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pepsa

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About pepsa

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  1. Btw I get the same as you for DOM $ 512m -513m. And about me being right about that $565m OS don't bet your money on it 😛 Me and being right don't alway go hand in hand but I do think it should land somewhere in that area 😛
  2. You might wanna change your total by sunday for Bad Boys. It's sitting at 79.5m atm add atleast 7m for Wed and Thursday + $24m weekend estimation and you get $110.5m.
  3. Both TROS and TLJ had there MLK weekend in their 5th weekend (MLK fell on week earlier when TLJ was released compared to this year).
  4. When antman was released the MCU wasn't anywer near the powerhouse it was now (if was for AMATW). If the new SW movie does gross around 500m - 550m they can't do anywere near the current budget. The budget should atleast go down to 175m and 100 PA or so at max. No more PA + Budget of close to $500m a main movie. Btw doing as good as the worst MCU movies isn't good because that are 2 movies to the other 12 succesfull released around / after them. That said I think SW movies are still strong enough to pull closer to $800m - $1B with good quality and an intresting setting. (With like you said a lot of room to grow).
  5. Can I just say that I backed my point up with data to show that what I was initially saying wasn't pulled out of hat like @RockyMountain accused me of doing. Then I proved my piont with data, to show that what I was saying was correct, so wasn't spreading miss information. Gave him links so he knew I wasn't lying. And now I am a troll because I actually do research before saying something, gotta love the boxoffice forum 😛 @RockyMountain I didn't say TROS wasn't succesful (I explained what possible future problems could be if SW kept declining and if it stayed at 1B WW and kept the budget the same it was going to profit disney a lot), I just wanted to educate you about the fact that TROS WW didn't equal adjusted ROTS WW gross. Since when is correct miss information trolling?
  6. Looking at the china gross of the top HW movies of the year 2005: Kingkong: 12.7m HP: 11.5m Mission Impossible: 10.2m ROTS: 9.2m Chronicals of Narnia: 7.8m Mr and Mss smith: 7.5m War of worlds: 6.5m Madagascar: 3.4m Batman begins: 1m the other movie in the global top 10 didn't have data on China. Looking at what those equivelent movies did in recent boxoffice history: MI6: $181m (2018) Kong skull island: $168m (2017) Hp spin off: $86m 2016 and $57m 2018 Batman v superman: 96m (2016) SH now do around $130m to $160m average. So TROS doing under $50m is superbad , it's worse than a bad received HP spin off. TFA is probably the level of popularity that ROTS had in China.
  7. Okay I will give you the numbers, you are deliberatly ignoring the numbers because you are wrong. https://www.statista.com/statistics/264429/global-box-office-revenue-by-region/ The link might show a pop up with buy premium, you can just type the titel in to google and you will find the free link "Global box office revenue 2005 to 2018" Or go in private mode. https://deadline.com/2020/01/highest-grossing-movie-studios-2019-record-international-global-box-office-market-share-chart-analysis-2020-forecast-1202823471/ https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/ Check the links (it take 30seconds) and you will see these data figuers: 2019: WW $42.5B (11.3B DOM and 31.2B OS) 2005: WW $23.1B (8.8B DOM and 14.3B OS) So DOM market got 28.4% bigger and the OS market got 118% bigger. Now I chose to tone it down a bit because the groth is also because of more Local movies etc not just because of Hollywood movies. But you see your infation methodes makes only inceases it's OS gorss by 21% wilst you can clearly see you are pulling that out of your hat. @Barnack ROTS was actualy quite big in China, think it's was pretty high in the top list of that year.
  8. But what do you mean? If you compare the 850m to the 1090m of TROS, TROS makes more. If you adjust for inflation, it's: DOM: TROS: $515m ROTS: $530m OS: TROS: $575m ROTS: $752m - $870m (OS gross inflated 60% - 85% in the past 15 years) So worldwide Adjust (Btw adjusting wordwide is very inacurate bacause of so many factors but still lets do it your way) TROS: $1090m WW ROTS: $1282m - $1400m WW
  9. No it isn't, I just showed you ROTS was the number 11th at it's time and ROTS will end around 30th so there is a big diference. If you adjust for infation you also have to adjust for market growth world wide and that would put ROTS a lot higher than TROS.
  10. TROS will finish a lot lower on the WW ranklist than ROTS did. ROTS was the 11th biggest movie afer it's release (TPM was second vs TFA 3 and TLJ was 9th vs AOC 11th) So ROTS 11th world wide position vs the 30th for TROS is quite the drop off. For it to get back around the 15th place in the charts it should do around $1.3B WW atm. So TFA and TLJ did in line with what the Prequels did worlwide whilst TROS had a massive drop down.
  11. The problem is the split does tell something about were the movie plays strongest. And that is important for the future, because a better split would be Europe, Australia, NZ, Japan, DOM vs Africa, Asia, LA. Because we know that The first clump of markets are mature markets they don't see a lot of growth anymore. Movie earning a lot in these markets isn't bad but if your movie only plays in these markets and gets rejected by the other future growth is a lot harder to achieve. Take the SW movies, the split probably is 75% developed / 25%, it dropped in market were the year to year growth is over 10%. This isn't good because the markets were SW does do good are developed ones but there it's already crazy big, it's easily top 3 franshis atm in these countries so there is not much room to grow. Now this doesn't mather as long as you keep these big grosses and keep the budgets stable. And thats the problem, budgets have bloomed a lot more than that mature markets have grown so to keep the same expensive budgets overtime isn't doable if you don't have some growing markets to make up for the increase in budgets. And ofc it's easy for Disney to keep the budget at $275m and make $1B a movie but at that point it's not the top of the top franshises anymore but more like a Toy story level big (still big ofcourse, like top 30-40 WW big).
  12. @George Parr First off I agree with a lot you said. I do want to add that it's important for the next SW main saga (when ever that is) to stay around that $1B mark, if it continous to drop to below $800m WW it hard to look at it as big boxoffice IP anymore. So stabelizing is important. I am talking about the general market: the worldwide boxoffice was 42.5B this year, 11B was DOM and $31.5B oversea's. 20B of the OS gross was for Hollywood movies. So the split for the average hollywood movie is 35.5/64.5 atm. My point was that the importance of the Domistic market is smaller than it was 10 years ago, a lot smaller than it was 25 years ago and in 20 years from now it will be even smaller. In the last 15 years the Domsitic market increased 25% in size and the Overseas boxoffice grew a 120%. If a movie franshise relies to much on old market it's doesn't have a lot to fall back on if that one market abandons it. And in the future you will have a lot less new people you attract because you are limited to smaller amount of people.
  13. You do know it's a problem if you can't market your movies to the upcomming markets right? In the early 2000's there was a 50 / 50 between DOM and OS, now we have more of 33/66 30/70 and 10 -15 years from now it might be a 20/80 split. If you think it's good that a movie made X with out china is good, no it isn't. The only time the argument of a movie doing x with out china is valid one is when it didn't get released, so it didn't have a chance to reach those people. Otherwise it's just bad for you franshise. Btw a Main SW saga making less than solo SH movies isn't something great. SW universe is endless and hope we get some fun and creative movies. Not that 1.1B is bad, but the trend is. If the next SW's all do around 1B thats totaly fine, you tune the budgets closer to $250m and disney will make a lot of money from it. But 1b a movie with moderate toysalles is far from the powerhouse it once was (and still to some degree sertanly is).
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