like a 48-54% drop for Blade Runner 2nd weekend.
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Honestly looks like this movie could be really fun especially wasted or high. You also can't go wrong with Gerard Butler, my favorite B movie actor.
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10 minutes ago, a2knet said:
If BR2049 follows Girl on the Train on Thursday and FSS:
2.13m -13.6%
4.52m +112.5%
5.89m +30.4%
3.65m -38% [14.06m / -57%]
But GotT has done better on Mon, Tue and Wed and could continue that stronger trend:
-46.0%, -4.5%, -27.5% GotT
-49.5%, -20.4%, -30.5% BR2049
They feel completely different from each other. 2 different audiences.
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10 minutes ago, Captain Craig said:
I'm hoping that BR2049 can still manage a $15-16m second weekend and push for a $100m domestic run.
I think it will. If it follows Kingsman 2 it would do $18.8M but I'm not holding my breath lol.
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3 minutes ago, Valonqar said:
How mighty have fallen, that BR2049 boxoffice is now compared to Drekula Untold. Sorry, that cracked me up.
That’s the world we live in.
I did enjoy Dracula Untold as a guilty pleasure tbh.
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If it follows Dracula Untold:
Thur - $2.26M
Fri - $5.17M
Sat - $7.62M
Sun - $4.77M ($17.56M Weekend)
Just an example.
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Just saw it for the third time. Had to make sure that Wednesday drop isn’t too harsh.
Yea this is a masterpiece!
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1 hour ago, narniadis said:
It would need to increase by numbers that are not normal in order to get less than a 55% drop... Not sure why that's so hard to understand considering it's not emotions at play but hard data.... with a 30% dip today and a 10% dip on Thursday it would need 150% just to hit 5.6m on Friday and I highly doubt it goes that high for its increase. And as Ak2net continues to point out the Sunday to Sunday drop will be brutal.
Kingsman 2 increased 150% in its 2nd Friday.
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5 minutes ago, a2knet said:
Played around with what you suggested
, and gave it a better True Friday hold than that movie [-55% vs -62%] and observed that it leads to a worse Full Friday hold [-69% vs -66%].
Also, regarding this,
forgot to mention: Discount Tuesdays in 2014 were much smaller than 2017. 3 Years is HUGE when it comes to growth of discount Tuesdays.
Keep an eye on the Wed drop. DU dropped -28%. You could be right and BR2049 could match that or do better, but I suspect BR2049 will drop 33-34% on Wed.
I didn't know discount Tuesday has grown, I've been using it for years always seen the same amount of people. Interesting.
Dracula Untold had a 67% drop in its Friday to Friday. Blade Runner has held better on Monday not just Tuesday than it and both were released on Columbus Day weekends.
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9 minutes ago, John Marston said:
Blade Runner got fucked in China
Kingsman 2 - Oct.20
Geostorm - Oct.27
Blade Runner 2049 - Oct.27
Thor 3 - Nov.3
Orient Express - Nov.10
Justice League - Nov.17
Could still do Valerian #s in China. Haven't Marvel movies been under performing there, Thor 2 only did $55M there.
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4 minutes ago, a2knet said:
DU's OD was 1.3 previews + 7.6 true Friday. The 2nd Friday was 2.9, -62% from true Friday and -66% from full Friday.
BR49's OD is 4.0 previews + 8.6 true Friday. So even if it holds better from true Friday and falls -55% to 3.85, then the Fri-Fri drop is -69%, more than DU.
So due to that huge preview front-loading, even doing better than DU sets it behind. It starts of at ~70% Fri-Fri decline, followed by a better Sat-Sat hold but a worse Sun-Sun hold (guaranteed due 1st Sunday being inflated and falling only 21% thanks to Columbus Day Monday). Can't see how it evades a 60% 2nd weekend drop.
So you’re predicting it to have a worse Friday than its Monday? I don’t buy that even for Colombus Day...
