Cooper Legion

The numbers deadline has would be pretty atrocious… but not nearly as atrocious as some of the takes on the last few pages 😆 There’s definitely some hint of delta in these numbers imo, but like — not that much? If the top 4 do 47M, vs reasonable expectations of what, maybe 56M (16+16+12+12) that’s far less of a miss then we saw on countless weekend pre-covid. Shang-Chi is in a very worrying spot, but this storm should have pretty much run it’s course by Oct or so. A couple things might go day and date (though several already were) or make minor shuffles, but this is hardly spring 2020 redux.

??? Did you even read the discussion you just walked into? Scroll up half a page.

Sure, the range was a little wide. It was 38% over the midpoint of 22.5. Not the sort of miss that Candyman fans would be looking for here by a long shot. I don’t know why people love the “BOP missed big on Space Jam” talking point, it just doesn’t stand up to cursory mathematical scrutiny.

Space Jam long range forecasts: Jun 18 — 15-30 Jul 2 — 15-30 It missed their high end by… 3%

Where do you see that? Did it have an absolute number for previews or just relative to each other?

SE and Old probably 15-17ish, BW 12 and SJ 11. Shouldn’t be that close after all.

Looks like a good weekend coming up, I predict 120k Sat 110k Sun based on PS. From there it should hit 3M as 55% drops would do it — although if Escape really hammers it could still miss.

I think it’s unrealistic to expect a “normal” trailer time from the MCU now when they’re doing like 7 movies in a 12 month period here. They probably don’t want to have trailers for like 4 different movies out at the same time they’re trying to actively promote a 5th on recent release. I don’t expect to have trailers for more than 3 or so at a time. This one should be coming soon now that Loki is wrapped up though, imo.

I’ve always felt like this looked pretty fun. I hope it can surpass those modest expectations as the reactions suggest.

Great release date 👀

The only strong looking product between here and Shang-Chi has always been just TSS imo. And that’s got some baggage, though I can’t claim to have expected sales this low at this time.

The BO is less than I was hoping for from presales of course, but pretty strong considering the amount of at home viewing and that virus conditions have backslid instead of continued to improve to a complete nonissue.

This doesn’t really make sense, the drop is from PA.

Tomorrow looks like it should be fairly flat for BW, maybe -35% weekly. Should make it to low 3M range unless BB2 takes a bigger bite out of it than I’m expecting.

Answer in spoilers: and @cannastop found another of equal length: There could be more out there, @MrPink found Jurassic Park 2, Planet of the Apes, Rush Hour 2, American Pie 2 in 2001. Pie was 21st, so extreeeeeemely close.

I’m seeing: May 26-28 — Last Crusade record Jun 2-4 — Crusade repeats on top Jun 9-11 — Star Trek V opens on top, #notarecord Jun 16-18 — Ghostbusters II, record (by like 1%) Jun 23-25 — Batman, record by like 35% Jun 30-Jul 2 — Batman repeats on top Which is definitely, ahh, super bonkers wild. Never seen 3 record breakers in 5 weeks before and safe to say never again. But even if Star Trek V was a top 20 it would only be 3 consecutive.

We’re kind of running out of steam here, so here’s a little trivia. I just, by happenstance, found a stretch of 4 consecutive weekends with top 20 OWs (at the time). Can anyone figure out what it is, or find an equally long or longer streak of top 20 opens?

What’s this now? A 0-day streaming release from the MCU set the post-pandemic OW record and will get the post-pandemic DOM record as well, while making a pretty penny on DTC and dealing with the beginnings of a new wave? Yep — must be the early indications of marvel fatigue

600 sounds about right. Global conditions were a lot better for it then, although it would do like 100M less domestically.

BW’s 2nd weekend is 150% of its 1st Sun, basically identical to SMH and same ballpark as AM&TW. FFH probably would have done the same with a Fri release. The drop looks awful because of how the OW was structured with most of the gross on Th and Fri, but there’s no real sign of PA impact beyond that, or reception issues that would influence the rest of the run.

Yes. The previous one did 60M. The one before that was high 90s but still dropping from the afterglow of Walker’s death.

What excuse? Normal number for it in non covid circumstances.

Also worth nothing that while a 30M debut for Space Jam is over expectations, not even by much. 30 had pretty consistently been the high end of BOP’s range. And it’s pretty awful compared to the budget.

So in reality 190+190 then 👀

Have hunch we will see 3rd wknd stabilization at home and abroad. 2nd weekdays will be an early indicator for that, so we’ll see soon 🤞