Considering the presales it racked up in dec and that the 3rd biggest other movie that will will be like 4M, there’s every reason to give it a pretty wide release.
Now that the possibility March extended release seems dead, I think April 29 is a pretty decent date to push NWH for a final hurrah, playing into DS2 anticipation.
This is one market where NWH really did get savaged by Batman. 210k weekend ~300k week. Will need 23% drop from here for NTTD, probably dead without expansion.
No proper holiday mon until Memorial Day Weekend in 12 weeks. Easter in 6 weeks will have a boosted Mon but it might not even make 100k there since it will be after Morbius Sonic Dumbledore.
I think it should be able to pick up:
13th Sat
13th Sun
14th Sat
Pretty easily. If things get wild (well, medium wild) can possibly nab 1 more sun, 1-2 more Sat, and maybe 1 more Fri.
Sunday hadn’t happened yet, Friday and Saturday have. They can still get tweaked a little vs estimates but it would be more in the range of the updated fri figure, perhaps a few dozen k at most. So it could settle at like 4.55 perhaps but 4.6 very little chance.
That’s sort of what I was hoping for since it demonstrates how expectations fell over time with the so-so sales. It is barely short of recent expectations at all, bit further from longer ago ones.
Yeah, SC is a great calendar comp with better WoM and a lower ow. It pulled a true FSS multi of 3.24x. Assuming 131.6M for Batman (roughly 31.5 sun) that would take it to 378M for 2.87x. So realistically I’d say 2.5-2.8x probably the range.