Cooper Legion
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Everything posted by Cooper Legion
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Derby avg is a 45% drop though I went in on 42% and max is just -40
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True OWeek multi of next most recent schooltime non religious 10-40M OW A+s: Selma 3.2x (days 8-11 were mlk wknd though — adjusting for that crudely, 2.9ish) Lone Survivor 2.5x (also 2nd wknd mlk, less impact though) Best man holiday 1.85 (??? — maybe somebody can explain the atrocious legs on this A+ to me, small movie before my time) 42 2.65x
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All did it off >5x — though only one this century, and barely at that. I believe that’s comprehensive— the only other films to open above 10M in Sep and leg >5x look to be Last of the Mohicans (75M), Sneakers (51M), and Sea of Love (58M). Edit: Missed one. Did it off just 3.5x so of course not good enough to TWK
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Going optimistic thanks to reception, let’s say: 1.7 5.5 7 5.5 // 18M true weekdays 7M // 26.7M cume, 25M true OWeek weekdays/true OW there is ~39%, vs 36% Ford v Ferrari, 38% Love Simon, 41% Harriet. Then True OWeek Multics: FvF 2.9x LS 2.66x Harr 2.72x FvF had the most holiday help here, with thanksgiving on day 13. Most had more competition than TWK. 2.6-2.9x range let’s say would take it to 67-74. Throw in some variance on the OWeek and 60-80 it will be.
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Woah, got there. Still, doesn’t look like it’ll premier 20.
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)
Cooper Legion replied to Cap's topic in Numbers and Data
Releasing Nov 11 -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)
Cooper Legion replied to Cap's topic in Numbers and Data
Eternals comp -
Fwiw I thought you meant domestic. If will still easily clear 50% of CM1 WW, but the ratio will be much worse than domestic thanks to losing markets (China, likely Russia, possibly Middle East) and likely awful ERs. CM1: DOM 427M OS 701M OS-C-R 527M here I think a fair medium target would be 350 DOM (-18% nominal, -36% admits) 350 OS (-50% headline, -33% same markets). 700 is just such a bummer low num though, so I will hope for great marketing and reception for 450+500 or so 😛
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Gotta do over L&T or flop
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LMAOOOOOOO
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It’s always been 09:00 Eastern, 3 hrs before fml, which the internet informs me is currently 14:00 Irish. It’s possible that the Irish time deadline changes by 1-2 hrs at various points in the year for daylight savings reasons, but from a quick google I think that 5 hr diff applies for ~50 weeks of the year, changing to 4 or 6for a while in nov&march.
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I think Pearl and See How They Run will round out the top 3, or at worst 4, in which case they both sort of need to be included. Next 7 I would go: Barbarian Top Gun Bullet Train DC Pets Brahmastra The Invitation Minions
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)
Cooper Legion replied to Cap's topic in Numbers and Data
Right. I mean there are always the meganiche artificially constructed records -- "strongest imax sales for a movie named don't worry darling" or whatever -
See how they run just had a pretty solid UK debut I believe? Clerks will probably burn off a lot on tues-th and I wouldn't include it regardless of wideness.
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None of them have a bop long range num. The numbers thinks they're all wide but they're sometimes wrong. Maybe @katnisscinnaplex will be able to run a check today
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Pets doing over 21x Wed is full insano mode. Maybe weekdays were depressed by cinema day burning demand, or something?
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A1 atp was very inflated relative to the time though. More than A2 will be. So inflation A1 tickets to A2 tickets will probably be less than 2009:2022 general atp growth, not more.
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Sure, it shouldn’t be held to the standards of spidey or DS2 — but held to th standard of Ragnarok is more than fair. The OW was worse than Ragnarok when it should have improved. Good-not-great run would have looked like 160->410 or so perhaps.
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ERs are getting really hit right now tbf. I guess if the DOM:OS-C-R-middle East ratio is similar to Rag that actually represents doing better OS in real terms.
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340 ain’t what it used to be. Going to end ~16% down from Homecoming in admits and 27% down from FFH. Most relevantly it is ~11% down from Ragnarok admits, when at minimum it should have increased. I agree that Marvel should take xmas, but can keep the mid summer slot too, it’s also good.
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Domestically it did poorly. Internationally it did similar.
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It was always quite evident that DS2 had more potential as people were expecting more of an event. The potential for Thor to win was if it got good reception, after DS2 stumbled.
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Yeah. From 1.3 True Friday Sat should go at least 1.5 and then sun 1+. Frankly I am deferring a little to @Sandro Mazzola with that one who is well versed in horror. I think more like 10-10.3 maybe. It will have a modestly better true IM than some summer comparables because it’s schooltime now. Might be a little too low on kids Sats, but the difference in pre-labor Sat and post-labor sat was it that dramatic in the few years I checked.
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Me. No, those are all quite reasonable. I would say some of the previous nums I found were quite eyebrow raising 😛
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Cinema day taketh and cinema day giveth
