Cooper Legion

Sat admits at 3.25x is Sat gross of ~89% (using 3 and 11 ATPs). So ~.7+1.33+1.2=3.23/4. I also had sat at 3/8 and Fri Sun at 5/8 (pre-adjustment). I used a 20% 3Day penalty for cinema day as a result of quite similar assumptions about sat admits and fri/sun lost business. Didn’t even look at 2021 labor given the massive opener, pulled wknd vertical hold/wed vertical hold from 2018 and 2019. Ranged mostly from 120-150%, so used a fairly lazy 135%. So overall went with holds of wed*1.35*.8=wed *1.08. Minor modifications for genre, 3rd wknd rebound, pro forecasts, TCs. And since Invitation doesn’t have a wed vertical, grabbed horizontals from Ready or Not (labor 2nd wknd horror) and gave it a mild boost for R vs PG13.

Pessimism Legion strikes again.

Honk for fun stuff, save your derby

“Weekend 2463” Anyway this was a blast, definitely most fun week for me

3 flops in a row for the mcu, SAD. Save us Rya-Wan Cooglobi

Well, Sunday actuals were weak.At least it’s another top 2 for the collection. next wknd: NWH TGM Pets Train Invitation Beast Honk for Jesus Minions Thor Crawdads

True OWeek multi heading for 2.15ish. Think I forecast 2.1. Almost painfully normal run/finish.

Negative 1 dollar or bust. 100% sellouts every screen all day long

Next wknd will more than double this one in admits, so at least that’s something to write about.

Nobody hopped on labor after SC, even though they should have. So if this becomes a yearly back to school tradition it probably wont affect much.

Grebacio went even more pessimistic and probably gonna be rewarded with a close 2nd. They could take it if Sunday actuals are weak.

Great wknd. All I need is a weak train Sat

Yeah, well done. I can feel myself getting nerdsniped though, if you'd be willing to share the raw data I'd probably dive into some exponential and multivariate regressions etc.

WF 60 days isn’t for another 2 weeks, but it’s at 62.5/6.75 atm which is comfortably the 2nd strongest behind NWH in both. Avatwo also has very good metrics (64.5/6.5 t-121) but the shocking one imo is Gotg3 — 55/6.92(!) on a trailerless t-256.

These graphs are crying out for the OW to get logged. Your % of explained variance would probably improve a lot (though hard to eyeball the small OW dots with the current linear scale). It’s cool that you kept all of this though and yeah they definitely seem to have a decent correlation.

Had this one dialed in way out.

Fwiw, I fixed my train number from 5.5 to 5 and my lead fell by a full %. Then I updated some ests to my personal nums and got the % back. This would be the first time in forever my wr goes back above 25%, so 🤞

~1.8 true, like 6-7M? Small chance to miss 1st if something has a surprise hold. Say maybe 950k true, 3-3.5ish?

Why does this thread have 2 pages already. Seems excessive.

Yeah I have 5 4.4-5.4 and 4 2.4-3.4 Another pessimistic weekend for me, confident in dbs but not as much on train.

I had marvels and ant-man above my 300 fig as well. AQM1 ~400 adjusted, maybe 420 by then, 25-30% drop perfectly normal for a sequel though could do better for sure esp if reception is good and completion weak etc. 350 I think good for 5th, that doesn’t account for surprise breakouts (except insofar as “well hey maybe they’ll cancel with surprise misses” 😛 )

AQM2 I guess like 300M DOM, 1B WW assuming China? I could see that good enough for 2nd WW but more ~6th DOM.

I thought this wasn't as heavy handed with that as the premier actually. I liked it a lot better, mostly because we're getting actual present day plot instead of origin flashbacks. Blonsky was great.

New meaning for the thread title