Wknd hold/wed hold for wknd losing most PLF/first big competition:
QM — 40/40=100% (3rd wknd vs Creed)
WF — thanksgiving affected
L&T — 48/49= 98% (3rd wknd vs Nope)
DS2 — 50/71=70% (4th wknd vs TGM)
NWH — xmas affected
Et — 41/38, but correcting for vet eve more like 41/43=95% (3rd vs GBA)
SC — 47/66=71% (5th vs V2)
FFH — 47/59= 80% (3rd vs TLK)
CM — 50/53=94% (3rd vs Us)
IW — 47/59=80% (4th vs DP2)
Rag —38/47=81% (3rd vs JL)
DS1 — 41/49=84% (3rd vs FB1)
AM1 — 51/59=86% (3rd vs MI5)
AoU — 50/46=109% (3rd vs fury road/pp2)
F10 is going to be ~110% of the preceding weekend, whereas for some of the bigger hits:
TGM 400%
V2 690%
TLK 425%
DP2 200%
JL 165%
FWIW Gotg3 itself was ~290% of SMB’s preceding wknd
Pessimistically I think you could look for an 80% (64% wed hold -> 49%, 31.7M) but I am expecting more in the ballpark of 87-92% (64% wed hold ->34.5-36.5M).
Gotg3 sun has actually matched IW-with-first-week-lopped-off pretty closely so far, which went
62M wknd
4.63M
6M
4.2M
3.44M (-18 vs DP2 previews)
29.5M wknd
F10 is no DP2 but even still that Wed x would take 4.55 to 32M