nomyth
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Posts posted by nomyth
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For some reason, I'm only able to enter predictions for the openers this week. None of the holdovers show up. Was wondering if this was happening for anyone else.
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Pulse
1. DT
2. Dunkirk
3. GT
4. AB
5. SMH
DT at #1 might look pretty good but it's selling about as many tickets as AB was this time last week (120 tickets every 10 minutes vs. 110). Looking around 20M still I think but I wouldn't be surprised by a little less.
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Not surprised by those #'s. Kidnap has been tracking pretty closely to Detroit on Pulse so I've been thinking it may do more than most expect (granted, still not that much). I think DT will have a healthy enough OD, but will need good WOM to go beyond low 20's.
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Over the course of 10 minutes, DT popped up on Pulse 42 times, Detroit 7 times and Kidnap 5 times. Last week, AB was at 28 and Emoji at 22.
DT is for sure in better shape than AB, however I would think DT would be more presales heavy. I'm thinking around 20M right now for the weekend. Detroit and Kidnap are obviously pretty much non factors right now. Wouldn't be surprised by sub 10M for Detroit.
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8 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:
Atomic Blonde looks like another generic hot woman with robotic personality beats up men for 90 minutes, with lesbian sex scene in the marketing.
Why would people care about his movie?
???? Looks like another....? What's the other film where a 'hot woman beats up men for 90 minutes with lesbian sex'? Like seriously... can't think of one.
I get if you're not interested in AB, but I don't think you can really argue that films like it come out all the time.
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AB's performance may be disappointing to some, but it's in no way a flop. With a budget of 30M, it'll easily turn a profit.
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Believe me... I'm pretty darn butt hurt that Emojimovie is gonna beat my 2nd most anticipated film of the summer by a good 10M but let's not pretend like this is the first bad movie to do well.
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18 minutes ago, Cochofles said:
What's the buzz on Dark Tower ? Hit or miss?
Unfortunately, it's looking more like a miss. It's presales on Pulse have been pretty weak, about on par with the 2 openers this week. I doubt it opens above 25M, honestly.
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I was always worried about AB underperforming because I absolutely knew for certain that everyone was gonna scapegoat Theron's sexuality and act like that was the big problem. And, I'm sorry, but I think you guys are being totally unfair.
First! Can people stop ignoring the fact that Theron was producer on this film and had a lot of creative control and input? Secondly, I'm just tired of the female sexuality discussion because I legit think people have a near impossible time taking a woman seriously when she's owning her sexuality. Especially if her sexuality excludes men.
Everybody gets so defensive about the male gaze that I think they forget that gay/bisexual women exist and need representation in mainstream cinema as well.
My best friend pointed out that in Mad Max they practically had to completely de-sexualize her in order for people to take her character seriously. And, judging by the comments here, it sounds like the same thing was largely true for WW. Yes, the male gaze sucks and if you want to criticize a film like BitWC for that, it would make a lot more sense (considering what the actresses had to say after the fact). But it was ALWAYS clear that this was Theron's idea and it was done on her terms. I won't argue that it wasn't heavily featured in the promotion. It clearly was. But the idea that the film is underperforming for that reason seems like another way to scrutinize female sexuality.
Spy flicks tend to be hit and miss and nobody ever expected a huge opening for AB so I really don't understand why everybody's already trying to come up with reasons why this didn't make more money.
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Honestly, if the lesbian stuff turned people off, I think it's kinda BS. I mean, I get the male gaze stuff, but Charlize specifically changed the sex of that character for the sake of representation. Not to mention how heavily involved Theron was in the creative process of this film.
As I said, I understand the concern about the male gaze but almost every film is from the male gaze. It's like people don't even think about representation for queer women. And while there may have been too much emphasis on it in the marketing, I really can't imagine anyone would be complaining had it been a straight love scene.
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Emojimovie looks like it's finally peaking!!!
MT
1. Emoji - 26.0%
2. Dunkirk - 21.4%
3. GT - 10.6%
4. AB - 9.9%
5. SMH - 6.8%
Pulse
1. Dunkirk
2. AB
3. GT
4. Emoji
5. SMH
I was waiting all day to see AB top Emoji and yet the second it does, Dunkirk leap frogged it. C'mon AB!!
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Their predictions for the summer have been pretty solid but I don't see how it's remotely possible that Ninjago grosses more than It. I think they're massively underestimating that one.
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I was hoping for 8M for AB (which I felt was slightly optimistic anyway) so I'm pretty happy with this early #.
Still watching Pulse and MT tho to see if it makes any big jumps. It obviously will play better at night, so I would love to see that # climb to 8.
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OMG, this trailer just made me legit jump in the middle of the airport. The people next to me snickered but I don't care!! Still my most anticipated of the year! Looks amazing!!!
