Cooper Legion
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Posts posted by Cooper Legion
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13 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:
@Cooper Legion how is it going to hit $665M when it's trailing behind JW and schools start in a bit?
(and yes schools do affect overall weekly grosses and not just the weekend/weekday multiplier, kids to go watch movies much more often when they're completely free during summer vacation rather than having to deal with school)
By holding better 😛
The schools thing basically doesn’t matter at all 🤷♂️
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Completely normal Tues after completely normal mon, nothing has really happened since Saturday 🥱
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Anyway seems $30M may be possible which would help in hunt for TLK
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Almost a 10% fluctuation in ER compared to a month ago — what did Disney know 👀👀👀
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9 hours ago, HummingLemon496 said:
@Cooper Legion how does DPW Monday change your prediction for DOM total?
SpoilerExpected
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57 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:
No Monday numbers yet?
3518
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It will need better than 50% to stay in the race, but better than 50% is very likely
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49 minutes ago, Geo1500 said:
Schools are closed hence the performance could be boosted
Yes we know schools are closed. All taken into account already
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13-13.5 would be fine for 700 target but it’s not gonna be that high
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12ish would be fine, suggesting expected drop in 40s for this week
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4 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:
$15M Monday for Deadpool trust the process
It’ll be below 13 lol.
15 would be a crazy hold, sending to something like a 120 week and TGM dom (not happening)
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42 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:
The Avengers - 65M DOM + 117M OS + 13M China = 195M WW admits
Age of Ultron - 47M DOM + 112M OS + 37M China = 196M WW
I have about 5M less than that for TA DOM.
In any case, China does make things a bit tricky. Leaving China aside for now:
TA 3rd DOM, 4th os-c, 3rd WW-C
AoU 7th DOM, 10th OS-C, 6th WW-C
For DOM nowadays that’s 815-685, OS-C 1.1-850, WW-C 2.1-1.9ish. With Geomean of ranks ~5th (720), 6th (1B), 4th (~2.05B). Doomsday should probably be able to perform at least 700+ DOM 900+OS-C 150+China given where various markets are in moviegoing and 2026 atps.
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11 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:
Half of Avengers movies are below 1.7
You know what years those came out, right? Matching TA or AOU success/admits is 2B+ now
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29 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:
Oh it was a comment about how long IO2 would be in the Top 10. The films I foresee outgrossing IO2 in the near future are Avatar 3, Doomsday and Secrer Wars.
Oooh, right. I was thinking of those as the same since JW is currently 10th DOM and OS, forgot 8th WW. Agree with your list
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6 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:
Why?
I mean why would it possibly be below that. It’s avengers
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On 7/26/2024 at 9:00 PM, Cooper Legion said:
Looks like maybe 240->690 or so to me
One shot, one kill
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3 hours ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:
If it beats Jurassic World WW then IO2 should remain in the Top 10 til Avengers Secret Wars in 2027. I'm assuming Shrek 5 doesn't quite match IO2.
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Doomsday should clear 1.7 eassssssssy
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INSIDE OUT II overseas weekend grosses
140.0M | weekend 1
167.8M | weekend 2 [372.6M] |232.6M week
108.0M | weekend 3 [545.5M] | 172.9M week (-25%)
080.9M | weekend 4 [685.7M] | 140.2M week (-20%)
049.6M | weekend 5 [776.9M] | 91.2M week (-35%)
036.5M | weekend 6 [849.2M] | 72.3M week (-21%)
023.4M | weekend 7 [893.0M] | 43.8M week (-39%)
929.3 | OS-J 924.3 | 30.7M week (-30%)
OS-J if it continues dropping ~30% will add ~71.6M for 995M. Japan may be ~25M. 1B almost assured at this point, may bump JW out of OS top 10 by a hair just like DOM
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Yeah some of the best standalone marvel movies have solid romance components. And Wanda/Vision stuff was some of the best parts of CW and IW despite not taking much runtime. Regardless of protagonist’s gender (or that of the love interest for that matter) it’s a relatable way to quickly create emotional investment, show more sides of the characters, and add different kind of stakes than “87 trigillion people will die.”
When executed decently, of course.
It’s a bit of a lost art for them now, but it will be important for FF so we’ll see
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Back to school shifts the grosses weekdays to weekends more than really hurting weekly gross, I wouldn’t worry about it much. It ends with us and aliens will both squeeze screens a little, then it’s largely free sailing for two weeks including Labor Day re-expansion/bump
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13 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:
Which option is correct?
A. Inside Out 2 > DPW > Jurassic World
B. Inside Out 2 > Jurassic World > DPW
C. DPW > Jurassic World > Inside Out 2
D. DPW > Inside Out 2 > Jurassic World
E. Jurassic World > Inside Out 2 > DPW
F. Jurassic World > DPW > Inside Out 2
Put me down for D but these all have at least like a 5% shot imo which is unusual
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JW1 was a great surprise run of course but the reason it draws particular goal statements atm is being the border of top 10. If that changes people will talk about “can it pass DPW” more than “can it pass JW”
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5 minutes ago, Brainbug said:
You shall not praise me but praise the lord (JW) whos will and judgement i only preach.
And his will was written: "Any big blockbuster movie may gross as much as 600M, 640M, 650M, yes, maybe even 651M ... but not more. It shall not be allowed"Cmon, let me gross 653.3M, as a treat
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I expect IO2 and DPW to both pass it at this point. Small chance that IO2 does so slightly slower thus never tasting top 10, but more likely I think it will get a week or two in top 10, one of shortest stays ever. Should remain up in the air the order that all 3 finish for a few more weeks at least
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Weekday Numbers [Aug 05 - Aug 08, 2024] | Wednesday | 9.87M DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE | 2.64M TWISTERS | 1.83M DESPICABLE ME IV
in Numbers and Data
Posted
You don’t have to try to reason about why it doesn’t matter much. I don’t know why and I don’t care why. Important thing is simply whether it does or whether it does not looking at numbers. And there isn’t really anything in relative late legs of movies depending on release date to suggest that this is a factor worth thinking about. Maybe it affects like 1%, 2% something like that but reception and competition play a far larger role