Carlangonz
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Posts posted by Carlangonz
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PS for Deadpool 2 have started. Trailer really hyped all across social media. Depending on rating by RTC it could challenge Logan's record for a C-Rated or It's records for a B-15 Rated.
And as part of promotion, Ryan Reynolds is coming to Mexico City next wednesday, no fan-event confirmed yet tho, only a press conference and junket.
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Infinity War. 7 days before release. Cinemex Report #2
- 10 cities
- 158 theatres (19.36% from total in the country)
- 1,050 screens (15.80% from total in the country)
City 85%-100% full 50%-84% full 0%-49% full Total Mexico City and M.A. 361 144 68 573 Monterrey 83 69 25 177 Guadalajara 13 19 12 44 Puebla 59 2 7 68 Veracruz 13 6 3 22 Quéretaro 17 10 2 29 Tijuana 1 10 28 39 Cancún 6 7 7 20 Mérida 37 20 2 59 Toluca 1 7 11 19 591 294 165 1050
Growth since last report
City Shows Change (85%-100%) Shows Change (50%-84%) Shows Change (0%-49%) Shows Growth (Total) Mexico City and M.A. +146 -16 -7 +123 Monterrey +32 +2 -17 +17 Guadalajara +7 +9 -8 +8 Puebla +15 -7 -4 +4 Veracruz +6 +2 -2 +6 Quéretaro +10 0 -8 +2 Tijuana 0 +5 +6 +11 Cancún +4 +1 0 +5 Mérida +22 -10 -3 +9 Toluca +1 +4 +3 +8 +243 -10 -40 +193 
- 56.28% of entire shows in the sample are sold-out or near to sold-out! And we're one week away!
- CDMX and M.A. are growing massively. Cinemex Aragón (M.A.) and Cinemex Santa Fé (West) are freaking monsters! The former is starting to book 3:00 AM shows, i've never seen a Cinemex doing shows that late (or early) and the later has already 18 screens 85%+ full, the best result so far for a Cinemex and the second best among both Cinépolis and Cinemex in the sample. Mundo E at north has already sold all of their shows in Platinum (VIP) screens for the entire OD. Four other theatres in the area are selling tickets for 3:00 AM showings too. South area is the strongest as it has most of its shows almost full/totally full.
- Puebla is the city you can't rule out as a overperformer, pretty soon neither Cinépolis or Cinemex will have seats for midnight shows. 4D is the most demanded format in the city for Cinemex; Cinemex San Francisco has already sold-out every show for OD and 2/4 for Saturday.
- Monterrey and Tijuana are very low considering their sizes, people is really going to Thursday previews instead of waiting until midnight, although Tijuana is going to be more walk-up by the Thursday night.
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57 minutes ago, feasby007 said:
With a Mex$380m opening, what would you expect as a total?
Also what did Coco open with and get as final total? Is there a chance IW could beat it?
$800M+, $1B is reception is really good
Coco opened with $166M but legged to $1.1B. Really hard to predict if IW can beat it.
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3 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:
In US dollar?
$20.6-$20.8M
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12 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:
So.. what you expect for the three days?
$380M right now, that would be very close to AOU's 4-Day OW. I'm more sure about this opening in 5,000+ screens.
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I just found out that schools are off on April 27, i think we'll be looking our first $150M+ day
April 30 and May 1 are holidays, then May 2 is Discount Wednesday, first 6 days definitely are coming over $500M
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Infinity War. 11 Days before release. Cinépolis Report #2
- 10 cities
- 158 theatres (19.33% from total in the country)
- 1,812 screens (27.27% from total in the country)
City Midnights % of total screens Growth since last report Mexico City 599 77.29% 4.88% Monterrey 180 67.92% 5.62% Guadalajara 142 65.74% 0.93% Puebla 105 88.98% 1.7% Veracruz 45 93.75% 10.42% Quéretaro 84 80% 3.66% Tijuana 92 85.98% 8.41% Cancún 47 69.11% 10.29% Mérida 47 90.38% 3.85% Toluca 30 51.72% 3.45% 1371 77.89% 6.25% - Last week was opened a new theatre south of CDMX, is already included in the count. I was expecting a bigger jump this week but it was nothing remarkable (for CDMX). South, east and M.A. are the areas with most growth and the most demanding, center is the same since that area was already full since last week. West still weak but is growing little by little, curious to see how it goes next week. 22 theatres are working with all their screens, two are going with 2:00 AM shows an other two with 3:00 AM shows.
