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Everything posted by PNF2187
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I don't think Frozen and Encanto are fully comparable just due to the differences with how music was consumed in 2014 vs how it's consumed now. If we're just going by Hot 100 hits, Encanto did have the scales tipped in its favour. Disney released all the MVs for the songs not too long after release and had lyric videos when the soundtrack first hit, and it's a lot easier to chart all of your tracks from an album with how big streaming was in 2022 compared to 2014. Frozen has longevity in it's favour though. Frozen's songs didn't peak as high, but on average they actually stayed on the charts for longer than the songs on Encanto did (Bruno did 20 weeks, but Let It Go did 33 weeks, First Time in Forever did 19 weeks, and Do You Want To Build A Snowman charted for 18 weeks). Frozen's soundtrack sales completely dwarf that of Encanto's, but the former came out at a time when album sales in general were much more favourable.
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Was way more optimistic based on the reactions from last week, but I think Strange World/Elemental level reviews might actually end up being the ceiling for this one critically, and I wouldn't be surprised if this ends up being closer to Mario. Kind surprised how many of the big releases this month are going to end up whiffing critically. The Marvels and Thanksgiving came in higher than I expected, but Trolls, Wish, Hunger Games, and Napoleon were all movies I was expecting to be in the low 70% range on RT at worst, and yet here we are with at least 3 of these probably ending up rotten.
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First off, about time the official accounts put 4K trailers up. This one doesn't suffer from compression anywhere nearly as badly as Wish even at 1080p, but it's nice to see the option there now. Animation looks fantastic as usual though. I'm cautiously optimistic about this - I like the trailer, but I'm usually underwhelmed by Pixar sequels, so we'll see.
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I think this movie's outlook is pretty good if this is the least positive reaction thus far. Opinions on song and animation choices are probably as subjective as you can get, and the praises here are still consistent with a lot of the other reactions. Should be primed for a leggy run through the holidays if word of mouth is a strong as these reactions might indicate. Might just be able to hit $200M DOM.
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BvS already set a precedent with March DCEU releases going sub 2x, so it Fury of the Gods just made it 2 for 2. I feel like WW84 is a reasonable baseline target for Aquaman's legs. That wasn't well received, opened on Christmas Day with a dual release on HBO Max and still managed to hit 2.80x. I don't think The Marvels is going sub 2x. It's not impossible, but I think Thanksgiving week is going to help get it to at least double its opening weekend.
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The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
PNF2187 replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
Technically was hampered by the pandemic and HBO Max, but Wonder Woman 1984 has an even bigger drop from $412M to $46M. -
Weren't a lot of Encanto's songs also trashed here when its OST first came out? I think the songs in Disney musicals generally hit better once you understand it in the context of the film. I remember not liking Where You Are when I first listened to it, but it grew on me a lot once I actually saw Moana. Waiting on a Miracle also grew on me more after watching Encanto.
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Maybe, maybe not. Seems plausible enough though. Flash, Elemental, and Indy are all roughly at the same level (or even slightly under) from when they each first hit industry tracking, and I don't really think there's been anything particularly favourable or unfavourable to drastically affect tracking since. That's not a great number for No Hard Feelings, especially if that budget is actually closer to the $70M that was thrown around earlier. Ruby Gillman's early numbers almost make Elemental's opening look good... almost. Nice to see Elemental shoot up a bit now on RT as it approaches release. Still nowhere near what would be considered encouraging for the film's financial prospects, and Metacritic still has this at 27 out of 27 Pixar films on their site, but 78% on RT is a lot better than whatever it was at last week.