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Posts posted by Carlangonz
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19 minutes ago, Cinefilo said:
What's the decline in USD? It should be around -40%, right?
That's right, -38% compared to TFA.
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12 minutes ago, Purple Minion said:
Well, there you go:
So $133M 4-Day, -30% from TFA. $94.33 3-Day, -28% from TFA.
TFA scenario: $330M
RO scenario: $290M
Stronger competition than TFA, so can pass $300M but not much after that.
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2 hours ago, NCsoft said:
This is why box office watching for different global markets is so exciting!
I know, the most exciting runs this year for me were Wolf Warriors 2 in China and Coco in Mexico and China. In US/Canada only was that aware for It, but OS markets are amazing since are way more unpredictable.
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All said i'm thinking
IW OD > TLJ 4-Day OW
IW OW > TLJ Total
Coco Total > TFA + RO + TLJ Totals
That last one makes you wonder if SW is really weak or if Coco was really massive.
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2 minutes ago, manny1234 said:
I agree but somehow ComicBook Movies especially the ones from Marvel and DC perform very well in Latin America, and comic book movies have a strong fanbase like sci-fi does, why do ComicBook Movies do so well in Latin America especially Mexico and Brazil?
Like i said, GA don't give a shit about sci-fi, but they do with CBM. They both can have similar fan-bases but just like with every movie, the ones that matter the most are GA.
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3 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:
To be interested in sci-fi you probably need to reach a certain level of economic development and a sci-fi culture coming with being technologically advanced.
This.
It's not in a mean way but you don't see much SW piracy since the people that buys most of the SW merchandising are people with a high income that can afford licensed merchandise. Same reflects on how certain zones sell better than other ones, i remember that for TFA, Perisur and Universidad were working 24 hours the first week of release, the places where both are located are zones where lives people of a high socioeconomical status. That was the only time i saw theatres in Mexico having showtimes at 3:00 AM, 5:00 AM and 6:00 AM, the closest was with AoU, some theatres in big cities opened since 7:00 AM.
So yeah, i have the same sense that you do.
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11 minutes ago, UserHN said:
Is SW big in Mexico?
Plays well in main cities like Mexico City and Guadalajara, same with border cities like Monterrey, Juarez or Tijuana due to fanbase strongly connected. But unfortunately it's a dead franchise for GA, sci-fi is not a draw in Mexico.
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Wonder aims a $24-$26M 4-Day OW.
3-Day weekend
DH2: 11-13.5
ABMC: 7-9
$5-$7 for JL: 5-7
Don't Hang Up: 4.5
Coco: 4-4.3
The Star: $1
Less than 1 for both Ragnarok and Camino A Marte
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$23.9M fri for TLJ. Runs 33% behind TFA, this isn't boding well, same multi Thu-Fri/OW takes it to $126M and if keeps 33% behind number is $129M. May sub-100M 3-Day and 130-135M 4-Day.
EDIT. Following Rogue One course, 140M is the number for the 4-Day.
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4 minutes ago, SoSaysI said:
I don't think it will be as big as the first domestically but I think Avatar 2 will clear $2 billion worldwide and even if it doesn't reach the heights of the first there is no way that can be construed as a disappointment.
Yeah, Avatar franchise will be huge overseas as SW is in DOM. I think US/Canada and China be enough for $1B
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WEEKLY REPORT. DADDY'S STILL ON TOP AS STAR WARS OPENS.
Daddy's Home 2
- $180M are locked, $190s is where may end
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
- 25% under TFA OD. Following same multi gives a $138M 4-Day OW and $348M total. Is less front-loaded so $145M-$155M 4-Day OW. Final number is almost certain will be under $400M (maybe even under $380M)
Wonder
- $18M-$24M for 4-Day OW. Mid 30s by monday.
Everything else had good weekdays compared to last week.