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1 hour ago, Stutterng baumer Denbrough said:
The direction is about as competent as an early Kevin Smith film. The editing looks like they used a super 8 video camera and spliced together scenes. The cinematography is non existent and some of the acting is terrible and the tone shifts and jump in time line is horrible at times. So what do you have left? You have a hot topic now where a young gay black man is being bullied in high school. Repeat that to yourself again. I'll do it for you. You have a young gay black man being bullied in high school. That's about as sensitive an issue as you have in today's climate. So the academy rewards it. Not because it's the best film of the year but because they would look foolish not to. They got their reputation dragged through the mud last year when #OSCARSOWHITE became a thing. In years past, films like Do The Right Thing, Boyz N The Hood and Malcolm X were snubbed in almost every way imaginable and no one really cared. But now with gay rights much more relevant and bullying being at the forefront, this, like Gandhi and other films, were the chosen winner, IMO, not because it was the best film of the year but because it was the most socially relevant and one that would give the academy a reputation boost. That's my opinion. I simply don't see Moonlight as anything more than a political cop out....an OOPs my bad, a make up call of sorts. It's not just not worthy of the oscar, it's just not really a good movie at all.....IMO.
It's so hard to respond to this (especially since I really don't want to have a political discussion). I mean, it's cool you don't like the film. Obviously, I disagree with your assessment of the film, but that's not what I take issue with.
I'll just say this, it really sucks that a movie like Moonlight FINALLY does win best picture and all you hear is 'Oh! It just won cause of politics.' As I said in an earlier post, there are a thousand factors that go into each best picture win throughout the years and, yes, this is often a reflection of the times. What bothers me, however, is how people cherry pick which films they specifically have an issue with and completely undermine the film and its achievements because of these reasons. You don't like the film, cool, but I don't think your assessment of its best picture win is fair at all. And the frustration you and many others express about it's win seems really unjustified (particularly when you look through the academy's history of awarding questionable films).
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Yeah, I'm not too surprised by that tracking. I've been following AB pretty closely and it barely popped up at all before Monday. What gives me hope is that it's surged quite a bit the past couple of days on Pulse. Now with that said, it's still really inconsistent. Whereas Emoji will usually sell 15-25 tickets over the course of 10 minutes, I've seen AB as high as 35 but as low as 6 in the past 2 days. It's still discount Tuesday so the next 2 days will really tell us where it's headed. I'm still cautiously hoping for 20M.
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So sad to not predict WW this week.
What a run!
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26 minutes ago, Stutterng baumer Denbrough said:
So i should not be allowed to state an opinion?
Let's be real about this one. We're not debating the film's quality. I don't care who does or doesn't like the movie. What I'm debating is the fact that the sole reason people care for this movie is because it's about a gay black man. That is what you and many others assert about this film and, I'm sorry, but I do have to disagree with that assertion. Vehemently.
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It bothers me how the same people who tell people that they shouldn't judge Transformers and Baywatch can say with absolute certainty that Moonlight is pure mediocrity and only got good reviews because it was by people of color.
Movie taste is subjective! And just because you got nothing out of the movie doesn't mean everyone who did is lying or has some political agenda!!!! I LOVED Moonlight. That doesn't mean I'm full of shit. And I can understand not everyone loving it like I did. I hated Birdman. But I'm not gonna go around and act like I was right and everybody else was wrong.
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Ugh. I'm so tired of this discussion. It's a clear way to undermine CERTAIN best picture winners.
The Academy is political and there's always politics that play into their decision. Every single freaking year! Do you guys really think The Departed is Scorsese's best picture? Is No Country For Old Men the best Coen Bros movie? There's always a million reasons why the film that wins best picture does happen to win that particular year. But the only time people seem to scream politics is when the film happens to feature predominantly non white casts. Now why is that...?
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Over 10 minutes, Atomic Blonde popped up on Pulse 28 times and Emojimovie 22 times. Last week at this time, Dunkirk was at 60, GT at 45 and Valerian was at 12.
Obviously, we need to wait and see how they build throughout the week but I think these early #'s are fairly in line with early projections that have both movies in the 20's. Would love to see Atomic Blonde break out but it's been selling basically nothing during the day so I want to see it increase a lot over the next couple days before I get too optimistic. Pulse and MT will be fun to watch on Thursday.
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I always credit I Love Lucy a lot with the rise of TV. The 2nd season had a 67 rating. Obviously, the # of households with TV's were way less but that's still crazy to me. I can't imagine anything nowadays could come close to the popularity of that show or shows like Gunsmoke, Bonanza, Andy Griffith Show etc.
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WOM is important but just as important is the curiosity factor. That's a big part of what drove Get Out and WW. Not sure if Dunkirk will have that. Depends how hyperbolic the feedback is I think. The Sunday and Monday drops will be very telling.
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Derby Support Thread
in Box Office Derby
Posted
Hmmm... I've tried clearing my cache and signed in and out several times. @AndyLL can I pm you my predictions for this week? Or is there something else I should try?