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Joyous Legion

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Posts posted by Joyous Legion

    MLK Weekend Thread | 3-Day/4-Day Estimates: Mean Girls 28/32, Beekeeper 16.8/19.2, Wonka 8.4/10.9, Migration 6.2/8.3, Anyone 6.9/8.2

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

    Unrelated, but how much would have this movie done in normal times (OW/DOM/WW)?

     

    Kristen Wiig Ww84 GIF by Wonder Woman Film

    Depends on the release date. Before COVID it was scheduled for June 5 2020, so assuming that I would say perhaps 110/275/550? That’s a very crude estimate at this point though, I bet I said something in the thread for it like 3 years ago and I’d put more trust in that num whatever it was 😂

    MLK Weekend Thread | 3-Day/4-Day Estimates: Mean Girls 28/32, Beekeeper 16.8/19.2, Wonka 8.4/10.9, Migration 6.2/8.3, Anyone 6.9/8.2

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    5 hours ago, grim22 said:

    Last Jedi was the last movie before The Colour Purple released during the Christmas holidays to get an A Cinemascore and not get a 3x multiple from OW.

     

    5 hours ago, JustLurking said:

    Technically speaking TCP is over 5x its OW 😉

    An excellent point.  
     

    TLJ did 2.1x OWeek whereas TCP will miss so much as 1.45x — Jedi redeemed by facts and logic

    NEW YEAR weekend

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by Legion Again

    3 hours ago, Porthos said:

     

     

    Reasonably sure you're misinterpreting Legion's subtext here. 😉 

     

    (which is fine as I think the folks who left reactions on Legion's post misinterpreted it as well.)

    Smh kids these days don’t even know their 40 year old political ad references

     

    I think lemon was just talking about me though 😛 

    • Like 2

    Christmas Weekend Thread | Xmas Day #s - Purple 18.1, Aqua 10.6, Wonka 10.3, Boys 5.7, Migration 5.4, Ferrari 2.9 | #BlackGirlMagic dominates the charts

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by Legion Again

    23 minutes ago, M37 said:

    I actually think you’ll come out ahead on the legs value (I was ballparking before having delved into data), but will still take the over on the $113M total

     

    Will know better by end of the first week 

    One claim I’m relatively confident making already is that the midpoint will be closer than either of our doms. Another W for wisdom of the crowd aggregation 😛

    • Like 1

    Christmas Weekend Thread | Xmas Day #s - Purple 18.1, Aqua 10.6, Wonka 10.3, Boys 5.7, Migration 5.4, Ferrari 2.9 | #BlackGirlMagic dominates the charts

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by Legion Again

    4 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

    Domestic total probably finishes closer to Legion geomean ($90M) than M37 geomean ($142.8M)

    I’m inclined to agree for now but I did put the dividing value right there for reference 😛
     

    I def was worse on prev and OW so if dom does work out it’ll be thanks to IM and legs

    Christmas Weekend Thread | Xmas Day #s - Purple 18.1, Aqua 10.6, Wonka 10.3, Boys 5.7, Migration 5.4, Ferrari 2.9 | #BlackGirlMagic dominates the charts

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by Legion Again

    54 minutes ago, M37 said:

    Day 1 forecast you say? Hmmm

     

     

    I'll let you figure out the geomean of those ranges

    James Franco Flirt GIF

      Legion Day 1 M37 Day 1 Halfway
    Th 3.674234614 4.472135955 4.053600464
    IM 5.477225575 6.123724357 5.791460926
    OW 20.1246118 27.38612788 23.4762687
    Legs 4.472135955 5.215361924 4.829472806
    DOM 90 142.8285686 113.3780013


     

    👍

    • Thanks 1

    Christmas Weekend Thread | Xmas Day #s - Purple 18.1, Aqua 10.6, Wonka 10.3, Boys 5.7, Migration 5.4, Ferrari 2.9 | #BlackGirlMagic dominates the charts

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by Legion Again

    20 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

     

    Completely unrelated but. . .

     

    you said 3.5 --> 20 --> 85 :hahaha:

     

    tumblr_n3mci9MIxA1roja8qo1_500.gif

     

    /s (I don't care it was close enough anyway)

    I said 3-4.5*5-6*4-5, jury is still out ;) 

     

    Those geomean to 90 which I still think may be within 15% or so which would be pretty good for a day 1 forecast 😛 

    The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Legion Again

    And a quick check in from me on AQM Sacto after porthole noted it as an overperformingnmarket:

    11 hours ago, Porthos said:

     

    Quick and Dirty Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom Sacramento Report [T-4]

    930/16554 (5.62% sold) [+60 tickets] 98 showtimes

     

    1.03911x TSS: at T-4                   [4.82m] (adj for ATP differences since 2021)
    0.49311x Black Adam: at T-4     [3.75m]
    1.50485x Shazam 2 at T-4         [5.12m]
    0.20857x AtSV  at T-4                [3.62m]
    0.42350x The Flash at T-4         [4.11m]

     

    Size Adjusted: 4.7M

    Geomean: 4.25M

     

    Down from:

    On 12/15/2023 at 3:07 AM, Porthos said:

    For what it's worth, Aquaman 2 is doing relatively well in Sacramento:

     

    Quick and Dirty Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom Sacramento Report [T-7]

    759/16797 (4.52% sold) [+52 tickets] 101 showtimes

     

    1.46525x TSS at T-7                   [6.79m] (adj for ATP differences since 2021)
    0.54331x Black Adam at T-7      [4.13m]
    1.51800x Shazam 2 at T-7          [5.16m]
    0.25058x AtSV at T-7                 [4.35m]
    0.43772x The Flash at T-7         [4.25m]


    Size adjusted: 5.3M 

    Geomean: 4.85M

     

    Suggests a likely finish of ~3.5M from Sacto as well imo (split the difference and about 4.5M now, down .6 in 3 updates with 5 to go (obviously change in comps isn’t linear with number of updates but often these perform surprisingly close to that)).

    • Like 3
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