- Monterrey has 5 theatres are going all with all of their screens, one of them is starting with 3:00 AM shows and other three with 2:00 AM shows. The biggest theatres of the city are still by half of screens but they're definitely getting more.
- Guadalajara has barely moved, the change comes from three more shows at different theatres, nothing much to say
- Puebla has also barely moved but thst's just because they have their theatres packed. By the way, Angelopolis VIP is adding more 3:00 AM shows.
- Veracruz has almost everything full! The most significant change due to jumps on their VIP theatres.
Cinépolis has in total 3,445 screens across the entire country. Our sample works about a bit above half of the total. Since rest of cities are 2nd and 3rd tier cities let's assume that number of shows are a bit under, let's say somewhere between 1,000-1,200, so that's aboout 2,300 midnight shows for IW opening day, and that's just with 11 days to go. By the time the movie arrives may get close to 2,600-2,700, and that's freaking insane! If we consider Cinemex' numbers then we'll see about that 40% of their shows are almost sold-out or entirely sold-out, if we apply those numbers to Cinépolis then by this time around 920-1,000 should be close to that situation, and that's just being conservative if we consider Cinépolis owns 67.5% market share (Then number would go as high as 1,300 but let's stay on 960 since this is an event and % tends to be lower for Cinépolis). Auditorioums in Mexico usually have 150+ seats, if we check a theatre like Universidad or Perisur the average is 165-170 without considering neither IMAX (double capacity) or VIP (half capacity), but then, both of those theatres are the biggest in the city, if we go with smaller theatres on 2nd tier citites or M.A. then our average must be around 130-140 seats per screens, the VIP seats should be compensated with IMAX and PLF screens, difference shouldn't be much since PLF screens are as common as VIP. Let's use 130 seats average and multiply it for 960 shows, by this time those 124,800 tickets sold are not so far from AOU's entire numbers in the chain (148,591) and soon over TFA's 205K. Buuut... those numbers are just for near to sold-out or sold-out shows, then number would be way higher. If we go optimistic (upping average for either seats or shows) then AoU should be falling very soon or it already did. I know, take this with a grain of salt as big as you want but by the massive number of shows there's no doubt of how big this is being, specially since it's been only 10 days since tickets went on sale versus a month of AOU and two months of TFA.
Source: https://intranet.cinepolis.com/SitePages/Fact Sheet.aspx
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APRIL 13-15 WEEKEND. RAMPAGE OPENS ON TOP AND ADDS ANOTHER HIT FOR THE ROCK. A QUIET PLACE PULLS AN INCREDIBLE HOLD.
Rampage
- +10% from PR:U, on par with The Mummy and -18.86% from Skull Island
- Should get close to $200M before gets destroyed by Infinity War.
- Forth movie in a row starring The Rock to cross $100M+. CI came real close with $98M
A Quiet Place
- Performing more like The Conjuring or Split than The Purge or Insidious. Good sign of wom.
- On par with Split at the same point of release.
- Still playing at 1,100 screens, it's going to lose some of them to Truth or Dare and then audience but should finish at $120M+
Love, Simon
- On par with Everything, Everything.
- $45M-$50M as final
# MOVIE WEEKEND % CHANGE TOTAL (MXN) TOTAL (USD) ADM. TOTAL ADM. 1 Rampage $89 $89 $4.92 1.6 1.6 2 A Quiet Place $26.09 -37,73% $92.6 $5.08 461.6K 1.75 3 Love, Simon $18.03 $18.03 $996K 304.06K 304.06K 4 Ready Player One $11.88 -59,59% $155.29 $8.50 210.05K 2.8 5 The Hurricane Heist $8.15 -68,77% $49.6 $2.71 165K 1.06 6 Ploey, You Never Fly Alone $7.19 $7.19 $397K 144.6K 144.6K 7 Hasta que la Boda nos Separe $4.09 -70,95% $76.09 $4.16 73.7K 1.5 8 Game Night $3.8 -62,37% $20.8 $1.14 57.5K 345.1K 9 Pacific Rim: Uprising $3.3 -76,25% $214.1 $11.62 68.19K 4.3 10 Mazinger Z: Infinity $3.09 -78,54% $25.41 $1.39 64.5K 506.68K This Friday opens: Truth or Dare, Gnome Alone, Viking, I Can Only Imagine, Last Flag Flying, Sueño en Otro Idioma, Tramposos con Suerte, Visages Villages and Verano 1993.
