Early deadline preview nums are completely useless compared to the tracking thread. They just went with a conservative floor and the real value are in the “+”
We’ve had about a month of BO summer tbf — Gotg3, f10, and Tlm are pretty much locked in. But none of them have flopped or anything, so yeah I dunno about “summer doomed.” SV2 and MI7 should do quite nice as well.
Pretty expected for both — Gotg3 holding well with a likely 6th best 4th mcu wknd (behind BP nwh Ta IW aeg). F10 dropping steeply but not catastrophically on track for drop in 60s
Breaking records in 80s not always worth that much in 20s — especially when you’re a supporting character in a B lister’s movie. This was always a bit of a weird bank shot to try to sell “The Flash” as a backdoor Batman thing. If you really want people running out for old Batman, probably needed a Batman movie.
I’m not sure if Batman would hit even 5x in summer though. It’s so much easier to kids, teens, even adults to actually cram those 2/3pm starts that we now have relative to the schoolday Ths. Plus some business gets diffused to following weekdays. If Batman was to open on a normal midsummer wknd maybe it breaks down like:
400 Dom
161 true OWeek
27 previews
39 fri
39 sat
33 fri // 138 (5.11x)
I roughed a lot of that out so don’t take any specific number too seriously — just to say that summer Th are much heavier denominators when it comes to FSS/th, and preview th aren’t immune from that especially with modern start times.
Yeah. It’s summer, DC established character/nostalgia fan appeal, with EA, and sales show massive preview loading at the moment (even relative to usual for CBM first days).
That said, the sun is Father’s Day and the following mon is Juneteenth, so I think it can maybe increase.
Something like
12.5
19
21.5
22 //75
Thinking a 5-6 IM for now, reception would drive to higher side or perhaps even 6-6.5 zone but really struggle to see more.
You can’t completely determine the outcome of course but you can develop a pretty healthy sense of the general range — and the “how” of it is by comparing to lots of other movies 12 hrs vs how they finished