-30% for DH2
-30% for JL
-31% for Coco
-28% for T:R
WEEKDAYS (LC) WEEKLY (LC) TOTAL (MXN) TOTAL (USD) ADM. TOTAL ADM. 1 Daddy's Home 2 $15,96 $45,87 $161,27 $8,55 1 3,43 2 Star Wars: The Last Jedi $39,57 $39,57 $39,57 $2,06 600K 600K 3 A Bad Mom's Christmas $14,04 $34,11 $34,11 $1,78 690K 710K 4 Justice League $9,45 $27,97 $456,06 $24,15 590K 8,93 5 Wonder $4,38 $17,79 $17,79 $936K 325,1K 325,1K 6 Coco $5,63 $16,83 $1084,39 $56,70 364,1K 23,08 7 Camino A Marte $3,41 $8,38 $29,2 $1,54 161,1K 560K 8 The Star $2,03 $5,87 $5,87 $308K 128,5K 128,5K 9 Thor: Ragnarok $1,76 $4,97 $402,11 $20,76 107,1K 7,92 10 Acts of Vengeance $1,46 $3,68 $3,68 $193K 80,9K 80,9K -
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I'm expecting Wonder to come somewhere on early 40s by the end of the weekend (OW + previews).
Don't think TLJ go over $150M, i'm going with mid 140s.
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ERC says $2.1M USD OD for TLJ. $40.15M MXN, it's coming 25% under TFA. Is looking at a $140M-$160M 4-Day OW.
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1 hour ago, redgarlic68 said:
I know it I doesn't I mean anything, but my 3 pm showing was like 10% full, wasn't expecting that.
Today was overall a slow day, except for midnights. Tomorrow is 15 so everything will recover.
I expect $150-$160 4-Day for TLJ and somewhere on $25-$30 for Wonder. But let's see how numbers roll tomorrow morning.
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First screenings for TLJ starts in 5 hours and i see a lot of tickets selling fast in last hours. 20% of my showing has sold in the last 3 hours, i expect to end about 85%-90% sold, my showing is the second 2D subtitled in my theater; the first one is sold-out, 3D dubbed and 2D dubbed are both 40% sold.
Also, seems Coco isn't holding more screens by now. My local theatre (12 screens) is having barely 1 showtime for tomorrow, other theatres are having 3-5. 9 showtimes for Wonder, JL has 6 and TLJ is getting 22 (which is still a low number).
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32 minutes ago, filmlover said:
Greatest Showman is embargoed until 12:01am the night it opens. That confident, huh, Fox?
Nominated to Best Picture Musical or Comedy at the Golden Globes ladies and gentlemen.
It could've been The Big Sick but naaah
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1 hour ago, Purple Minion said:
Infinity by far, should do over 700M lc. I see Incredibles at Finding Dory levels (400M), don't think the original broke any records.
Same.
MU, FD and IO numbers for Incredibles 2 and over $700M for Infinity War.
Can't say anything yet about USD gross, with NAFTA still going on and elections for president, 2018 is going to be a year of volatility for the peso.
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DECEMBER 08-10 WEEKEND. DADS AND MOMS WIN THE WEEKEND, WONDER STARTS FRESH WITH PREVIEWS
Daddy's Home 2
- Now it's over the entire run of first DH.
- If competition doesn't kill it won't have issue going over $180M MXN and $10M USD. Huge success for a comedy
A Bad Mom's Christmas
- Anywhere on 50's is the scenario for this one
Wonder
- Similar to Gifted's OW. Working as a counter-programming for upcoming big blockbusters eventually will take it to over $50M
Thor: Ragnarok
- 2nd best drop of the Top 10; Infinity War trailer, its power!
- 6th biggest hit for the MCU. Now; 3 Avengers over $400M.