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48 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:
Pictures from Monterrey's subway.
Something i noticed but i haven't confirmed at all until now is that just like they did to Civil War, Disney is keeping the original name for the movie, no translation, i think is good, is been known like that (Infinity War) since it was announced.
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I'll do a better breakdown tomorrow but considering a conservative average of seats per screen and a similar ticket price to midnights for TFA, AOU and BVS i'm guessing Infinity War is beating PS total numbers of those three by next friday (20th). Couldn't find any data for CW. $30M+ total are my prediction, but honestly i don't know how much can explode on release week.
Difference between IW and any other movie whatever is Avengers, Star Wars or Fast and Furious is speed on which tickets are sold. Neither of those had this kind of rush to get tickets, if they did they concentrated only in one area (like Star Wars), a format (like Avengers) or a specific time (like midnights for three examples) but IW is all through different formats, times and most of cities. They're not perfect and as sample data shows there are still plenty of shows in many places, but they're definitely less skewed towards a single aspect than any other comp, we'll see that the upcoming days.
Although, i really don't know where this is going to be in level of front-loadness and how it'll go. WoM is crucial for multiple views.
And marketing is completely huge, it's been eclipsing Warner's promotion for Rampage. This level of pre-release awareness can only remember lived with Spider-Man 3 (a lot of partnerships with local and international companies, marketing everywhere and a lot of hype coming from first two installments) and Toy Story 3 (i feel that this one started to became advanced ticketing a more common thing, definitely one of the most beloved sagas). Funny fact all three are third instalments of their respective sagas. Age of Ultron and Civil War come behind, and hype was big but i don't think they reached such levels.
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8 minutes ago, LeoC said:
Is this data just for AIW?
Yup. Only for IW, in only one chain and only for midnight shows.
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Cinemex has a very useful tool, on their website and app you can check out the availability of shows. Is ordered by color and means how occupied is the auditorium, red is very crowded, yellow is crowded and green is little crowded. After some metrics i decided to represent it as:
Red = 85%+ occupied
Yellow = 50%-84% occupied
Green = 49%- occupied
After that i also did midnight tracking at:
- 10 cities (same ones as the Cinépolis tracking)
- 158 theatres (19.36% from total in the country)
- 857 screens (12.92% from total in the country). I must clarify i'm only using scheduled screens, not the entire number like with Cinépolis, that's why there's so much difference despite a similar theatre count.
85%-100% 50%-85% 0%-50% CDMX and M.A. 215 160 75 Monterrey 51 67 42 Guadalajara 6 10 20 Puebla 44 9 11 Queretaro 7 10 10 Veracruz 7 4 5 Cancún 2 6 7 Tijuana 1 5 22 Toluca 0 3 8 Mérida 15 30 5 348 304 205 After this, this is how the sample looks for the entire country.
Numbers are insanely high for any movie, Cinemex is not very pre-sale driven as Cinépolis and works this well only for a few theatres.
- CDMX and A.M are way less uniform than Cinépolis. Although they do share a thing in common: their theatres with more shows are from same town in M.A, that's Aragón, which has 10 near sold-out or sold-out, difference is this one doesn't have 3:00 AM shows. West, unlike Cinépolis is performing better than good with amazing results from Santa Fé, center is huge with Parque Delta and Reforma 222 leading, east has Parque Tezontle standing as one of the highest grossers in the chain. Finally, south is leaded by Universidad and Cuicuilco and Mundo E represents north power.
- Puebla is huuuuge here in Cinemex too! They have the best sold-out/show ratio of all 10 cities. By this time 68.75% of their shows are red!
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I just made a shows count for midnights across Cinepolis' theatres on 10 cities.
