Firepower

A lot more than 25 mln. Wikipedia is not reliable source for this kind of stuff.

His last 2 movies are some of the worst movies of his career. Netflix does him no good, he needs a studio stick to do better as much as doesn't like it and streaming release means those movies won't last. Also we just got R-rated 100+mln biopic that made a billion, just saying. There's no chance Mank cost $25 mln, like not even close.

Yep and it's not just popular book, but also many popular IP cameos on screen at the same time. It could've been directed by Edgar Wright and would've done nearly the same.

Flop averted?

Look, if it gets 4x multi, it will look like a big box office event carried by WOM. But if it's gonna get 2.8x, this is definitely not LOTR/Star Wars event box office-wise, like not even close. Let's not pretend 500-550 mln range is great for it because it's not at all. As long as it does over 600 mln in the end, I'm ok, I hope it succeeds, I really do. If not, it would be an interesting case of a universally beloved movie with strong internet hype and big marketing campaign that didn't translate to actual general audience interest.

I'm using x2.8 multi off 170 mln WW start + potential 50 mln from China. John Wick 4 also had outstanding reception and great start, but had lower multi than all previous John Wick films. 180-190 DOM is not good for this, it needs to cross 200 mln at least. I'm not saying strictly 500M, More like 500-550 range. So even by your own estimates it might not reach 600 mln? You are right, it could be higher. Jeff Sneider claimed WB expects 100 mln OW. I think 1 bln came either from him or some other scooper. If we pretend it's not true and WB are not under crazy pills, I assure you they expected it to gross more than what the first one would've grossed without HBO Max release and Covid. 600 mln is bare minimum it should gross, anything under is obviously a disappointment.

6.6 imdb is average, but not exactly panned, 51% is what it is, mixed, 50/50, it's still far from the worst reception ever, not good, not terrible.

They could be angry, but they already considered a change of plans after TASM2 results as it was discussed in that leaked Sony mail, they would never fire him if TASM2 did a billion even if Garfield spit on Hirai's face. 1. They were... when physical media was still a thing. Matt Damon put it very well on Hot Ones. 2. Because? 3. Hopefully. The point is $500M is not a good number for this. I loved the film, so I want it to be successful, but I don't like those numbers if multi is gonna be below 3 and China's usual 2.

It's definitely not 2x, studios get smaller share from overseas gross and miserable one from China. 2.5x multi is a common one for break even point, I didn't come up with this.

Break-even point is 2.5 multi, 190*2.5 is not 400.

It wasn't that panned, TASM2 is not Madame Web or Morbius, it had mixed reception, but not terrible, in fact it has its fans. It needs great legs for 700m, time will tell if general audience will connect to it enough. Nonsense, nobody cancels the entire big budget franchise because its star didn't show up on some random meeting, it's just an excuse, they killed sequels for one and only reason: money. They expected TASM2 to gross a billion and it barely broke even along with mixed reception. There's no chance Dune 2 had a minimum marketing budget and lower than the first one, you are reaching, they very clearly spared no expense because they believed in it.

But it wasn't a complete narrative, the movie had open-ended ending, more open-ended than the original because they wanted a sequel. There were serious plans about it, Alcon bought the rights to make it their big franchise, they expected it to gross over 400 mln by their own admission and it didn't, in fact it almost killed the studio and left them in dust, that's why we get this pile of shit Amazon series, game and random cartoon, they try to squeeze IP as much as they can to recoup money they spent on buying those rights from Bud Yorkin and cover massive loses on BR2049.

$40M profit killed two sequels to The Amazing Spider-Man 2. I'm absolutely sure WB spent more on Dune's marketing than Universal on Puss in the Boots 2 one. Because it's not a sequel, it's a soft-reboot and it took 14 years to get greenlight, they cancelled a direct sequel from the same director and with the same cast precisely because it wasn't a financial success.

Acclaim and awards didn't save Blade Runner 2049 which was supposed to get a sequel. While you can argue Blade Runner 2049 was a big money loser and Dune Part 2 will at least break even, money still influence decisions of traditional studios, they don't have Apple's money hole.

Maybe in some alternate pink reality where studios run by charities and not money bags who care only about numbers in their annual reports. I'm still waiting for my Dredd sequel, but it seems money bags don't care about reception alone, to the point producers can't even find anyone willing to fund Judge Dredd TV series.

$500M gross against $190M production budget and expensive marketing is a miserable profit, if any profit, sequels to movies with similar gross/budget ratio are usually cancelled or put on shelve till better times. Reception and awards of Part 2 might save Messiah, but that's not a guarantee, it's not a charity, $500M gross would mean general audience doesn't connect to it despite all the praise. Again, IF final gross is gonna be in 500 mln range.

Studio executives live on another planet, I wouldn't be surprised at all if they expected it to hit a billion. If you read Sony's infamous leaked mail, their executives had even crazier expectations about their movies. But I'm absolutely sure WB expected it to do more than 500 mln range.

You can't put critical scores in your pocket. They didn't greenlight Part 2 to have a small increase over the first one on a bigger budget. In fact, it looks like they expected a billion and 100 mln OW. if that's true, I don't see WB not being very disappointed. Studios cancel sequels they announced before commerical results of a movie all the time, The Amazing Spider-Man 2 underperfomance killed already announced and dated Part 3 and 4. You can't put streaming views in your pocket either, they mean absolutely nothing for a theatrical release. But even if we pretend they mean something, first Dune didn't have exceptional streaming results. $500M is what the first one would've done without HBO Max release and Covid, it would mean no increase over the first one despite much better reception and bigger budget. There's no chance the budget is 150-155 mln, you might as well believe in a tooth fairy.

As long as it crosses 600 mln worldwide it should do fine, but 500 mln range would be disappointing and put Messiah in jeopardy.

I'm not sure, it could gross less than Wonka if legs are less than great.

Super front-loaded if lower part of that range is gonna be correct.

Broken Arrow if you are into action flicks, one of Hans Zimmer's best scores and Travolta is great in it. Tony Scott's The Fan, extremely underrated movie and another fantastic score from Zimmer, has surprising shades of Blade Runner despite completely different genre and topic. Fincher's The Game, but maybe you already watched it. Wolf with Nicholson and Pfeiffer. If you are not afraid of really controversial stuff, Adrian Lyne's Lolita adaptation which I think is far better than Kubrick's version in every way and absolutely wouldn't be made today, especially with such a big budget, it's crazy this movie even exists.

Flop.

I do agree about that, but my point is stranger movies made a ton at box office without being super accessible.

There are people who think LOTR is boring and yet it did bonkers.