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Legion Again

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Posts posted by Legion Again

    The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by Into the Legion-Verse

    2 minutes ago, Dragoncaine said:

    To be clear, we're waiting until tomorrow to gauge the Sunday comps updates, right? Or Sunday night iirc?

    We’ll get Sunday updates throughout the day but the people on a night schedule will have it be more applicable. The last of those should be Porthos is ~20 hrs or maybe a bit sooner. For morning update people like Kantmiss you wouldn’t see the effect of a Sunday night increase until the mon update.

     

    • Like 3

    Weekend Thread | Transformers $25.6M FRI

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by Into the Legion-Verse

    56 minutes ago, MightyDargon said:

    The Flash maybe but nobody cares about Elemental.

    I mean it’s not even clear Flash will open 50% over Elemental. Like 40 vs 58 would be perfectly reasonable. Even if it comes up low for elemental and high for flash for more of a 25/75 scenario Elemntal will be much closer in the amount of screens taken, just with worse PSA. The blackening will come to squeeze screens a little as well.  
     

    That said there are a good amount of screens to give up from Machine, About my Father, Fast X, Mario, Boogeyman, Mermaid etc

    The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    23 hours ago, Into the Legion-Verse said:

    Still getting some sheets back end up to do this more conveniently for each region each day, but here’s the last few days for my “size-adjusted avg comp” for Sacto:

    T-12 9.16M

    T-11 9.28M

    T-10 9.3M

    T-9 9.55M

    T-8 9.6M

    T-7 9.4M

    T-6 9.5M  

    T-5 9.45M

     

    So today was basically fine under that view — in fact things have been pretty stable, which is the hope. 
     

    Fwiw, without Shazam (the biggest size outlier):

    T-12 9.61M

    T-11 9.64M

    T-10 9.58M

    T-9 9.72M

    T-8 9.71M

    T-7 9.31M

    T-6 9.3M

    T-5 9.14M

    New in bold 

    • Like 1

    The Flash | June 16 2023 | Ezra Miller, Michael Keaton | We’re stoping the count at a Nice 69% RT (it’s 72% For Real) | Please Remember that Your Enjoyment Of The Film is Not Based On Others Opinions And To Be Nice To Each Other

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    21 minutes ago, XXRptimus Primal said:

     

    My current prediction is 450-550 WW. It seems like the film is being well received which is what matters the most. Whether this is a "bomb" or not isn't that relevant since they're rebooting the DC universe after AM2.

    I think it’s fair to say “the reboot is already locked in so the BO doesn’t matter much to long-term anyway.”  
     

    But why not “the reboot is already locked in so the reception doesn’t matter much to long-term anyway either?”

    The Flash | June 16 2023 | Ezra Miller, Michael Keaton | We’re stoping the count at a Nice 69% RT (it’s 72% For Real) | Please Remember that Your Enjoyment Of The Film is Not Based On Others Opinions And To Be Nice To Each Other

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    29 minutes ago, XXRptimus Primal said:

     

    It's a fairly low possibility. Should do something in the $70-85M range.

     

    27 minutes ago, Mulder said:

    Rise is only doing in the high 50s. While there's a super slim possibility Flash does that bad, it's looking at the absolute worst to be in the 60s at least. So this feels borderline impossible honestly.

    👀

    The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by Into the Legion-Verse

    1 hour ago, 21C said:

    I don't think I've seen that many people here arguing vehemently against an opening in the mid 70s or the low 80s. I think everyone's aware both of those are reasonable possibilities at the moment.

    Hi. It’s me. I’m the “arguing vehemently against mid 70s or low 80s and saying more people should be aware they probably aren’t reasonable possibilities at the moment” it’s me.

     

    Edit: FWIW about the larger “is he rest of summer doomed?” stuff, I feel like the middle of Indy U has actually been…pretty fine? Like it could still do 10.5*8.5 or something, maybe? Partially that is just higher uncertainty from being two weeks farther and genre differences, but still.

    • Like 1
    • Haha 1

    The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by Into the Legion-Verse

    10 minutes ago, M37 said:

    I suppose imitation is the sincerest form of flattery

    Indeed it is ;)

     

    10 minutes ago, M37 said:

    but at least use a different color scheme!

    But the copy paste ease 😛   
     

    Maybe I’ll play around with red and blue or something if you prefer but just wanted to get it out there for posterity today.

     

    I have a hard time seeing a CBM match Transformers IM slightly deeper into summer and I think Transformers being EA heavier was weighing on the t-7 pre/fri ratio much more than final. MTC1 fri is not as bad as some regionals p/smaller chains though, it is true. Overall I would be mildly surprised to see fri crack 1.7x

    • Like 1

    The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by Into the Legion-Verse

    1 hour ago, WebSurfer said:

    Heh, really curious to see how next weekend goes for the new releases.