- 10 cities
- 157 theatres (19.24% from total in the country)
- 1,750 screens (26.38% from total in the country)
City Midnights % of total screens in the city Mexico City and Metropolitan Area 554 72.41% Monterrey 157 62.30% Guadalajara 140 64.81% Puebla 103 87.28% Veracruz 40 83.33% Quéretaro 71 76.34% Tijuana 83 77.57% Cancún 40 58.82% Mérida 45 86.53% Toluca 28 48.27% - CDMX and M.A. is still growing over the next weeks. There's strenght everywhere with M.A and south dominating while west is pretty weak compared to other areas, but that happens for every single movie not named Star Wars, only two theatres (Plaza Carso and Parque Toreo) are outperforming. Metropoltan Area has three shows for 3:00 AM and north has one for 2:00 AM. Forum Buenavista (3rd highest grosser theatre in the country according to RTH) has its 16 screens near to sold-out or sold-out, same situation for other smaller theatres such as Oasis Coyoacan (12), Encuentro Fortuna (12) or Cosmopol (12)
- Monterrey is consistent on every area but any is particularly impressive, although it may be affected by people deciding to cross over Texas to get to see it on Thursday previews. The biggest theatres (Galerías Valle Oriente and Galerías Monterrey) have filled IMAX, 4DX and VIPs but they're far from booking the entire theatres. The city counts with four 2:00 AM shows
- Guadalajara with less showings has a better ratio shows/screens thanks to seven theatres with all of screens available, included second biggest of the city: Forum Tlaquepaque. Unlike Monterrey, here aren't any 2:00 AM or 3:00 shows... yet.
- Puebla is a fraking monster! They're up to 7 out of 11 theatres with all of their screens booked. They're also already offering five extra shows at 3:00 AM, one of them is practically a sold-out.
- The chain is also opening Salas Junior (exclusive for families), which is a sign of how huge things are coming, IW will be the first 'B' (PG-13) movie to be shown at these auditorioums.
Over next days i'll do similar exercises now focusing over specific theatres and formats. I don't have numbers for Cinemex screens but they do have a very useful tool to see how busy their screens are and i'll use it too.
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Footage from the April 5 fan-event. Starting minute 2 you can jump until minute 4, for some reason Disney is promoting the movie even with YouTubers. Victoria Alonso was pretty cool in both fan event and press conference.
Spots are all in over Disney platforms in both social media and TV. Social media activity is huge, is hard to escape from it.
Also, some theaters in Puebla and State of Mexico are starting to book shows for 3:00 AM.
So, yeah... IW in here is like TPM or TFA in the US
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APRIL 06-08 WEEKEND. A QUIET PLACE SURPRISES AND BLOW AWAY COMPS. HURRICANE OVERPERFORMS AND GAME NIGHT FLOPS.
A Quiet Place
- As i already mentioned, it beat total grosses for HDD and Get Out. 3-Day OW is on par with Split.
- OD-OW ratio was bigger than i expected, marketing worked very well.
- It has two clean weeks to reach $120M+, amazing success
Ready Player One
- Incredible hold, WOM does seems to be working good
- Rampage and Infinity War are coming but should add $35M+ more
# MOVIE WEEKEND % CHANGE TOTAL (MXN) TOTAL (USD) ADM. TOTAL ADM. 1 A Quiet Place $41,9 $48,9 $2,68 750,9K 890,8K 2 Ready Player One $29,4 -45,91% $133,7 $7,32 505,7K 2,3 3 The Hurricane Heist $26,1 $31,1 $1,70 521,8K 630,7K 4 Mazinger Z: Infinity $14,4 $18,1 $994K 270,2K 342,4K 5 Hasta que la Boda nos Separe $14,08 -48,42% $65,8 $3,60 256,6K 1,3 6 Pacific Rim: Uprising $13,9 -59,49% $206,1 $11,19 282K 4,1 7 Game Night $10,1 $11,8 $648K 157,1K 185,6K 8 Sherlock Gnomes $8,58 -46,13% $39,8 $2,17 172,3K 862,03K 9 A Wrinkle in Time $7,4 -54,79% $38,3 $2,09 138,8K 755,2K 10 La 4a Compañía $2,5 $2,9 $159K 44,3K 52,4K This Friday opens: Rampage, Love, Simón, 7 Days in Entebbe, Ploey, Loveless, Ôtez-Moi d'Un d'Oute and Last Flag Flying
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Every holdover this weekend is looking at a 50%+ drop this weekend.
- RPO had exceptional weekdays but anyway is finishing just O/U 50% drop. Right now aims for $180M
- 'Hasta que la Boda nos Separe' is on risk from reaching $100M, if it does is finishing just a bit over.
- Pacific Rim: Uprising keeps sinking with a 65% drop this weekend.
Now; about openers:
- A Quiet Place is beating HDD's and Get Out's entire gross this weekend and running only 10% behind Split.
- Mazinger Z is pulling a very impressive $20K PSA this weekend.
- Game Night dissapointed opening close to half to Hitman's Bodyguard.
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Surpsingly, Hurricane Heist is doing better than good numbers
Totals up to Friday.
