So basic expectations settings:
NWH ~18M prev sales first 24 hr, ~51M prev
DS2 ~ 9M prev sales first 24hr, ~36M prev
Geomean of these would be 43M prev, roughly 12.5M 24hr. 2:1 weighted toward DS2 would be ~11M, 40.5M.
I would like to see at least 40M for 220-240ish, so will be looking for $$~+20% of DS2 with anything more being gravy. On optimistic side I think one could argue for matching DS2 x4 24:final, in which case 10M/+10%ish could be okay. Then throw in the longer window here than for those 2 and even par with DS2 first 24hr could easily turn into a top 5 OW.
So:
<.75MoM24hr: awful
<MoM24 hr: unhappy
+0-15%: alright, wait and see
+15-30%: great
>1.3MoM24hr: spectacular