They absolutely fumbled Wanda who was the biggest draw of the movie. Chavez wasn’t handled great either, nor was the multiverse. Fake cameo rumors didn’t help but it could have gotten an A anyway with a strong script
FWIW I almost entirely discount his longer term predictions for this reason but his dailies have become very solid for the most part with more of an evenly distributed error spread
Pretty easily top 3 at least I would say (with dragon ball and one piece)
Personally I would go
OP
DS
DB
but it’s not obvious how to weight longevity vs burst strength and so on
Do you have some 2nd wknd show comps @katnisscinnaplex? I feel like that DPW is a tracked record or maybe 2nd to only nwh but it would be a relatively pain to look up
Currently MCU has 1/top DOM 2, 2/4, 3/6, and 4/8. If DPW can land in top 10 (beating IO2 and JW) then 5/10 achieved as well for true perfect balance. Still a stretch goal for now
Tbh I think it’s more likely to miss that range high than low. Geomean is 644.5 so equivalently would take the over on that.
644 would be like 96M 2nd wknd, 47% drop on d11-17, 39% avg drops from there. None of which would be shocking to beat looking at history with summer MCU, well received nonholiday affected Multiverse saga, or DP1/2
How about 620-670
Main caveat for now is we don’t have any track record for R rated MCU 2nd weekends, maybe Fri jump will be very soft, but basically looking good right now
Some of those are affected by later markets but none *too* badly. Existing markets should likely be able to run at at least a -33% avg clip given no more HW competition in quite a while, which would take them to 893+2*43.8=980M. Japan should have a good shot 20+, so still thinking 1B+, how much plus depends a little on Japan and mostly on late legs in current markets
In general this is a solid way to be thinking about it, problem is:
AM1 true fss drop of 51% takes it to 84.75M (60% drop)
FFH true fss drop of 51% tak… oh, it’s the same
38.5M is just a huge drag on the denominator, even if it holds well in reality the goofy fss/ThFSS metric will struggle to have a nice topline