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Joyous Legion
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Posts posted by Joyous Legion
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1 minute ago, VenomXXR said:
I changed my lowest IM to 5.75 but yes a sub IW preview number is still possible. I believe Porthos comps T-17 for both TROS and EG have it right at $39-40M. We will see. I will rectify all the numbers by the 13th lol
T-17 for TROS is comping vs like 5 weeks of cumulative sales, it’ll pop way over in tonight’s report 😛
Also I just noticed those nums I had above would make it the 2nd movie (after endgame) to hit 200 off 2 days. Would probably also claim 2nd fastest to:
250
300
350
After which it might start falling behind TFA
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15 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:
Encanto demo from the weekend finally posted by Deadline - most amazing skew since what, Black Panther, for a blockbuster?
"Of those who showed up for Encanto, they love it, which will help its buzz, with the pic’s PostTrak scores being 88% positive, 4 1/2 stars, and a 70% recommend for the general crowd with kids under 12 giving it 93% positive, and also 70% recommend. Encanto played best in the West and Southwest and saw a huge Latino and Hispanic turnout of 59%, with 19% Caucasian, 10% Black, 8% Asian, and 5% other. Suburban markets also posted good sales as is typical for a Disney release. Of those showing up 33% were women over 25 (who gave Encanto its best grade at 96%), 29% women under 25, 22% men over 25 and 15% men under 25. Forty percent of the audience came because it was a Disney animated title."
Holy smokes, the non Hispanic gross was like 16M
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21 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:
I’m still being cautious (relatively) for the moment. Looking at my number before previews locked ($189.5M) I would probably bump that up about $40M right now.
If you’re at 230, and you still don’t see IM below 6, that is sub IW previews?
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9 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:
So at this juncture, what would be (in your estimation) the absolute floor for NWH OW? Like, if it gets Eternals or worse critics reaction and a C Cinemascore.
Looking at all the numbers, I’m having difficulty seeing it below AOU OW even if the film is shit.
When reviews leak that there’s no T&A, everyone will cancel tickets+ sue for emotional damage, several billion dollar loss to become by far the least profitable movie in human history
Spoiler35 50 45 30 160 with truly toxic WOM
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The tele predict is immortalized via Porthos quote on page 1 and the OD will beat its OW.
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On 11/12/2021 at 6:26 PM, Eternal Legion said:
USERNAME PREVIEWS TRUE FRIDAY SATURDAY SUNDAY TOTAL Legion 36M 60M 64.8M 55.08M 215.88M Nothing is binding for two weeks, but I guess an updated look at where my head is at (I know previews are locked for contest purposes, but I’m going to keep updating that field to give a cleaner picture for the full weekend):
USERNAME PREVIEWS TRUE FRIDAY SATURDAY SUNDAY TOTAL Legion 48M 75M 81M 69.69M 273.69M
I truly didn’t realize what these were going to sum to until I did the sum at the very end. But it is what it is I guess 🤷♂️
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By the way I think that’s 33 submissions+one header row rather than 34 submission 😛
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18 minutes ago, JamesCameronScholar said:
Who predicted 15M?! That has to be a joke guess right?
I think it was Tele before we got into a zoomer vs boomer kerfluffle (point: zoomers) and they are now evidently deleted.
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17 minutes ago, Cap said:
This is why you all need to give me exact numbers when December 13 rolls around 😘😘😘
I think you misread — I am sad I don’t get to coinflip. I will make sure my Fri, sat, sun, and ow are exactly matched to pre-existing entries to maximize my chances 😘
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Some random stats ‘cause I can:
Mean — 29.7M
standard deviation — 7.57M
2 sigma range — 44.9M
geomean — 28.7M
geometric SD factor — 1.3225
geometric 2 sigma range — 16.4M to 50.2M
geo is really more apt for this context imo, and we probably won’t breach the 2 sigma ceiling. But if we end up 1-2 sigma (38-50.2) that still implies some likely systematic issues.
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6 minutes ago, Cap said:
36,000,000 36,000,000
Would have been fun to go down to coinflip, but alas
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5 minutes ago, Porthos said:
[60.88m]
Stop. The. Count.
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23 minutes ago, anti-Pedantic said:
Avenger: EG came out 26 April 2019 and John Wick 3 on 9th May and it survived and delivered enough.
maybe, History will kind of repeat itself.
Releasing day 15 is a lot friendlier than day 5
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1 minute ago, CloneWars said:
So, any chance Sony will announce what the first 24 hours of presales were like?
We won’t get a hard num, but fandango/deadline should do an “over tfa, 2nd beat ever, almost endgame” kind of article.
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Like 50 days vs 16 , but also SW vs MCU — TROS Sacto final was 2.4x D1. If NWH does 2x Day 1 we’re in the 40s 🤣
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Spider Monday turns out to be one of the best holidays of the year indeed, can't wait to celebrate in 2022 🥳
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11 minutes ago, Eternal Legion said:
Wise
The reacc is gold
Money is as money does, I didn't force WB to release M4 streaming on NWH's 2nd weekend 🤷♂️
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21 minutes ago, Blankments said:
Fwiw looking at the main Chicagoland theaters, it looks like the only PLF Spider-Man is losing to Matrix is a Dolby screen. All the imaxes are selling Spider-Man on the 22nd already; in addition to all the Dolby’s besides one
Wise
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1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:
In layman terms yes, in your pro math geo mean stuff I guess we wait.
Geomean goal will be lower than arithmetic, so it’s done
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1 minute ago, LPLC said:
it surely won't exceed TFA's opening weekend
👀
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1 minute ago, LPLC said:700M still seems to be elusive.
👀
SpoilerI mean, yeah, probably.
Probably
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1 hour ago, Eternal Legion said:
What a weak goal, why not endgame
Okay, okay, I’ll quit my meming… we want an Avatar club, right? Maybe a bonus from you @VenomXXR?
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3 hours ago, Eternal Legion said:
I agree with keyser — the endgame comp is better than TROS 👀
Good news folks — we ended up with a better comp than we were expecting to have
Not to give too much extra work for people who are already doing much more than me, but I think a useful stat to incorporate for this one after things settle down in a few days and we switch to T- is probably the rate extrapolated T-. That is to say, if future tickets are same ratio of endgame’s future tickets as the last day (or 2, or 3) have been, how will it comp with endgame final.
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4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:
We are way over any other movie, Endgame be very close.
Closer to Endgame than TFA, right? I just said I suspected as much on Reddit
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16 minutes ago, CJohn said:
Omicron will make sure 150M won't be touched. Remember when Eternals pointed to a 100M OW? Lol.
I’ll bet any amount up to $250 that it opens over TA if you wanna get spicy
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
in Numbers and Data
Posted
https://www.mediaplaynews.com/amc-theatres-ceo-we-broke-the-internet-selling-spider-man-no-way-home-movie-nfts/