Cooper Legion

Transformers killed Spiderverse, it’s joever

You heard it here first folks, 2/3 of Oppenheimer’s tickets will disappear when the wave-function collapses

I think it’s fair to say “the reboot is already locked in so the BO doesn’t matter much to long-term anyway.” But why not “the reboot is already locked in so the reception doesn’t matter much to long-term anyway either?”

👀

Only got partial PLFs this weekend and should see big Father’s Day business, I am expecting low 50s for now

Hi. It’s me. I’m the “arguing vehemently against mid 70s or low 80s and saying more people should be aware they probably aren’t reasonable possibilities at the moment” it’s me. Edit: FWIW about the larger “is he rest of summer doomed?” stuff, I feel like the middle of Indy U has actually been…pretty fine? Like it could still do 10.5*8.5 or something, maybe? Partially that is just higher uncertainty from being two weeks farther and genre differences, but still.

50/50 on 64M

Indeed it is But the copy paste ease 😛 Maybe I’ll play around with red and blue or something if you prefer but just wanted to get it out there for posterity today. I have a hard time seeing a CBM match Transformers IM slightly deeper into summer and I think Transformers being EA heavier was weighing on the t-7 pre/fri ratio much more than final. MTC1 fri is not as bad as some regionals p/smaller chains though, it is true. Overall I would be mildly surprised to see fri crack 1.7x

Elemental is hard to say even being relatively close to release now since as a low hype original animation is has pretty low sales. But vaguely we are expecting 2.5-3.5ish previews and 10-14ish IM so say 30-42ish Flash is looking like 9-11 and maybe 5.6-6.8 for say 56-68 (though some are expecting higher than that). Since people seem to like the grid, here’s my t-7 thoughts in grid form: Legion Flash OW ForecastMatrix Thursday Preview Gross Range $8.85 $9.20 $9.55 $9.90 $10.25 $10.60 $10.95 $11.30 $11.65 Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM) 5.4 $47.79 $49.68 $51.57 $53.46 $55.35 $57.24 $59.13 $61.02 $62.91 5.6 $49.56 $51.52 $53.48 $55.44 $57.40 $59.36 $61.32 $63.28 $65.24 5.8 $51.33 $53.36 $55.39 $57.42 $59.45 $61.48 $63.51 $65.54 $67.57 6 $53.10 $55.20 $57.30 $59.40 $61.50 $63.60 $65.70 $67.80 $69.90 6.2 $54.87 $57.04 $59.21 $61.38 $63.55 $65.72 $67.89 $70.06 $72.23 6.4 $56.64 $58.88 $61.12 $63.36 $65.60 $67.84 $70.08 $72.32 $74.56 6.6 $58.41 $60.72 $63.03 $65.34 $67.65 $69.96 $72.27 $74.58 $76.89 6.8 $60.18 $62.56 $64.94 $67.32 $69.70 $72.08 $74.46 $76.84 $79.22 7 $61.95 $64.40 $66.85 $69.30 $71.75 $74.20 $76.65 $79.10 $81.55

That eternal question of “good sign in the 2nd derivative” vs “but it’s still a bad first derivative moving average” 😛 Fwiw I don’t really have a gut sense of which description is more accurate either.

Still getting some sheets back end up to do this more conveniently for each region each day, but here’s the last few days for my “size-adjusted avg comp” for Sacto: T-12 9.16M T-11 9.28M T-10 9.3M T-9 9.55M T-8 9.6M T-7 9.4M T-6 9.5M So today was basically fine under that view — in fact things have been pretty stable, which is the hope. Fwiw, without Shazam (the biggest size outlier): T-12 9.61M T-11 9.64M T-10 9.58M T-9 9.72M T-8 9.71M T-7 9.31M T-6 9.3M

Flash+elemental at like 95 wouldn’t be very surprising though I’d bet over at 1:1. Indy+Gilman I would out in 90s for now but totally doable

You guys know that like 40% of the country supports Trump right? I think the fervently anti-woke crowd have gone down a very silly rabbit hole but it’s weird to pretend that appeal among that demo is commercially irrelevant nationally.

Still got it ~55, fwiw

If that is your boring flash value you can probably enjoy an exciting weekend 😛 Elemental will be interesting I feel like with such small original animated property even the t-7 cume and pace don’t provide all that much info on where it will go. I could imagine anything from like 2*11 to 4*13 or something.

Hmm, not sure about that first paragraph. I would think that when studios are seeing good returns on their money they put more $$ into production and when things have been going poorly they scale down? Maybe it really is fairly inelastic though, new execs also chasing some new dubious potential hits

It matters to the theaters when studios don’t make a sequel though. I agree with the narrow point but money loser 100Ms are in that “give a man a fish he’ll be fed for a day” zone.

A high portion of a days eventual total sales being sold on the same day

61/53

Solid for RotB, spectacular for tracking thread 🥳

If you’re referring to the flash range you might be in for a trip if you read the last few pages

The size adjusted avg from those 4 minitc2 comps is 11.1M this update … down from 11.7 3 days prior. Optimistically perhaps it will stay steady from here, but more likely continue trending down an uncertain amount.

Yeah that is why I’m helping you out by letting you know how incredibly misleading the straight comps on those 2 dc movies are given the size and pace mismatch

Feeling like 6x Th for RotB and Spidey

No more like 9-10 from minitc2