Cooper Legion
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)
Cooper Legion replied to Cap's topic in Numbers and Data
Variable price ng is good and sensible. Asking the same amount for Brightnurn as for Endgame is a good way to have deadweight loss on both. Demand responsive pricing more efficiently makes use of auditorium space and benefits both viewers and exhibitors if done well. If this turns out to be a de facto price increase to desired movies, them previous prices were too cheap. If previous prices were too high, it should end up as a de facto discount on less desired movies. -
Really just going around in circles now. I want to summarize my thoughts concisely and move on: 1) It’s seemed (to me and others) for quite some time that this would likely do 110-140ish range. So I totally understand and respect the perspective that it is meeting reasonable expectations and is therefore not a disappointment. 2) Those expectations came from a place of “Batman’s ow historically are huge, but reboot fatigue, brand damage, shifting marketplace popularity etc etc will be a drag on it and lead to a weak-for-Batman OW.” So even if hitting that range isn’t a surprise it does serve to confirm that those factors are really at play, and they did lead to a low-for-Batman OW. So I totally understand and respect the perspective that meeting reasonable near-term expectations is disappointing in the historical view (just like say FFH). Even if we reach strong factual agreement (which I think we are able to — and largely have) people can keep talking past each other and disagreeing about the best philosophical/emotional framework for interpreting those facts. I don’t want to get on people’s case for saying “these historically low for Batman numbers are just what I expected so I’m not disappointed at all.” But I also don’t want to see people criticized for saying “these historically low for Batman numbers are disappointing to me even though there were good reasons to expect them.” Live and let live.
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Well, I think the relationship between expectations and disappointment is a lot more complicated than that. You update your expectations as you get new info. Sometime your near release expectations are below a more zoomed out historical view, sometimes they are above it. For instance, consider something which some years out you might have expected 220M for but when you get close it looks more like it will do 150M. Then it does 160M. We can say that this actually beat expectations (focusing on near term ones) or that it fell far short of them (focusing on farther out ones). You’re probably left with a sense of “this hit my expectations but I was expecting it to do disappointing.”
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Yes. When non-IP have really strong BO results I say that they had really strong BO results. You don’t recall me saying this much because… nonIP very rarely has really strong BO results! I’m not saying that at all. But if nonIP success looks like “80M on a small budget” then it’s pretty obvious why studios and big stars aren’t excited to chase that dragon and would rather gamble of dormant IP. Can’t get a huge ROI with a large talent spend… and even when you do make 100M net revenue off 20! net costs it’s a great ROI but all involved would rather have spent that time making 300M net revenue off 200M net cost for a far worse ROI. You don’t just need some proven original hits, you need some real name recognition, buzz, and marketability from them. This is definitely the best way to pursue original ideas at the moment but there just aren’t enough directors like that around for it to generate much annual supply, not to mention that sometimes the directors want to do other things.
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That MoS opening is huge fwiw. 12th biggest ever. People seem to love making comparisons to nominal ow grosses of aughts and early 10s movies when they want to make a 2020s ow look better than it is. Doesn’t really work imo, just looks silly. This has absolutely no factual basis, so keep up the good work I guess. This is absolutely correct but it seems completely incompatible with saying that I am downplaying the movie 🤣 This actually does not make any sense. Bias means being off in a consistent direction. If you make reasonable forecasts that are born out by reality+don’t give overly rosy commentary of them, that is just called… being objective? Man, the version of me that lives in your head rent free sounds very wrong about this movie. You are definitely correct to be dunking on them. Might want to pay a little more attention to whether they’re related to the version of me that lives in reality though.
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)
Cooper Legion replied to Cap's topic in Numbers and Data
Saved by the 7/70 line once again, eh old chap?