Cooper Legion

I'm not sure exactly what calculation this is? I have 674 following the gotg calendar comp but it should hold poorer than that. Maybe 645-665 or so at this point

PTA drop for summer MCU on pre-labor day wknd: cap:tfa -24% gotg1 25% am1 -10% Smh -25% am&tw -13% ffh -10% bw -11% l&t -27% Usual relationship of better TC hold worse PTA hold, DPW likely a 90-95% TC hold 20-25% pta drop for overall 28-32% drop or so

Actuals will probably be 30-30.5 or so, so might be able to skate by with ~34% drop. But yeah should be expected more around 30% or a bit better. That would be a pretty typical drop for a well received summer MCU around late August, especially with no major competition/screen loss, coming off of losing PLFs this week, and more school these next weekdays hurting weekdays but shifting business to weekend (these are the typical dynamics that drive such holds in this zone of course, but just noting they apply here as well) Could creep into the 21-22 zone even depending on how thing play, or might drop a bit on the harsher side of possibility to like 18-19 which is still a solid shot to win the weekend

Next comes Tues > Sat

62M week (-~42%) 40% drops from here would add 93 for 690M. May beat that by a bit, still looking 700ish (+650ish)

I mean something like 661 I’d be willing fudge into the “or so” but I would be pretty surprised if it was closer to 665 than 660. That said at this point a lot depends on how much of a Labor Day expansion it gets which is always tricky to know for sure. It should be ~647M heading into Fri of Labor Day weekend and I’d expect ~10-12 after that looking at I2

Nah more like 655-660 or so

Decent chance DPW can crack 20. Could be close #1 race yeah

Budgets can’t return to 2014 levels in nominal. 160M budget from 2014 is equivalent of 210M now from inflation. Movies doing approx real performance of TWS would be looked at as big hits (unless they were event movies finaling there only because of bad receptions+legs) but what people have to realize is that matching TWS performance would be ~350 DOM low 600s OS for mid 900s. Doing low 700s isn’t similar to TWS it’s quite a bit worse. A bit better than Cap1 but closer to that than Cap2…

I mean it’s extremely likely to beat JW 4th weekend

INSIDE OUT II overseas weekend grosses 140.0M | weekend 1 167.8M | weekend 2 [372.6M] |232.6M week 108.0M | weekend 3 [545.5M] | 172.9M week (-25%) 080.9M | weekend 4 [685.7M] | 140.2M week (-20%) 049.6M | weekend 5 [776.9M] | 91.2M week (-35%) 036.5M | weekend 6 [849.2M] | 72.3M week (-21%) 023.4M | weekend 7 [893.0M] | 43.8M week (-39%) 929.3 | OS-J 924.3 | 30.7M week (-30%) 958.1M | OS-J 946 | 21.7M week (-29.3%) 983.8M | OS-J 963M* | 17M week (-22%) *using 21.3M for Japan and est 0.5M rise for actuals 30% drops would take OS-J to just over 1B. Say 1000-1015 most likely. Japan now thinking ~35-40M, for OS just shy of 1.05B. DOM still looking 655-660 or so, so I would take the over on 1.7 by a hair but under 2xIO1

Past summers with two big movies: 2018 — IW (if you count it)+I2 around 825M+740M adjusted 2015 — JW+AoU ~860+605 adjusted 2012 — TA+TDKR ~870+625 adjusted 2004 — Shrek 2+SM2 ~ 785+670M adjusted 1999 — TPM+Sixth Sense ~940+640M adjusted (first runs) 1996 — Ind Day+Twister ~770M+605M adjusted However, if you look at just meteorological summer (June+July+august) rather than BO summer season, literally none of those qualify. For that you have to go all the way back to the massive twin smashes of 1994 — The Lion King, releasing wide on Jun 24, made a massive ~845M adjusted first run, followed a scant two weeks later by Forrest Gump on Jul 8th with a staggering ~895M adjusted So we’re roughly running back the summer of 30 years ago but ~25% smaller

Yeah just barely

I agree that it’s playing much closer to pg-13 CBMs than something like Oppy btw US R rating is not that restrictive in reality unlike some other territories for DPW — people can take their 11 year old kids or little siblings or whatever if they want and a decent chunk of business is coming from under 18s. Not huge but it’s not a huge chunk for pg-13s either at the end of the day especially being an older franchise now with fans who’ve aged

I mean it will lose by 20% WW and probably lose DOM as well (by like 1-3%), what about that makes for “movie of the year”

Easy over

40m instead of 50 is same % as 160 instead of 200. It’s not a disaster or anything but there was plenty of reasonable info to base somewhat higher hopes on

Tbf clubs are not exactly supposed to be realistic

42 13 18 // 73 with 31 wk, ezpz More pessimistic: 40 12 16 // 68 with 28 wk, should still hit 100 with Labor Day Maybe like 110-125ish?

2nd weekend true fss drops: Prometheus -56% Covenant -67% Covenant got slammed by competition, with better reception and little competition here maybe can pull like -50% for ~18M. Close race for #1

NC-17 when

Lol, flipped the order on these. Think it should be pretty clear, but just in case: IO2 nearly locked dpw ~50/50

Nearly locked and ~50/50 respectively

Endgame doing 625 would have been a pretty big underperformance. Probably was a small one for TLJ, would be for Secret Wars. That’s kind of it yea, still a big big milestone to hit — although it is becoming more of one or two a year than one every few years: 2024 — 2 2023 — 1 2022 — 2 2021 — 1 2019 — 1 2018 — 3 2017 — 1 2016 — 0 2015 — 2 2014 — 0 2013 — 0 2012 — 1

Jurassic World looking very very likely to fall WW to my eyes. Japan may be able to push into 1.7s if rest of world keeps holding well