Cooper Legion
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Everything posted by Cooper Legion
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)
Cooper Legion replied to Cap's topic in Numbers and Data
A majority of these comps are DC already, so not sure how much you can really adjust up to account for Sacto DC underindex — in fact the numbers from only the 3 Dc comps is 8.96M! Definitely feel that 9.0 is more likely than 10.0 -
contest The Flash — Domestic Opening Weekend Contest!!
Cooper Legion replied to XXRDJisDoctorDoom's topic in The Speakeasy
54321000 -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)
Cooper Legion replied to Cap's topic in Numbers and Data
Also EAs hurt slightly (though at their size it won’t be a big factor) and most importantly Fri presale comps looking soft (though presales from beyond th always have to be handled with care and taken with some large error bars) -
Weekend Thread | Transformers $25.6M FRI
Cooper Legion replied to Issac Newton's topic in Numbers and Data
No one has star power. Comedies are dead. 10 sounds perfectly reasonable to me (not to say it can't go higher, just ballpark) -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)
Cooper Legion replied to Cap's topic in Numbers and Data
make funny GIFs like this at MakeaGif Legion Flash OW ForecastMatrix Thursday Preview Gross Range $8.50 $8.80 $9.10 $9.40 $9.70 $10.00 $10.30 $10.60 $10.90 Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM) 5.4 $45.90 $47.52 $49.14 $50.76 $52.38 $54.00 $55.62 $57.24 $58.86 5.6 $47.60 $49.28 $50.96 $52.64 $54.32 $56.00 $57.68 $59.36 $61.04 5.8 $49.30 $51.04 $52.78 $54.52 $56.26 $58.00 $59.74 $61.48 $63.22 6 $51.00 $52.80 $54.60 $56.40 $58.20 $60.00 $61.80 $63.60 $65.40 6.2 $52.70 $54.56 $56.42 $58.28 $60.14 $62.00 $63.86 $65.72 $67.58 6.4 $54.40 $56.32 $58.24 $60.16 $62.08 $64.00 $65.92 $67.84 $69.76 6.6 $56.10 $58.08 $60.06 $62.04 $64.02 $66.00 $67.98 $69.96 $71.94 6.8 $57.80 $59.84 $61.88 $63.92 $65.96 $68.00 $70.04 $72.08 $74.12 7 $59.50 $61.60 $63.70 $65.80 $67.90 $70.00 $72.10 $74.20 $76.30 Edit: FWIW you can take the penultimate values on each direction of each axis as my 80% credence interval -
Weekend Thread | Transformers $25.6M FRI
Cooper Legion replied to Issac Newton's topic in Numbers and Data
Hell yeah baby, thank you Kandahar 🤣 -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)
Cooper Legion replied to Cap's topic in Numbers and Data
Today! Those aren’t particularly meaningful terms (different people might interpret it to mean a bottom 2% scenario vs a bottom 0.2% scenario which would be a huge diff in nums presented without any diff in actual projection!) but taking things from the more extreme end, 8.5*5.5-> 47 & 12*7.1 -> 85 CBMs in established universes about previously established characters (and *especially* multiple previously established characters meeting for the first time) can play very differently than pseudo first entry GA popcorn action stuff -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)
Cooper Legion replied to Cap's topic in Numbers and Data
None of these are exactly great comps in a traditional genre/size/reception similarity sense, but purely in terms of final:t-4 I guess something like: TLM Dune A2 Batman true th some will be better or worse depending on various regional idiosyncrasies -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)
Cooper Legion replied to Cap's topic in Numbers and Data
Gut check: shouldn’t be nearly this bad, QM actively tanked from the rotten rather than just plateauing at a low level Actually checking some data: the comp vs QM should increase some 40-50% from now til finals but it may still appear to trend badly in various samples going by the straight comps since people have mostly been using optimistic ones which give higher straight comps that will come down -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)
Cooper Legion replied to Cap's topic in Numbers and Data
Sacramento has looked 8.5-10ish since over a week ago. Obviously I understand people hoping for that to increase, but at the same time there was no particular reason to expect it to increase. It will probably underindex a little but if you look at all the other data that’s been posted 10 would be a clearly above median outcome from here. -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)
Cooper Legion replied to Cap's topic in Numbers and Data
New in bold -
Weekend Thread | Transformers $25.6M FRI
Cooper Legion replied to Issac Newton's topic in Numbers and Data
I’m the only person at this RotB showing, a rare opportunity to do a live commentary in the spoilers thread? 🤔 -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)
Cooper Legion replied to Cap's topic in Numbers and Data
RIP to my young homies -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)
Cooper Legion replied to Cap's topic in Numbers and Data
All those schoolchildren will be so happy to get a day off before returning to school on June 20 -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)
Cooper Legion replied to Cap's topic in Numbers and Data
High praise -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)
Cooper Legion replied to Cap's topic in Numbers and Data
I’d say like a 15% chance to go 54 or below vs .01% for 100M -
Weekend Thread | Transformers $25.6M FRI
Cooper Legion replied to Issac Newton's topic in Numbers and Data
But really we know that the other 9 movies barely matter in the face of all important Kandahar -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)
Cooper Legion replied to Cap's topic in Numbers and Data
We’ll get Sunday updates throughout the day but the people on a night schedule will have it be more applicable. The last of those should be Porthos is ~20 hrs or maybe a bit sooner. For morning update people like Kantmiss you wouldn’t see the effect of a Sunday night increase until the mon update. -
Weekend Thread | Transformers $25.6M FRI
Cooper Legion replied to Issac Newton's topic in Numbers and Data
I suspect Fast is in for a proper gutting -
Weekend Thread | Transformers $25.6M FRI
Cooper Legion replied to Issac Newton's topic in Numbers and Data
I mean it’s not even clear Flash will open 50% over Elemental. Like 40 vs 58 would be perfectly reasonable. Even if it comes up low for elemental and high for flash for more of a 25/75 scenario Elemntal will be much closer in the amount of screens taken, just with worse PSA. The blackening will come to squeeze screens a little as well. That said there are a good amount of screens to give up from Machine, About my Father, Fast X, Mario, Boogeyman, Mermaid etc -
Weekend Thread | Transformers $25.6M FRI
Cooper Legion replied to Issac Newton's topic in Numbers and Data
Could easily be within 10% not sure exactly how you want to define “close” -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)
Cooper Legion replied to Cap's topic in Numbers and Data
New in bold -
Weekend Thread | Transformers $25.6M FRI
Cooper Legion replied to Issac Newton's topic in Numbers and Data
I made this joke on telegram days ago, great minds 😎