Cooper Legion
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Posts posted by Cooper Legion
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Only briefly skimmed a little of stuff from when I was asleep but it’s pretty self-evident that both:
Way of Water OS performance was, once again, absolute insanity, particularly OS-C. Gross or admits doesn’t matter avatar is undisputed king franchisee of OS, and by kind of a goofy margin at that
Domestically its performance was that of a big movie but nothing particularly special beyond that. The amount of people it attracted to the cinema is at that “one of the bigger movies of a year” level not the “one of the biggest movies of a generation” level. And that’s true if you look just post-pandemic, let along bringing earlier years into it
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Maybe like 1.02+660 👀
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People get so weird whenever inflation is brought up, never ceases to amuse me
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1 hour ago, toutvabien said:
So... this has a shot at $1.3B???
Very likely
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24 minutes ago, Jaxon5 said:
I think 600m is just the new 300m. Amazingly, only Top Gun Maverick and NWH from that list sold as many tickets as something like Dead Man's Chest back in 2006
Equivalent to 300M circa 2000/2001, 400M circa 2009, or 500M circa 2019
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12 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:
I just realized Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) might actually be a good comp for DPW second weekend onward
Hmm, intriguing. The calendar lines up correctly in terms of Labor Day/return to school, and competition lines up relatively well too.
Gotg:
true fss 83.12M
d4-10 82.2M (~99%)
d11-17 46.15M (-44%)
after 111M (x2.4)
DPW:
~99M (+19% Gotg)
est 104M (+26.5%)
Quite realistically follow Gotg for ~57M //559
after that Gotg had insane late legs — x2.4 is avg ~29.5% drops, would give +137M //696M
more modestly perhaps x2 -> 559+114=673M
Overall I would guess that the gotg1 offset week straight comp will overestimate for a while but it’s definitely a useful comparison to keep an eye on and see how much it’s sliding (or not) as we get more data rolling in
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3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:
250-275
Rest I am okay with.Hard to see it below 300 for me with 2025 atps and historical franchise admits
Sure poor reception of jw2&3 will hurt some but being new trilogy (kinda) should insulate some
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JW4 375
Superman 400
FF 450
Av3 550
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Over Barbie is pretty much gonna happen at this point
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17 minutes ago, baumer said:
Those were all 2nd Saturdays for them?
Yah
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30 minutes ago, baumer said:
So for some reason I can't find the dailies for past movies on box office mojo. Can someone give me a comparison or at least something that I can see for myself in terms of movies in the summer on their second Saturday and what their increases are?
The only ones that I know from memory is when Crystal skull came out in 2008 and it's Saturday increases we're typically in the 50% range.
I can't see how Deadpool and Wolverine would increase that much on a Saturday and so that's why I'm asking you guys if you can help me out?
What about Barbie or Oppenheimer? What was their second Saturday increase? Anyone who can help me out much appreciated.
AM&tw +38, love and thunder +34, FFH +36 (D12), AM1 +36, gotg1 +38, bb:RoD +42
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4 minutes ago, misterpepp said:
Not to get technical, but I think this doesn't apply to domestic since it's still entirely owned by Paramount stateside, no? Unless we're including all Disney-involved-in-one-way-or-another movies, of course.
Yeah the wink there is since both claims are kind of dubious/messy. My simple understanding of the titanic situation is that it was fox produced and os distributed but paramount DOM distributed, which is enough for me to previously count it as a fox movie and a paramount movie and now as a Disney movie and a paramount movie, when talking about dom. Also some who would argue that even if you do count it as fox it’s kind of a sketchy include as a Disney movie on top 10 since it made enough enough for top 10 before the acquisition
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10 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:
It's a pity there's basically 0 chance that IO2 and DP&W leg it out past 674mil to pass Titanic, you'd see Disney controlling 8/10 spots in the top 10 with 1 of the other 2 still being MCU...... just for the hilarity of that stat
Cope #1: Top 10 first runs
Cope #2: Titanic is Fox is Disney now
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5 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:
Let's say I have a virtual gun towards your virtual head, over or under JW DOM ($653M)?
Over
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If it does 100 here (which is right around where I have it ballparked) then pretty pessimistically could drop 50% next week and avg 42%s beyond that for 621M and optimistically could go -43 into avg -37 or so would be 687M. Ranges on both of those determined from past MCU summer, multiverse saga A or better CS, and DP1/2
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27 minutes ago, Ryan C said:
Honestly, even though that movie made a lot of money and is still impressive looking at what it did considering it was a Doctor Strange sequel, it's kind of embarassing now comparing it to Deadpool and Wolverine's numbers right now.
The fact that Multiverse of Madness fell 67% in its second weekend despite releasing in May (not as frontloaded a month as July) and had literally no competition in its second frame shows you just how mixed at best the word-of-mouth was for that film.
It may have been an event the first weekend, but it wasn't the case after that. In Deadpool and Wolverine's case, it's gonna remain an event until it's box office run is over. That's why we are even discussing the possibility of it matching or exceeding what Inside Out 2 will do domestically to become the biggest film of the year.
Even DS2’s OW was pretty disappointing tbh
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4 minutes ago, Ryan C said:
How funny is it that people were declaring 2024 to be a terrible year at the box office because of the impact of the strikes and yet we may have two movies (and released by Disney no less) that will or might outgross the entire domestic run of Barbie ($636.2M) from last year.
I'm not saying these two movies singlehandedly saved what was a bad start to the year and a terrible May, but I just want that to sink in. Insane!
Yeah as one of those ragging on the year earlier, Jan-may were indeed BLEAK but IO2+DPW doing like 1.3 DOM when it could conceivably have been like 750 is a pretty real boon
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Yeah 3rd weekend looking like 50s, I would guess Ryan take it over Blake. Almost certainly falling to Romulus
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4 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:
u/BOfficeStats is saying $89M+
I mean this is based on just th and history, and even still you can see that smh is a bad comp and the rest are 96+ 😛
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15 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:
@Cooper Legion so what is the second weekend looking like? $100M+ or still just $90M
Safest guess is probably like 96-100 but you must decide whether to dream with your heart
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Feeling like 5385 is a good number today
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Not too late to have Josh star as Superman in The Flash (2043)
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“Any cbm can be nitpicked” is kind of a weak sauce copout. Some of them have really glaring logical/plot issue that are apparent on first watch and require major suspension of disbelief, and some are very well put together with only minor issues that you have to go actively digging for. And that correlates reasonably (though not perfectly) with reception
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Just now, ThomasNicole said:
She does chase them as a freakish version of Terminator which is so much better than whatever else people expected tho
She has some badass moments but that’s not exactly a good trade for the character assassination.
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Weekend Numbers [Aug 02 - Aug 04, 2024] | Actuals | 96.81M DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE | 22.80M TWISTERS | 15.45M TRAP
in Numbers and Data
Posted
Sue, ballpark. Maybe like 445/500/665 at a glance