Joyous Legion
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Posts posted by Joyous Legion
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Clint good, Kate good, Echo good, Yelena hype, show is really vibing for me. Easy top 4 of year so far, let’s see how we finish.
But most important part of ep (don’t click if you want to remain pristine for ep 4):
Spoiler[Man chuckles]
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13 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:
🤔
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2 minutes ago, john2000 said:
ww final prediction ? with china ? 👀
7 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:Under 1B WW Opening Week is reasonable.
USA - 280-350M
LATAM - 100-125M
Asia - 120-150M
ANZ - 25-30M
UK - 50-55M
Europe - let's see who is open till then, but probably 50-100M.
Total - 625-810M.
From midpoints of these I’d go roughly:
DOM 700
LATAM 250
Asia 300
ANZ 70
UK 115
Europe 180
Sum roughly 1.62, then China can be maybe 300? Not sure if there how many other territories will be going late or whether Middle East was rolled into Europe there
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12 hours ago, Maggie said:
GB:Afterlife behind GB 2016 again. Can it still beat its total? GV 2016 had some strong summer weekdays
Answer the call had 10M 3rd weekend 4.7M 4th, for gba currently projecting 11M and 6.6M or so, will help make up some ground vs summer weekdays.
Then ATC had 2.3 5th weekend and GBA will be about the same I guess as it loses all its screens👀
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Guess this can go like 3rd place 2nd weekend, 2nd place 3rd weekend? 1st place 2nd weekend if we go totally loco.
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16 minutes ago, Porthos said:
@Eternal Legion if you want the day by day OVERVIEW of EG, sure, I could do that. That's much easier for me to send to you. And much prettier.
Yeah, this is all I was after. Don't worry, I will slap a bunch of caveats on anything I output from it in true Sacto spirit 😛
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1 minute ago, XO21 said:
so NWH is the equivalent of No Time to Die in UK. *pandemic
If you mean that it will make the top 3, boy do I have a club for you 👍
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4 minutes ago, Porthos said:
Porthos would you be so kind as to drop a sheets friendly table of the Endgame Sacto counts? Would save me a little grunt work
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1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:
80 more shows added in Harkins. 400 total already. Final may be what? 700? 800?
Guess I am not doing this.
Yeah, we are in need of way more shows. I guess I am off hook for OD now
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22 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:
It will be better when they do it 3 times in a year in 2022.
"Do this shit"= 2B level of all markets normal. I think 0/3 2022, but if one breaks out will love it
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The floodgates are really opening now
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Pretty insane that MCU do this shit 3 times with 3 different movies 3 years in a row (excluding 2020 for obvious reasons).
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The normal price is much cheaper than a year ago in real dollars whereas the surcharge ones are normal, so really they are doing Talisman's preferred scheme. Thanks Biden
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I remember a few people started giving pace extrapolated for SC (compared to BW) and it seemed very sensible. A more involved calculation to be sure though.
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Here’s the club we’re talking about, for visibility:
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Legs will be inflated by holding back T&A+covid, 290*3.25 let’s getterdun
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8 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:
I was thinking that for regional comps, we may perhaps just ignore first day & see how it compares with other films in daily pace.
I believe 2nd day may still have some spillover, from tomorrow I guess it will be calmed down enough to start judging daily pace. I suppose it gotta mantain like 2.5-3x daily pace of Eternals, BW, etc.
23 hours ago, Eternal Legion said:Good news folks — we ended up with a better comp than we were expecting to have
Not to give too much extra work for people who are already doing much more than me, but I think a useful stat to incorporate for this one after things settle down in a few days and we switch to T- is probably the rate extrapolated T-. That is to say, if future tickets are same ratio of endgame’s future tickets as the last day (or 2, or 3) have been, how will it comp with endgame final.
I think D3 will also be spillover. After that I guess we can look at rate extrapolated from 2021 mcu but rate extrapolated Endgame and TROS seem more valuable from people who have the historical data to do it.
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23 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:
Taking in the new data we've gotten today, here is what I think of NWH (using the assumption it has WOM/reception at least on par with HC and FFH)....
The Rise of Skywalker OW = Done
Age of Ultron OW = Done
Avenger's OW = Done
The Last Jedi OW = Done
The Force Awakens OW = 95%
Infinity War OW = 85%
$275M OW = 70%
$300M OW = 50%
$325M OW = 30%
Endgame OW = 15%
Okay, okay, time to pump the breaks 🤣
… and join my club — IW OW should get us there, cmon 👀
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Ah, the Brazil thread is popping again. Now we just gotta get @pepsa and @Fullbuster in here for the OW
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What is a decent OW for WSS anyway. BOP has 14-22. It’s 21 on HSX. It’s priced around 16 for FML.
I guess anything above Gucci seems okay to me, but in the “okay given that my expectations have been in the basement” way rather than “this is a 100M film from a revered director and doing actual solid numbers ina vacuum” way.
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16 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:
Spider-Man: No Way Home Current Number, 24 Screen Theater, 530PM - November 30, 2021
31 show times, 2039 tickets sold
Comparisons to Final Preview NumbersEndgame — 50 show times, 3623 tickets sold out
Captain Marvel -- 30 show times, 1140 tickets sold
Infinity War -- 37 show times, 2449 tickets soldThe Rise or Skywalker — 44 show times, 1826 tickets sold
What in the fucking hell is going on in this theater. These are like 40M final comps
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30M previews is essentially impossibly low even for worst case
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I swear to god if the comps are thrown off by fucking NFTs I will… [redacted to avoid warning] Adam Aron
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
in Numbers and Data
Posted
You’re only 10% away 😛