     

    Elemental and The Flash.

     

    How’s it looking for both?

    Elemental is hard to say even being relatively close to release now since as a low hype original animation is has pretty low sales. But vaguely we are expecting 2.5-3.5ish previews and 10-14ish IM so say 30-42ish

     

    Flash is looking like 9-11 and maybe 5.6-6.8 for say 56-68 (though some are expecting higher than that).   
     

    Since people seem to like the grid, here’s my t-7 thoughts in grid form:

    Legion Flash OW ForecastMatrix
    		Thursday Preview Gross Range
    $8.85 $9.20 $9.55 $9.90 $10.25 $10.60 $10.95 $11.30 $11.65
    Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)
    		5.4 $47.79 $49.68 $51.57 $53.46 $55.35 $57.24 $59.13 $61.02 $62.91
    5.6 $49.56 $51.52 $53.48 $55.44 $57.40 $59.36 $61.32 $63.28 $65.24
    5.8 $51.33 $53.36 $55.39 $57.42 $59.45 $61.48 $63.51 $65.54 $67.57
    6 $53.10 $55.20 $57.30 $59.40 $61.50 $63.60 $65.70 $67.80 $69.90
    6.2 $54.87 $57.04 $59.21 $61.38 $63.55 $65.72 $67.89 $70.06 $72.23
    6.4 $56.64 $58.88 $61.12 $63.36 $65.60 $67.84 $70.08 $72.32 $74.56
    6.6 $58.41 $60.72 $63.03 $65.34 $67.65 $69.96 $72.27 $74.58 $76.89
    6.8 $60.18 $62.56 $64.94 $67.32 $69.70 $72.08 $74.46 $76.84 $79.22
    7 $61.95 $64.40 $66.85 $69.30 $71.75 $74.20 $76.65 $79.10 $81.55
    • Like 8
    • Thanks 2

    The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, Mulder said:

    Going to guess that Shazam 2 being the only comp to go up isn't great.

    Still getting some sheets back end up to do this more conveniently for each region each day, but here’s the last few days for my “size-adjusted avg comp” for Sacto:

    T-12 9.16M

    T-11 9.28M

    T-10 9.3M

    T-9 9.55M

    T-8 9.6M

    T-7 9.4M

    T-6 9.5M  

     

    So today was basically fine under that view — in fact things have been pretty stable, which is the hope. 
     

    Fwiw, without Shazam (the biggest size outlier):

    T-12 9.61M

    T-11 9.64M

    T-10 9.58M

    T-9 9.72M

    T-8 9.71M

    T-7 9.31M

    T-6 9.3M

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1

    The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

    Sadly we all know the more likely scenario is Elemental doing boring 35-40M and Flash also boring 75-85M

    If that is your boring flash value you can probably enjoy an exciting weekend 😛   
     

    Elemental will be interesting I feel like with such small original animated property even the t-7 cume and pace don’t provide all that much info on where it will go. I could imagine anything from like 2*11 to 4*13 or something. 

    • Like 2

    Weekend Thread | Transformers $25.6M FRI

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by Into the Legion-Verse

    2 minutes ago, DAJK said:

    Yes, but whether the studio does a sequel or not is irrelevant. Hollywood will always put out movies, and theaters don’t really care what those movies are as long as there’s new output. And there’s always new output.

     

    And honestly, stuff like Fast X/Transformers are the movies that theaters like. People who come to those movies buy lots of food. People who comes to A24 sleeper hits don’t.

    Hmm, not sure about that first paragraph. I would think that when studios are seeing good returns on their money they put more $$ into production and when things have been going poorly they scale down? Maybe it really is fairly inelastic though, new execs also chasing some new dubious potential hits

    Weekend Thread | Transformers $25.6M FRI

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, DAJK said:

    The thing that people don’t consider when proclaiming “theaters are dead” because a movie is a flop because of its budget (say, Fast X makes a lot of money, but not enough for its 340M budget therefore movie theaters are dead, or same for transformers at 200M) is that the budget doesn’t matter to the movie theater. All that matters are raw numbers.

     

    For a movie theater, a 340M blockbuster that “flopped” because it only made 100M domestic is still a bigger hit than an indie sleeper that made 45M domestic on a 2M budget. 
     

    So something like this Transformers overperformance is nothing less than fantastic for movie theaters.

    It matters to the theaters when studios don’t make a sequel though. I agree with the narrow point but money loser 100Ms are in that “give a man a fish he’ll be fed for a day” zone.

    • Like 1
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