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About pepsa

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  1. pepsa


    It calculated on a 3-day base taking Sat - Mon. This monday is a holiday and last weeks monday wasn't, thats why the jump is so big.
  2. The release slate isn't very crowded atm and it's still in the top 5 in most major countries where it still makes money but I do agree that if some movies have potential they might drop it.
  3. I agree with ur write up, but I don't get how you get the conclusion that $830m is the ceiling with out Oscar love. $774m atm an extra $31m Japan (like you predict) that makes $805m so you are saying that with a $11.4m WE (a $17.3m week) + $3.2m DOM We and a $4.85m week DOM) Even if it only does 2 times this WE DOM+OS-Japan we get $29.2m extra and that would get it to $834.2m WW and over your trashold. Can you explain where you think it will drop hard enough to go under a 2x WE multiplier? (Btw I am not trying to be mean in anyway, I just want to hear your perspective on it).
  4. Thats good to know ! So maybe 20% - 25% drop next weekend for japan. Next weekend will be interesting because if we have a sub 20% drop OS-Japan next weekend my $35m (OS-Japan) est might be way off.
  5. Np np, than I should just readjust my Japan numbers and this make $880m a little less likely. Still $850m is happening but $900m might be out of reach then. Also it had $6.9m week in Japan it does 'just 4 times' this we already got $28m 😛 But next week we will know alot more, because Titanic2187 might be completely correct and the GG buzz did affect this weeks gross by alot. If next weeks drop is less than 25% (OS-Japan) and 15% or less in Japan I think we might get to $880m.
  6. @titanic2187 Even if it drop 35% Week to week for the next 3 weeks and than drops 55% every week after that it would make $27.2m OS-Japan. So I think it will go a litle higher than that. Say about 35m, we have dom 11m seems fair. And if we take $60m for Japan we get an extra $106m and $880m WW. But maybe GG did have a big effect, still I don't think with it's tracking record that 3x OS weekend is overly positive. Japan is a wild card it would fade away but at the same time it also could keep going. DOM with an extra $11m seems a safe bet. EDIT: Japan was miss calculated, so $60m should become $40m so $860m WW, my sincere apologies for the miss calculations.
  7. I woudn't go as high either, I also don't think it will increase 6 WE in a row But yeah 3.25m seems reasonable, I agree with you. 550k admission, what is that in dollar? $6.5m - $7m? Checked it myself the av ticket price is $10.5 so about $6m for 550k admission.
  8. This weekend locked $850m tbh (unless it drops very hard next weekend), first I thought now way but I did some calculations taking in to account it's hold from the last few weeks and damm... So the range of Japan is $25m - $65m (from @feasby007) DOM it did an $3.5m WE so atleast 2.5 times this weekend OS-Japan: it did $11.4m this weekend, and $17.3m this week (Japan had a $3.7m WE and $3.2m weekdays) Taking in to account that last week most schools were still out the 34.1% is misleading and I think a better comparison is the week of dec 23th. when it did 26.7m for the whole week. So I would say the drop is more along the lines of 9.5% drop. The weekend drop this week was 10.7% WE too WE, however Japan did increase this weekend so the overall drop for OS-Jap would be more along the lines of 13%. (Japan only dropped 2.6%). So I don’t see why it would slow down in the next 2-3 weeks before the dvd release. So taking all this in to account I think it’s fair to say we will get atleast 3x multi from this OS WE. Using all this we get: Japan: $25m-$65m (with possibility to go even crazier but that’s not a likely scenario) Os-Japan: $11.4m*3 = $34.2m => $24m low-end and $65m optimistically DOM: 8m-16m (high end if it gets some Oscars and a re-expansion. So we get at least an extra $67.2m WW => add $772.7m and you get $839.9m as the floor (wtf??) If we take the high end it’s an extra $161m and we get $933.7m WW. Realistically I would say $870m to $895m is the range where it will land. EDIT: I have changed the Japan numbes, they were misscalculated and changed all the other numbers accordingly, sincere apologies for the inconvenience.
  9. With this weekends increase we can expect more than $50m more right?
  10. It's hold in Italy were almost flat, increases in Japan and Germany. So I do think this will get over $600m OS by next weekend
  11. BR going for 4M?? Only needs 6 more weeks of increases.
  12. True, still IW did have a great reception right? So EG OW will probably bigger but still the 3.5 multi might not be reached because of big demand on OW. Still I am hoping for 300m lc 😛
  13. pepsa


    I do agree that 1B isn't nearly as impressive as it used to be and movies now making that amount is more 'normal'. But come on, almost nobody expected AQM to do 1B let alone 1.15B. This movie would have been a success if it did 650m + WW. I mean GG was a great success for marvel, AQM 1.15B for a pretty unknown property especially where I live is INSANE. If you ask everybody In this forum to make a guess 8 months for its release it would have been more common to see $500m predictions than $1B+. This movies performance has been extremely good.
  14. Tbh there is more chance it does pass 850m than it not passing 850m atm

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