Completely rule out? No. Theoretically things can always go very good or very bad on the final week.
But I don’t see any particular reason for a CBM with much higher start and fairly sluggish pace for weeks to suddenly switch over to some GA heavy buying pattern at the last minute. It would already need to beat my expectations by some just to hit 65, right now thinking like 54-70 say
I think it’s good to have that lower comp without a crazy final week like spiderverse. Sure it’s not actually heading for 8 in your sample but it’s not actually heading for 12.5 in your sample either — some bigger and some smaller gives a good range.
Would not be surprised if transformers plays a bit stronger to middle America (relatively of course) and beats comps a tad/come on the higher end. I went with 8.4 (including previews) while pricing on Mon and still feeling around there
We already know that it’s not. SV2 had spectacular trending for s medium size CBM though.
Theoretically any day it could just start to kick up pace a bunch for unclear reasons but the best opportunity to change trajectory was probably 2 days ago and doesn’t really seem to have happened.
Certainly a good first wed/first mon. Should head for 60-65 wknd from there which had been my expectation from the beginning — a solid but not crazy hold.
I broadly agree but even then — with this universe being rebooted anyway I don’t think it makes a big difference for the new one whether this is received glowingly or just eh. Likewise beetle and aqm2 — obviously to a degree like, you want to have better movies than worse ones, but the stakes for future content are very very low.
Being the 3rd best superhero films of these two months probably isn’t doing the the BO any favors (especially with alleged plot similarities to the one it’s two weeks from). I feel like this might have done better at Labor Day.
Oh well, probably doesn’t matter much at the end of the day.
Anyway not reading those 10 pages I slept through but mid 70s is firmly medium. Shouldn’t turn anyone away but probably won’t draw in many fence sitters. Let the chips fall where they may.