Cooper Legion

Fun times for the derby You should play

No, this is what happens when people (Sony) stop caring about developing a connected universe and want to make a rushed nonsensical cashgrab in their own sandbox.

That has not been my impression 🤷‍♂️ But if so, good 👍

I am expecting 36-40 atm fwiw, if it hits the high end I will sound even more impressed.

Yes, this is good relative to pre-pandemic numbers for Bullock or comedies. What I think a lot of people try to dance around is that the pre-pandemic numbers for these things were happening at the same time as the increasing blockbusterfication and IPification that people love to complain about. Making a 2 ROI on a 100M total spend is nice but it’s not really going to displace the recent chasing of 1.5 ROI on 500M total spend. I think it’s absolutely correct to view this as a good opening and an over performance against expectations. But like I said originally — these numbers being an overperformance demonstrates the weakness of the base case. If people want to see that trend actually reverse, what we’ll need to see is not the occasional overperformance but for the whole reference class to get to a point where these numbers are more like z=0 than z=1.5

I am a little surprised, but not concerned. Probably just indicates we hit the ground running and then get propulsive pacing like IW.

Ah. Well, I think those posts about solo were probably... completely right, though? Like what happens if you market Solo starting very far out -- you lose more money as it does similar nums on a higher marketing budget? Lose more money as the same marketing budget has less material near release and it makes slightly less?

I mean... will it a little or will it a lot? I'm not saying they are extinct, just don't expect a renaissance based on this. We haven't had a movie like this in quite a while. The results seem more like "okay, we can do some more of that" than "oh my God, we've gotta do a lot more of that." Again I feel like of bad going in circles with what people have heard from me before, but some of the reactions on the past page or two seem more like wishcasting than sober analysis.

That’s exactly what I’m saying. Just, y’know, both words there are important to what gets greenlit.

Going by the Thor timeline, September

Terrible news for DS2

Don’t want to become too much a parody of myself, but let’s keep things in perspective. The fact that 30s is great for a movie like this is not very great for the prospects of Hollywood execs chasing a resurgence of movies like this.

Pretty surprised to pick up the max on City and Sing honestly. Quite plausible to me that both go over my nums.

Yeah, but the fact that there are several movies this year where you wouldn’t have such a reaction to 1.5 kind of reinforces the point that 1.5B isn’t a high enough threshold.

Looks like Dumbledore has some surprise competition to be the Dark Phoenix of April 2022 I will watch this contest with great interest.

It becomes kind of a funny psychological game though — if you’re going to open full day Th, why not just open like Fri noon? Because you want a higher reported OW for deceptive headlines or course. Why not Wed at 6 to burn off more megafans in PLF? We are heading there, and the 6 hours wed+all day Th+fri will all be “Friday.”

Speaking purely subjectively, if JW3 hits 1.55B, or an MCU this year gets a China release and does 1.55B, I am not going to have the same “oh my god this is historically huge” reaction as with say TDK or TS3 hitting 1B. I really do need to see a leading 2 for that at this point (though NWH counts since it’s an honors 2.3 or whatever).

Yeah it’s interesting to look at the history of the number of movies past a certain threshold. Doesn’t proceed as steadily as would be convenient. While I note that the number of 2B is similar to the number past 1B a dozen years ago, we also know that we got a bunch more from 2011-2015 — and in the next 5 years I bet we see 1-4 new movies past 2B. The big difference is that China was a hugely populous emerging market at the time and there is no equivalent now — if anything the decline of CBO, especially when it comes to HW, will be an artificial headwind on nominal WW gross growth instead of an artificial tailwind. Though the early 2020s has unusually high global inflation, vs the unusually low global inflation of the early 2010s So is 2B the new 1B? Well, sort of. But also 1.5B is sort of the new 1B. Depends what you mean.

Oh yeah btw, I’m honestly not sure what you’re trying to wink wink at here 😂

If there’s no teaser by July 7 this thing is definitely moving.

The rule of thumb is indeed 2.5x production only, but the thing about rules of thumb of course is they are just rules of thumb. Doesn’t even take into account different revenue % from different territories, for one thing (teeing DOM heavy and very china light actually favors Batman there, it is definitely solidly profitable despite the low 800s likely finish).

So the same amount as we had 1B films in 2010. 2B has the same rarity and megahit status as 1B used to have, just a dozen years ago. In other words… 2B is the new 1B.

Eternals comp seems most appropriate now. Morb under LC 😏

Will Canada be reported?