1/ A Quiet Place -- $18M
2/ Ready Player One -- $111.8M
3/ The Hurricane Heist -- $11M
4/ Hasta que la Boda nos Separe -- $55.5M
5/ Mazinger Z -- $7.4M
6/ Pacific Rim: Uprising -- $195.5M
7/ Game Night -- $4.4M
8/ Sherlock Gnomes -- $33.3M
9/ A Wrinkle in Time -- $32.7M
10/ La 4a Compañía -- $1M
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PS for IW are just breathtaking. As i posted before; both Cinépolis and Cinemex collapsed, Cinemex went down for a few minutes but Cinépolis took a bit longer to recover. Some things i've noticed the last 17 hours since tickets went on sale:
- Midnights for 14/15 IMAX screens across the country are above any comp. Strong sales in IMAX Cancún and IMAX Cuernavaca are helping to take advantage over movies like It (best PS numbers i saw during 2017)
- Mexico City and Monterrey have best numbers, then Guadalajara. Puebla and Veracruz are close.
- Cinépolis has strength for north and center zones (except Guanajuato) while Cinemex dominates south, mostly Yucatán.
- #InfinityWar was #1 TT on Twitter for over 8 hours.
- Theatres are starting shows as early as 9:00 AM.
My local theatre (8 traditional screens and 4 VIP) is at the same point where BvS was two days before shows started. Other one (11 traditional screens) is at same point CW was one week before release. For midnights, the former already sold-out 5 traditional screens and has another 3 about 50%-70% full, to compare, this is how next movies FINISHED:
- Spider-Man: Homecoming. 2 sold-out and 1 at 70%
- Thor: Ragnarok. 1 sold-out, 2 at 50%-70% and 1 with less than 50% sold.
- It. 3 sold-out and 3 with 70%+
As weekend goes on i'll see how Sun, Mon and Tue goes since the last two arr holidays and Sun is always a bigger day
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16 hours ago, HouseOfTheSun said:
Expected to pass Coco for highest grossing in Pesos?
Too early to say anything. The movie has elements to be leggy:
- Goodbye to an important character (see Furious 7)
- The big event of the franchise, the movie everyone's been waiting for (see Toy Story 3)
- Novelty of seeing multiple characters for the first time (see Avengers)
- Emotional ending (if it happens) (see Coco, Instructions not Included)
Or could be another Deathly Hallows 2 and collapse after week one, specially with two holidays on first week.
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In a few hours i'll do a better recap but in Cinemex the PS is huuuuge. Many theatres will be outselling best 2017's PS numbers (It) through the weekend. Cinemex also crashed a few minutes but immediately recovered.
For what i saw in Cinépolis; PLF's, IMAX and 4D are selling in minutes for midnights.
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"It's 00:05 AM and Cinépolis' website already crashed."
Guadalajara and CDMX had sold-outs by 00:00 for some shows that appeared twenty-thirty minutes earlier.
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11 hours ago, fabiopazzo2 said:
7.5 is the best OD in Mexico? Any chance to pass $ 10M ?
Civil War opened with $124M, with current ER that's $6.8M USD. I do believe IW can top that but $10M is a very long stretch. I'm thinking $8M right now, midnights are going to be bigger so that allows room for more shows satisfying demand on day. Plus, CW wasn't an AoU or TFA that held shows sold-out for early morning, that's something very possible for IW if Disney and chains allow it.
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2 hours ago, fabiopazzo2 said:
I’m expecting something similar to Age of ultron/CW in Mexico. Good OW but bad drop in 2nd weekend
Same, even if WOM is good a +50% drop is reasonable. After that legs are decided by WOM.
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I couldn't share this until today but still something. The "special guest" coming to Mexico with Joe Russo is...
And they're coming... TOMORROW! (Thursday). First half hour of the movie was showed to local press just an hour ago. They have same embargo date as in the US.
Meanwhile, yesterday (Tuesday) Cinépolis closed its app for the last update before Infinity War. That's really weird, they do updates and maintenance but never close the app or website unless they change the entire interface. Massive demand is expected.
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April 30 and May 1 are holidays, then May 2 is Discount Wednesday, first 6 days definitely are coming over $500M
Mexico Box Office | $83.1M total up to Monday for Inside Out 2; here come the Minions!
in International Box Office
Posted
Great holds for both Rampage and A Quiet Place. Truth or Dare opened stronger than i expected