Is pointing out that something doesn’t actually always happen one way really much of an “um ackshually”??? I don’t really think that’s how that phrase works 😛
I am sympathetic to the argument that this isn’t really a normal CBM in terms of genre and may not play as frontloaded. With that said it’s a very bad start. Might revise after 24hr nums roll in but now thinking maybe 75/190/600 or so
NWH pretty much hit what it looked like after D1. DPW did clear by ~ 20% but I wouldn’t say that’s significant really.
Maybe spiderverse, kind of forget what the start was for that though
Neither were gotg in 2014, or captain America in 2011, or thor in 2011, or doctor strange in 2016, or Shang-Chi in 2021, or so on and so on. Don’t really need much pre-existing popularity to open 100M nowadays as long as you’ve got a decent movie, good marketing, and not a big build up of brand damage (the DS2-QM stretch of fiascos is a bit faded now, as well as some D+ stinkers, and DPW has hopefully helped some). We’ll see in time whether they can deliver on the first two
I dunno, Incredibles 3? Here’s some that have done it adjusted (plus some close ones that will soon adjust to enough):
Rank
Film
Adjusted OW
2
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
326.7977391
6
Jurassic World
275.188393
7
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
272.4982205
10
The Dark Knight
245.1186201
13
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2
237.0359738
14
The Lion King
232.5956124
16
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
230.0606889
17
The Dark Knight Rises
224.555417
18
Incredibles 2
222.7955251
20
Beauty and the Beast
216.4412358
21
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
216.0155142
22
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
215.1458777
23
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
213.2186081
24
The Hunger Games
212.8984072
25
The Twilight Saga: New Moon
211.5921332
26
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
206.6532773
27
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
199.1855622
28
Shrek the Third
197.8756496
30
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 2
196.8920022
31
Furious 7
193.9798723
32
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 1
193.5104869
33
Shrek 2 #
193.2848908
I’ll take 2026 with:
Fire and ash
doomsday
animated sequel
wildcard
although I kinda hope doomsday gets pushed to 27 in which case 26 would be tougher (but doable)
This is actually a pretty interesting question right now. Here’s how I feel about 100M chances this year:
Joker 2 2/3
Venom 50%
Moana 2 70%
Treating those as independent, next 100M chances:
Joker 40/60
Venom 10/60
Moana 7/60
2025 3/60