Cooper Legion

FWIW, top adjusted R openings (this is using an est 2024 atp so it differs slightly from the-numbers which is using a (slightly off) 2023 atp): DP1 170M Reloaded 169M (easy 200+ if Fri open) DP2 153M It 153M POTC 150M Hangover 2 120M Amer Sniper 117.5M Joker 116.5M 200+ easily possible for R nowadays if excitement is there (as we may see in July)

The Fall Guy made 6.47M in the last week, a 25% drop from the prior Th-Wed week (excluding mons because of memorial funkiness). Needs 33.2% drops on avg from here, should be very doable. Even if you pencil in 40% vs bad boys (which seems pretty pessimistic) it could get there with 28.3% avg drops after. I would say more likely to fall in the 95-100 zone than 90-95

So how are things actually turning out relative to this May scenario: TFG 28/95 (bang on) Apes 58/170 IF 34/120 furiosa 26/32/75 garf 24/31/100 Pretty good forecast

To be fair it will underperform

Lowest post memorial weekend winner since Backdraft in 1991 with 9,118,395 (~24M adjusted to 2024 atp)

Think about it porthos. If a movie was going to be good, they would just get everything perfect on the first take 😤

The heck was going on here

35 seems more realistic than 30 for now imo but the very early start for MCU does leave things a bit uncertain

Yeah I feel I am being a bit optimistic penciling true FSS at 4.2x Th for DPW. For IO I think it can crack 10x, so just huge huge gap there already being factored in.

Not really? I mean, the “being good” part, yes — but for the “looking attractive to mass audiences” part the proof is kind of in the pudding

Movies succeed if they look attractive to mass audience. Being very good is certainly one way to help with that but they’re only loosely correlated

As usual with economic stats, good to be careful with interpreting 2020 or throw it out entirely. In this case, of the 2.2B gross for 2020, ~1.8B is from Jan/feb/March pre-shutdowns, so while I wouldn’t take that number super at face value it’s probably reasonably close to meaningful — if you really dig deep and made a bunch of sophisticated tweaks to further correct it I doubt it would change by more than a few %.

Notably, Here are those prices in 2023 dollars (adjusting Dec of year to Dec 2023 in all cases): 2023 —10.84 2022 — 10.88 2021 — 11.19 2020 — 10.81 2019 — 10.93 2018 — 11.12 2017 — 11.16 2016 — 10.99 2015 — 10.92 2014 — 10.70

Lots of people are out of school this Thursday, hurts IM relative to full schooltime same as summer does

Tbf that first sentiment was never more than people massively wishcasting with no grounding in reality 😛

Hmm, I think you’re drawing a good distinction here, but I want to expand on it a bit further. A mini studio that reliably pumps out 20M grossers on a 2M budget may be very satisfied with their ROI and content to make such movies forever — but it doesn’t contribute enough in raw $ for exhibition to pay for wages rents etc. Not a sustainable model in equilibrium. A megablockbuster flop that does 400M DOM but loses money from bloated costs and poor os performance is a massive boon for theaters while it’s out — but it’s not a sustainable model either because studios will not continue making such movies if they’re too consistent money losers. Only way for things to work out is with movies that have good ROI (so studios will continue making them) and high raw gross (so venues can continue above water on various fixed costs). That was achievable easily enough from 1950-2020, but for now… we’ll see

I mean the only problem with this explanation is that both sentences are unambiguously factually mistaken

IO sales seem… fine. Not clearly indicating doom — also not clearly forestalling doom. Just going to have to wait til the end to find out exactly to what degree it breaks like a relatively original animation vs a sequel animation in a franchise with a bunch of fans. I can see why people who might have hoped for a more obviously strong start would be nervous getting “not that, but if you wait and see could still work out fine” instead.

They can afford it as much as they ever could because it costs the same it always has We should not attribute a change in one variable (theater admissions) to an unchanged 2nd variable (real ticket prices)

No, since this is absolutely nonsensical when real ticket prices are basically unchanged for the past 40 years

... yes? If the biggest movie in a particular period had been bigger then the negative record which is true in reality might not be true in that counterfactual. I mean -- that is definitely a true statement to make but I dont know if it implies what you're hoping to inply here 👀

I mean, look -- this is the 10th month in a row with no releases making the Dom top 100 (or even top 115). Now I'm not saying you can't celebrate the solid singles and occasional double for what they are, but that is a pretty dang historically notable drought of actual big hits no matter how much you much want to stick your head in the sand about it Very ironic name btw

Ignoring? Wouldn’t say that. I just don’t think ~25M admits for the single biggest movie in that period is very positive. Biggest opening weekend was the concert movie. They aren’t all as bad as May but it’s variations on the same theme 🤷‍♂️

Yeah, it’s important to take a step back and look at that bigger picture. There just wasn’t anything that audiences were especially interested in in May

Extraction 2 😤