Cooper Legion
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Everything posted by Cooper Legion
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Thinking 13-13.5 smile falls to ~10M and Halloween falling to 9-10
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Kills was 46% with much same release model, less preview loading (~21% vs 27%), and marginally better reception, so 49% here wouldn’t be much different. Needs to miss 40 to qualify as a truly dramatic SatSun crash
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Anyway, 5.4+14.5+13.5+7.1=40.5
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Lol, fair enough. I agree with the basic point though — given the circumstances anything clearing 40 seems pretty solid
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… what? BOP: 49.5 BOR: 47.5 Dergy avg: 45 (looking good team)
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Just gotta hope wonka has enough preaching about silly climate change analogies I guess.
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It’s possible to give everyone a 0, everyone a 100, or everyone like a 79 if you wanted to, right? Could set everyone’s guess to .79 and the “actual” to 1. Maybe the beat approach in terms of not disrupting comparative historical stats for the wknd is to give everyone an avatar score = to the avg score for the other 9 movies this wknd? But if that’s comparatively a hassle on the backend all 0 or all 100 seem fine — very unlikely to report.
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My nonsubmit apparently registered as a 0.00 when I thought it would be .01, saw someone else in the same boat. I assume it’s all getting washed away by act of god though
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A) yes B ) the “seems like they just” is a pretty decent way to go about it all things considered
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No official word yet that I can see from admins — but no one has spoken up on favor of actually playing Avatar and the post where I recommend that all guesses+actual be set to .01 has a few likes, so I’m just leaving mine blank.
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)
Cooper Legion replied to Cap's topic in Numbers and Data
It's my understanding that the incentives are generally understood to be the exact opposite -- better to say "well great, it overperformed" than make something look bad. -
The wacky thing is there seems to be kind of a negative correlation for DC — in addition to the 4 you mention, BoP had good reviews+Poor BO, JL, SS, BvS, MoS had weak reviews+solid BO. Wonder Woman is the clear outlier with great reviews great BO. The sample size is pretty small though, so this is on the level of “mostly a coincidence.” BA will probably go for meh reviews+meh BO rather than meh reviews+high box office.
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Some have good scripts, some have great scripts, some have bad scripts, some have atrocious scripts
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Was thinking 65ish from fundamentals, these reactions do seems a bit weak so maybe it’ll get a rotten. Not damning but not going to boost either.
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I propose that we just set everyone’s guesses+the actual to like 0.01 but if people want to treat it as real on the off chance it keeps 2 indies reports like $20,356 or something I can roll with it.
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Very early since they screened it at a festival!
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Also 4/6 isn’t “almost every” to begin with.
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I mean, Ryan Coogler’s track record is waaaaaay better than the phase 4 track record.
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Upcoming wk: HWE Smile Lyle TWK Amsterdam DWD Barbarian Avatar Bros TGM?
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)
Cooper Legion replied to Cap's topic in Numbers and Data
I think some were below 60 on V2 for a good chunk of the run up to that tbf. But BA wouldn't need to outperform bot tracking by 50% to top smile, it would need to outperform by like 100%. That indeed, does not and will not happen. -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)
Cooper Legion replied to Cap's topic in Numbers and Data
BA OW might not even be half of smile DOM. Will have to see impact of HWE -
TA more than a decade ago though
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)
Cooper Legion replied to Cap's topic in Numbers and Data
@Porthos Today the total sold for comps is much higher than yday+daily sold. Did you accidentally pull t-9 or something? -
Probably just 18.5 then, rip 19 trend