I think you’re doing math that’s irrelevant...
Right now to me it’s looking like it’s heading towards 52-54% drop. Could be higher or lower depending on Friday increase or if it holds well or collapses on Wednesday and Thursday...
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15 minutes ago, a2knet said:
As Sun drop was only 21% due to holiday on Monday, the 2nd weekend's Sun-Sun weekly decline will push the weekend drop higher.
Fri-Fri weekly decline will be 70%, Sat-Sat decline will be 55%, Sun-Sun decline will be 60% IMO.
As Sat will be the biggest day of the weekend in absolute numbers, it will try to gravitate the weekend drop towards its 55% weekly decline, but won't be able to help much cause Fri and Sun weekly declines together are too much to counter even by a big Saturday.
Over all weekend drop could be 60-65%.
It's been holding better in Monday and Tuesdy than Dracula Untold. Which had a 57.5% 2nd weekend drop...
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50-55% 2nd weekend drop seems likely.
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19 minutes ago, Captain Craig said:
How close to $50m could BR2049 be going into it's second weekend?
That Tuesday bump + a softer Wed drop would be crucial it seems.
A 60% drop seems very likely. A best case scenario is probably 55% drop or thereabouts.
I don't think 55% drop is best scenario at all. Taken 2 dropped harder and it did have 56% drop. We likely won't know until Friday in my opinion.
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Should do well. Overseas audience eat these disaster movies up! Also it looks fun in a guilty pleasure way. $230M?
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In random news, Flatliners held well in its 2nd weekend. Only dropping 39.5%.
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3 minutes ago, a2knet said:
Fury Road like legs (3.38x) take it to 110-111m. Going by the Thursday preview size that itself will require more shenanigans than Fury Road. Probably 3.2x for 105m is the high-end.
It does have less competition than Fury Road. I can see it having similar legs.
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1 hour ago, Blaze Heatnix said:
This movie isn't doing 250 million worlwide. Not with these domestic numbers.
Let’s hope it legs it to $100M DOM. I think it can still be like Edge of Tomorrow and Pacific Rim.
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3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:
Predictions for next weekend:
Happy Death Day: 25M
Blade Runner: 11M
The Foreigner: 7M
Mountain Between Us: 6M
It: 5.3M
Victoria and Abdul: 5M
American Made: 4.6M
My Little Pony: 4.5M
Kingsman: 4.1M
Ninjago: 4.1M
Marshall: 2M
I’ll eat a shoe if Blade Runner drops by that much...
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1 minute ago, John Marston said:
I hope so, but that had the benefit of summer days and Father's Day second weekend
I understand but aren’t fall movies in general more leggy than Summer films? Edge of Tomorrow had a lot of competition in June and still managed great legs. Blade Runner doesn’t really have until Thor Ragnarok, a month later.
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I think Blade Runner doing Edge of Tomorrow numbers is still possible.
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4 minutes ago, Cookson said:
Yes, but me thinks it'll have worse legs.
Why? It has the fantastic reviews and very little competition. It’s a frontloaded OW cause it is a fanboy movie. The legs will depend on WOM. A positive sign is it’s A- cinemascore. Arrival had a B and managed to do 4x.
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10 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:
Can we just appreciate that 2017 is the year that (as far as franchise films go) we have gotten Logan, War for the Planet of the Apes, and Blade Runner: 2049
You forgot Valerian.
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I think Sunday should hold well cause Monday being a holiday. (Colombus Day)
, and gave it a better True Friday hold than that movie [-55% vs -62%] and observed that it leads to a worse Full Friday hold [-69% vs -66%].
Weekend topic: BOM || Happy Death Day: $26.5M || Blade Runner: $15.1M || The Foreigner: $12.8M || IT: $6M || Annabelle: Creation at $300m WW
in Numbers and Data
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Yuck at the Sat # for 2049. Hopefully it’s not true like that $8.3M SAT number we got.