Cooper Legion
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Everything posted by Cooper Legion
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
And… it isn’t. May I interest you in a little known technique called “being realistic?” -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
Being overly optimistic isn’t really going to help with toxicity though? At least, I can’t see a causal mechanism there. If a movie is heading for a number that would be disappointing, then better to set low expectations in advance and let people recalibrate gradually vs being shocked and disappointed all at once? -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
Well, an IM under 7 seems very reasonable based on the fundamentals, and the MTC Th vs Fri sales reinforce that. I have to imagine we would see the same in Philly, Sacto, Utah, etc if people went digging for Fri sales. So it’s mostly the preview where I’d hope to see your regions miss. And looking at other data seems quite plausible — depending on how optimistic you wanna get with comps -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
Well then. Hopefully your areas are outlying on the low side. -
Free Guy | 20th Century | August 13 2021
Cooper Legion replied to Box Office Hit's topic in Box Office Discussion
We’re at the point where I won’t be surprised if they are my favorite two movies so far this year and I also won’t be that surprised if they combined open below 40M. -
Free Guy | 20th Century | August 13 2021
Cooper Legion replied to Box Office Hit's topic in Box Office Discussion
👀 -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
The MTC2 JC comp Th+Fri is probably a 28M weekend or so. It seems very optimistic to me for a DCEU movie to have as much PS ramp up from here as a family actioner, but crazier things have certainly happened -
No Time To Die | October 8 2021 | 82% on RT | RIP Sean Connery
Cooper Legion replied to Neo's topic in Box Office Discussion
65/170 -
I was reasonably happy with how my plan to set a low and clear personal meltdown bar in advance for BW weekend worked out. It meant I didn’t have to recalibrate “is this good, or is this bad, or is this terrible” etc etc every time a new number rolled in (although it unfortunately it did end up going below my meltdown bar and being a horrific crumbling flop Anyway, I think I’m going to do the same thing for this movie so I can just keep calm and carry on. And my meltdown/crumbling/flop bar will be: $21,144,800
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
Actually, MK could be a solid comp. Went back and checked. At Sun before release, MK had twice the tickets for Fri at MTC2 that TSS does for Th+Fri. That was for non summer too. Could be worth digging around for run rates, but when Menor says Fri looks bad I really want to emphasize that it looks baaaaaaaaaaaaad. -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
TSS and MK are both R? But it’s not obvious that TSS can beat MK’s OW -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
The entire board does revolve around this thread when you weight by importance 👀 I’ve been trying to lower TSS expectations elsewhere in part to avoid a meltdown, but I suspect there is a level of performance around Alice Looking Glass that will cause things to get rowdy no matter how much they’ve been lowered. -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
The standard showings are getting really concerning at this point -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
I think 100-110 ish without PA, so maybe 120-130ish without PA or any pandemic? Hard to say, may be a little too optimistic, but 110+ should be pretty comfortable. Hard to say whether PA or MAX is hurting movies more, so sure, maybe add 40-50% as a first approximation?