Cooper Legion
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Everything posted by Cooper Legion
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Friday-to-Friday is awful across the Baird since it was a holiday. Banshee lost some screens and is fairly adult skewing, so
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That”s not so bad for menu after all. 9-9.5ish?
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500 has looked unlikely since preview night. It simply didn’t open big enough. The only people having to move their estimates down much are people where I don’t really understand why they had the high estimates to begin with.
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Some of the takes in this thread are getting catastrophically bad
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MCU pre-thanksgiving wknd Multis: TDW 3.7x DS1 3.9x Rag 4.1x Et 3.6x Even 3.7 would take 65 to low 460s. I would peg it more like 4x which takes 65 to ~480
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All the discussion around 2ndwknd/ow and total/ow completely ignoring that it was holiday inflated is really tilting me. You will have more informative numbers for both if you pretend it opened to like 173M instead.
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Unfortunately it is somewhat realistic that we see mcu quality collapse -> mcu bo collapse -> industry dies over the next few years. Hoping for quality to recover instead though 😛
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More likely mid 60 but 70 could happen just with slightly great fri or sat bump
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Veteran’s day was sat, so observed fri, so th night was stronger as it was partial holiday eve
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Although, amusingly, the link between 2nd sat drop and legs going forward is almost nonexistent for MCU (r^2=.12)
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6% above rag adjusted, back closer in line to sat sun.
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70 *is* strong.
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BOP range is pretty wisely chosen imo
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80 would be excellent. Following Rag % of sat sun, would be 72 — but Rag 2nd wknd was vet boosted! Personally I’d take anything over 70 as a pretty good drop. Edit: DS1 would take to 79, but that was even more vet boosted (fri instead of sat) and is a 1st entry/much smaller opening.
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Quite an unfortunate incident of course but these two polish deaths are like, not even a percent of a percent of innocent lives lost to Putin’s territorial ambitions this year — and certainly not going to lead to any direct NATO combat. The bad outcome here is that aid to Ukraine is reduced and the good outcome is that it’s increased.
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Yeah Mon that week is like 60% bigger than otherwise
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Yes, thanksgiving mon is soft since there is some level of formal school break for the entire week and some level of people informally taking off monTues to get a 9day off period.
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VOTE! Democracy Is At Stake! | Week 46
Cooper Legion replied to ChipDerby's topic in Box Office Derby
Technically The Chosen: Season 3: episodes 1&2! It's the season premier of the Jesus christ-y crowdfunded tv show, being screened in theaters as a fathom event. Sales are pretty monstrous (relatively speaking) and the holiday special last year did over 13M: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Christmas-with-the-Chosen-The-Messengers-(2021)#tab=summary Very likely top 3 this weekend. -
Entelligence is basically nonsense. They would likely have a figure of about 11.1 for rag
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VOTE! Democracy Is At Stake! | Week 46
Cooper Legion replied to ChipDerby's topic in Box Office Derby
Upcoming top 10: BP2 The Chosen The Menu Black Adam TTP Lyle Lyle Crocodile She Said Smile Banshees Prey for the Devil -
Precisely expected mon if not slightly good. If it makes total that someone expected look harder than it did 12 hours ago, you were probably overestimating total or are underestimating postD4/D4
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Neat that the BOP reported lines up so close to what I was using. (Technically I had 2% 2017 to 2019 and 20% 2019 to present but felt it was likely a smidge conservative)
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I was using 22% since rag, ~ 10.24. Not sure what math you're doing factcheck -- if you assume rag and bp1 similar, meaning 23% since rag, that would be 12.5 for WF ->10.16
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Sat, sun, and now Mon like 3-6% above rag adjusted. Reception seems similar too, don't expect much deviation until rag's vet bump
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Never much chance. Maybe with holiday effect+ weak other releases