# MOVIE WEEKEND % CHANGE TOTAL (MXN) TOTAL (USD) ADM. TOTAL ADM. 1 Daddy's Home 2 $29,91 -48,33% $145,28 $7,72 600K 3,03 2 A Bad Mom's Christmas $20,07 $20,07 $1,05 390K 390K 3 Justice League $18,52 -52,05% $446,32 $23,66 342,7K 8,7 4 Wonder $13,41 $13,41 $707K 237,4K 237,4K 5 Coco $11,2 -52,80% $1078,63 $56,41 223,7K 22,94 6 Camino A Marte $4,97 -63,02% $25,78 $1,37 84,6K 484,8K 7 The Star $3,84 $3,84 $202K 78,3K 78,3K 8 Thor: Ragnarok $3,21 -48,47% $400,33 $20,67 63K 7,87 9 Cometa, El, su Perro y su Mundo $2,33 $2,33 $122K 46,8K 46,8K 10 Acts of Vengeance $2,22 $2,22 $117K 43,1K 43,1K This Thursday starts holiday season with:
Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Wonder, Don't Hang Up, Detroit, Un Beau Soleil Intérieur and The Nightmare Before Christmas (Re-release)
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http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/espectaculos/cine/crece-preventa-con-los-ultimos-jedi
Cinépolis reports PS for TLJ over TFA and RO at the same point before release (12 days before), especially for midnight screenings in IMAX and 2D subtitled versions. PS are strong in south, center and west zones of Mexico City, behind of them are Monterrey, Tijuana, Puebla and Guadalajara.
http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/espectaculos/cine/imparable-la-preventa-de-los-ultimos-jedi
Until friday, Cinemex had sold about 85K tickets in PS; 75K of them are for midnight screenings. West and center zones of Mexico City are top players for the movie, then comes the same cities that Cinépolis. Top formats are 2D subtitled and Cinemextremo (auditorioums with 300-500 seats, Dolby Atmos system and some of them with laser projection).
'The Force Awakens' sold about 400K tickets and grossed about $25.3M in midnight screenings (3rd best numbers only behind Civil War and BvS). PS total was about 800K tickets (2nd best number only behind Civil War which came about 1M)
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On 9/12/2017 at 6:57 AM, meriodejaneiro said:
But that's the "mexican dubbed" version, which is the same being released in Spain a week ago.
You know that "mexican" isn't a language right? It's spanish with latin accent. I think he meant a spanish speaking version not exactly a Spain accent version.
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PS for Jumanji have started, it opens on Dec 21. And for some strange and unexplainable reason is getting midnight screenings
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WEEKLY REPORT.
Daddy's Home 2
- Will pass $100M this weekend looking for a $150M-$160M end
Justice League
- $480M is its new high end. #7 of the year, $340M behind TA, $300M behind AoU and $150M under BvS
Coco
- $1.1B is less and less possible, a last holiday push may help
WEEKDAYS (LC) WEEKLY (LC) TOTAL (MXN) TOTAL (USD) ADM. TOTAL ADM. 1 Daddy's Home 2 $22,89 $80,78 $115,18 $6,15 1,74 2,43 2 Justice League $13,5 $52,13 $427,69 $22,69 1,03 8,35 3 Coco $8,16 $31,89 $1067,47 $55,83 680K 22,71 4 Camino A Marte $7,32 $20,76 $20,76 $1,11 399K 399K 5 Thor: Ragnarok $2,45 $8,68 $397,09 $20,51 184,7K 7,81 6 The Son of Bigfoot $1,81 $7,43 $7,43 $397K 172,5K 172,5K 7 Murder on the Orient Express $890K $2,75 $53,88 $2,79 43,6K 940K 8 Overdrive $860K $2,55 $12,82 $686K 51,1K 272,9K 9 Loving Vincent $900K $2,46 $4,92 $263K 37,7K 75,7K 10 Jigsaw $780K $1,85 $21,88 $1,16 43,8K 482,9K Today opens: A Bad Mom's Christmas, Acts of Vengeance, The Star, Leatherface, Cometa, Él, su Perro y su Mundo, La Mélodie and tomorrow & sunday are Wonder previews.
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So Wonder is doing previews on sat and sun before its release next thursday.
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5 hours ago, Jiffy said:
Will Coco overtake The Avengers in USD?
Noup, is going to end about $3M under.
Mexico Box Office | Inside Out 2 now #3 all-time, $82M; loud $4.7M OW for A Quiet Place: Day One
in International Box Office
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DHD says $2.4M total for Wonder, OW + previews. That translates to an amazing $45.75M. $27.9M 3-Day OW and $32.3M 4-Day.